May 18th [HKEX Podcast] Part-2-Yanzhou Energy, Shanghai Electric, China Mobile

1. Yanzhou Energy has returned to the key support/resistance level at HK$15. A breakthrough is required for it to potentially recover towards HK$17.

Yanzhou Energy closed at 14.930 yuan, up 0.460 yuan with a gain of 3.18%. The stock rebounded today but hasn't officially stabilized above 15 yuan yet. From the daily chart structure, the price had previously reached a high of 17.420 yuan before retreating and consolidating. Recently, it has been oscillating around 14 yuan, and today it approached the 15-yuan mark again. The short-term focus is on whether it can break through 15 yuan again and confirm strength.

Technically, the current price of 14.930 yuan is higher than the 10-day moving average at 14.894 yuan and the 30-day moving average at 14.852 yuan, but still below the 20-day moving average at 15.091 yuan. This indicates some signs of short-term recovery, but the pressure from the midline remains unresolved. In terms of the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is about 15.091 yuan, the upper band is approximately 16.461 yuan, and the lower band is roughly 13.720 yuan. The current price is close to just below the middle band. If it can rise above 15.091 yuan and stabilize, the trend may shift from weak rebound to moderately bullish.

Regarding the Relative Strength Index (RSI), RSI6 is approximately 52.819, RSI14 is about 49.583, and RSI21 is around 51.503, all within neutral levels—not overheated nor extremely oversold. This suggests that there is still room for upward repair in the stock price, but a breakout above the resistance level is necessary. Investors believe that if the price breaks above 15 yuan again, it could reverse and rebound towards 17 yuan. The crucial factor is whether 15 yuan can become an effective breakout point. If the price briefly rises above 15 yuan but retreats, the rebound momentum would remain insufficient. However, if it stabilizes above 15.091 yuan, the next target would be 16.461 yuan (the upper Bollinger Band), followed by a potential challenge to 17 yuan.

For investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of 19.9 yuan, the most critical issue at this stage is not 17 yuan but whether the underlying stock can first effectively break through 15 yuan. Since the exercise price of 19.9 yuan is significantly higher than the current price, this represents an aggressive position requiring substantial upside movement. If the stock gradually repairs from 15 yuan to 16.461 yuan and further challenges 17 yuan, the performance of related call warrants might improve more easily; however, if the stock fails to stabilize above 15 yuan, the warrants will face pressure from time decay and insufficient rebound in the underlying stock.

Overall, Yanzhou Energy’s rebound today helps improve short-term sentiment, but a confirmed reversal has yet to be established. The immediate turning point is between HK$15 and HK$15.091; breaking through and stabilizing above this range would set the stage for further advances towards HK$16.461 and HK$17. If pressure resumes and the price falls back, the stock may continue to consolidate weakly near the HK$14 to HK$15 range. $HSYKENR@EC2611A.C (26107.HK)$$BIYKENR@EC2611A.C (26206.HK)$$CIYKENR@EP2611A.P (27119.HK)$

2. Shanghai Electric surged, challenging the resistance level at HK$4.94. The key short-term factor is whether it can stabilize above the upper shadow pressure zone.

Shanghai Electric closed at 4.750 yuan, up 0.350 yuan with a gain of 7.95%. The stock rose sharply today, reaching a high of 5.030 yuan and a low of 4.370 yuan, with a trading volume of 1.366 billion yuan. The trend shifted from recent consolidation near lows to a rapid breakout. From the daily chart perspective, the stock has broken above the 10-day moving average at 4.217 yuan, the 20-day moving average at 4.070 yuan, and the 30-day moving average at 4.024 yuan, showing clear improvement in short-term strength.

In terms of Bollinger Bands, the middle band is about 4.070 yuan, the upper band is approximately 4.534 yuan, and the lower band is roughly 3.605 yuan. The current price has risen above the upper band, indicating a strong short-term expansion. However, this also reflects that the rally was rapid, making it prone to high volatility. Today’s high reached 5.030 yuan, but it closed at 4.750 yuan, leaving a long upper shadow, suggesting temporary selling pressure around 5 yuan. Short-term confirmation of support is needed.

