Pop Mart dropped near the support level of 148.4 yuan. The real debate among retail investors is not about the 150 yuan mark, but whether the Duan Yongping concept can still prop up the stock price.

Pop Mart is currently trading at 150 yuan, with a weak short-term trend. The stock price is below the 10-day moving average of 157.480 yuan, the 20-day moving average of 156.208 yuan, and the 30-day moving average of 154.677 yuan, reflecting a pullback after an earlier rebound, with the short-term structure yet to be repaired. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is around 156.208 yuan, the upper band around 164.635 yuan, and the lower band around 147.781 yuan; the current price is already close to the lower band level, indicating ongoing market selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 31, showing weak momentum, and approaching the oversold zone, but no clear signs of a bottom have emerged yet. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that the stock has bottomed out just because the price is nearing 150 yuan.

From the sentiment in comments, Pop Mart's market focus is no longer just on the company itself, but also on Duan Yongping-related transactions, support near 150 yuan, and whether market confidence in highly valued consumer toy stocks can be maintained. The bullish camp believes that buying Pop Mart below 150 yuan is a low-risk opportunity. Some feel that buying below 150 yuan is foolproof, while others think further declines present opportunities to accumulate more shares, even hoping for a rebound after large players step in. These comments reflect that there are still investors willing to look for buying opportunities near 150 yuan.

However, there is noticeable unease among bullish comments. Some are concerned about whether the price will break below 149 yuan, others hope it closes above 150.8 yuan, and some believe the most important thing is to hold above 150 yuan. This shows that bulls’ confidence isn’t solid, and many merely hope the psychological level of 150 yuan can hold. From a technical perspective, 150 yuan is a psychological level, but the true first support lies at 148.400 yuan, with the lower Bollinger Band at about 147.781 yuan, which is nearby. Therefore, if 150 yuan only acts as temporary support, it would not be enough to confirm a reversal; the key is whether 148.400 yuan holds firm.

The focus of bearish comments is more concentrated. First, the market questions whether Pop Mart simply rode the wave of a booming industry and may face challenges if that boom fades, testing the company’s intrinsic capabilities and valuation support. Second, investors question Duan Yongping-related trades: some wonder if they are merely symbolic moves, others suspect a trap, and some worry about his paper losses, whether he’s happier as the stock falls, or if he's been caught in a bad position. Third, there is significant dissatisfaction with the stock's weakness; some believe it can't be stopped, no one can save it, and recommend continued shorting, while others predict it might drop to 140 yuan tomorrow.

This sentiment indicates that although the Duan Yongping concept has attracted market attention, it may not be enough to immediately reverse the stock price. When the price continues to fall, what was initially viewed as positive—big player involvement or options trading—can be reinterpreted by the market: Is this savvy accumulation by strong hands, or are retail investors being lured in by the story? This is the major divergence currently surrounding Pop Mart. Bulls believe big players stepping in will drive a rebound, while bears think that even with big player involvement, the stock could continue to fall, possibly trapping those same big players.

The technical picture also supports a cautious outlook. Pop Mart's current price is below several short- to medium-term moving averages, indicating significant overhead resistance. The key inflection point now is around 156 yuan; to repair the short-term structure, the stock must first break through and stabilize above 156 yuan. If it fails to reclaim 156 yuan, even if the price rebounds near 150 yuan, it should only be seen as a technical retracement within a weak consolidation rather than a reversal. The first resistance above is at 153.900 yuan, followed by 164.635 yuan. In other words, for Pop Mart to regain strength, it needs to not only hold above 150 yuan but also reclaim 153.900 yuan and then break through the 156-yuan threshold.

On the downside, 148.400 yuan is the first key support level. The current price is not far from this support. If there’s another short-term pullback, the market will quickly test this support zone. If 148.400 yuan holds, coupled with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing oversold levels, the stock price may experience a technical rebound, initially targeting the 153.900-yuan resistance. However, if 148.400 yuan breaks down, the next support will be near 143.856 yuan. This also explains why some comments mentioned 140 yuan tomorrow because once both the psychological level of 150 yuan and the technical support of 148.400 yuan are breached, the market will naturally shift its focus to the 143-140 yuan region.

The comments reflect the current contradiction among retail investors. On one hand, some believe that below 150 yuan is worth buying, while others wait for further declines before purchasing. On the other hand, some are prepared to exit even at the cost of losing tens of thousands, or they feel the stock price is uncontrollable. This divergence indicates that the market has entered a stage of confidence testing. Bulls see dips as opportunities, bears view every rebound as a chance to exit, while those on the sidelines are waiting to see if Duan Yongping's trades can bring real support. When market focus shifts from company growth to whether a major investor buys, the stock price often becomes more susceptible to sentiment in the short term.

In terms of volume analysis, recent trading volumes have notably decreased compared to the earlier sharp selloff, reflecting that panic selling pressure has eased—a relatively positive sign. If trading volumes gradually decline during a downturn, it suggests the heaviest selling pressure may have weakened compared to earlier. However, the latest rebound has not been accompanied by sustained volume expansion, indicating insufficient buying interest. While selling pressure has cooled, buying power remains too weak to push the stock price back into a breakout. For confirmation of a short-term turnaround, trading volume needs to increase again and drive the price above 153.900 yuan and near 156 yuan.

Therefore, Pop Mart’s risk-reward ratio is moderately low at present. It is not without conditions for a rebound, as the stock price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, and the RSI is nearing oversold territory—indicating panic selling has eased somewhat. However, there are no clear signs of strengthening yet, as it remains below the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, with rebounds lacking strong volume support. For short-term traders, 148.400 yuan is the first line of defense, 143.856 yuan is the next support if it breaks down, and 156 yuan is the watershed for recovery.

Overall, the most crucial factor for Pop Mart at this stage is not whether Duan Yongping wins or loses but whether the stock price can hold above 148.400 yuan. If it holds, there may still be opportunities for a short-term rebound near 150 yuan. If it doesn’t, the market will quickly shift focus to 143.856 yuan or even discuss 140 yuan. The conditions for a true turnaround are clear: breaking back above 153.900 yuan and stabilizing near 156 yuan. Until then, all rebounds should be treated as weak technical recoveries. Retail investors looking to buy on dips should distinguish between 'approaching support' and 'having bottomed out,' and at this stage, clearer confirmation from both price action and volume is still needed.

Key deployment: In the short term, focus on whether support at 148.400 yuan can hold; if it holds, consider betting on a weak rebound. Once the price breaks through and stabilizes above the 156-yuan threshold, there may be an opportunity to recover toward resistance at 164.635 yuan. If support at 148.400 yuan fails, the price could test levels near 143.856 yuan.

Strategy One: Bet on a weak rebound after stabilizing above 148.400 yuan

$UBPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27929.HK)$ | Strike Price 180.10 yuan | Actual Leverage 1.8x | The strike price is still far from the current price, but leverage is relatively low, making this suitable for a mild rebound deployment once the stock price holds above 148.400 yuan; not ideal for chasing sharp rallies.

$BIPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27896.HK)$ | Strike Price 180.10 yuan | Actual Leverage 2.0x | Slightly higher flexibility, suitable for betting on a rebound towards the 156-yuan threshold after the price stabilizes near the lower band.

$CIPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27955.HK)$ | Strike Price 180.10 yuan | Actual Leverage 2.4x | Higher flexibility within the group, suitable for use when rebound momentum improves, but holding risk increases if the price fails to break above 156 yuan.

Strategy Two: Bet on recovery to 164.635 yuan after breaking above 156 yuan

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike price 186.88 yuan | Actual leverage 4.6x | Suitable for chasing recovery momentum after the stock price breaks through 156 yuan, with the strike price still within 30% out-of-the-money; primarily used to capture upward movement towards the 164 yuan resistance.

$HSPOMRT@EC2609B.C (27794.HK)$ | Strike price 189.92 yuan | Actual leverage 5.4x | Higher elasticity, suitable for use when trading momentum improves after breaking through 156 yuan; leans towards short-term momentum chasing strategies.

$GJPOMRT@EC2610B.C (27787.HK)$ | Strike price 193.00 yuan | Actual leverage 5.6x | Higher strike price, suitable for use when the stock price strengthens post-breakthrough and attempts to extend above 164 yuan; not advisable for early deployment while the stock remains weak.

Strategy Three | Chasing bearish momentum after breaking below 148.400 yuan

$MBPOMRT@EP2610A.P (28320.HK)$ | Strike price 143.888 yuan | Actual leverage 3.2x | Strike price close to the 143.856 yuan support zone, suitable for capturing downward moves towards the next support level after breaking below 148.400 yuan.

$UBPOMRT@EP2610A.P (28116.HK)$ | Strike price 138.88 yuan | Actual leverage 3.3x | Lower strike price, suitable for targeting a deeper pullback after breaking below 148.400 yuan; leverage is moderately aggressive.

$HSPOMRT@EP2610A.P (28303.HK)$ | Strike price 138.78 yuan | Actual leverage 3.6x | Also supports bearish deployment after breaking below key support levels; higher elasticity makes it suitable for use when there are signs of an extended downtrend.

Reply to investor inquiries

@漩渦鳴人: There’s dip-buying appeal below 150 yuan, but the real support lies at 148.400 yuan; it’s better to wait until support stabilizes before making decisions; relying solely on 150 yuan as the buying rationale isn't advisable.

@26635370: Whether Duan Avenue starts buying has drawn significant market attention, but for the stock price to truly benefit, it must first hold above 148.400 yuan and reclaim 156 yuan.

@26635370: Whether buying below 150 yuan will lead to losses depends on whether 148.400 yuan holds; if breached, the stock price may test 143.856 yuan again.

@大道当然007: 120 yuan is a relatively low position. At this stage, technically, we should first look at 148.400 yuan and 143.856 yuan; it's not advisable to look too far ahead.

@Captain’s: Whether major players taking delivery will push up the stock price depends on whether trading volume can increase and whether the stock price can recover to 156 yuan. Otherwise, it remains market speculation.

Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

#HKStocks #LiveAnalysis #WarrantPick #WarrantGuide #DerivativesHedging #HKWarrantsJenny #POP MART #09992 #BlueChipStocks #TechnicalAnalysis$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

110K Views