Regarding the Relative Strength Index (RSI), RSI6 is approximately 80.056, RSI14 is about 71.640, and RSI21 is around 61.604, all entering relatively high levels. This doesn't necessarily mean the stock will immediately retreat, but it does indicate that the risk of chasing gains has significantly increased. If new highs are not achieved soon, profit-taking could occur.

Investors are asking whether 4.94 yuan can hold steady; this level can be seen as a short-term confirmation point for strength or weakness. As today's high reached 5.030 yuan but failed to close above 4.94 yuan, it indicates that the range between 4.94 yuan and 5.03 yuan is currently an area of overhead resistance. If the price can rise back above 4.94 yuan tomorrow and close firmly, the upward trend would confirm continuation, giving the market a chance to retest the 5.03 yuan high.

Conversely, if the stock price still fails to stabilize above 4.94 yuan tomorrow, or even drops below 4.75 yuan, then today’s sharp rise might just be profit-taking after short-term capital pushed prices higher. The stock could retreat to test the upper Bollinger Band near 4.534 yuan. If it loses support at 4.534 yuan, short-term bullish momentum will noticeably weaken, with the next key support around the 10-day moving average at 4.217 yuan.

Overall, Shanghai Electric's price action has shown clear signs of strengthening today. However, due to the sharp increase, elevated RSI, and the appearance of an upper shadow at the highs, it’s not advisable to chase the upward movement blindly in the short term. Stabilizing above HK$4.94 would indicate continued bullish momentum; otherwise, the stock is likely to oscillate within the range of HK$4.53 to HK$5.03. $SG-SHEC@EC2702A.C (23840.HK)$$BI-SHEC@EC2702A.C (25379.HK)$

4. China Mobile remains strongly sideways near its highs, with HK$94.1 still as the extended target. Support should first be watched around HK$86.

China Mobile closed at HK$86.400, up HK$0.200 or 0.23%. Recently, the share price has been advancing along the short-term moving averages, with the recent high reaching HK$87.150, keeping the current price close to the peak region. Overall, the trend remains strong. From the daily chart perspective, the price has moved above the 10-day moving average at HK$85.785, the 20-day moving average at HK$84.885, and the 30-day moving average at HK$83.577, with the short-term uptrend intact.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is approximately 84.885 yuan, the upper band around 87.433 yuan, and the lower band near 82.337 yuan. At 86.400 yuan, the current price is still above the middle band but approaching the upper band, indicating that while the stock remains strong, upside potential in the short term is becoming constrained. To challenge higher levels, the price first needs to break through the recent high at 87.150 yuan before testing the upper Bollinger Band at 87.433 yuan.

In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), RSI6 is about 68.481, RSI14 around 70.906, and RSI21 approximately 67.064, reflecting relatively high short-term levels. This suggests that stock momentum remains strong but also highlights increasing risks of chasing the price higher. If it fails to break through the 87.15 yuan to 87.43 yuan zone, the stock may consolidate or pull back from current highs.

Investors believe that the price will certainly reach 94.1 yuan post-dividend distribution, which reflects a clear bullish sentiment. In terms of current technical positioning, 94.1 yuan can be viewed as an aggressive extended target, but should not yet be treated as a confirmed target. Given the distance from the current price to 94.1 yuan, the stock must first overcome the resistance at the upper band near 87.43 yuan and maintain an upward trend before gradually opening up further upside potential.

For long-term holders of bull certificates with a strike price of 76 yuan, there is still considerable buffer between the current stock price and 76 yuan. As long as China Mobile remains stable near the lower Bollinger Band at 82.337 yuan and the middle band at 84.885 yuan, the risk to bull certificates does not appear immediately significant. However, since the stock is trading at a relatively high level, breaking below the 10-day moving average at 85.785 yuan might trigger some profit-taking. A drop below the middle band at 84.885 yuan would necessitate reassessment of the bull certificate holding risk.

Overall, China Mobile remains in a strong high-level consolidation pattern. The short-term watershed lies between 85.785 yuan and 84.885 yuan; as long as it stays above this level, the uptrend remains intact. Initial resistance is seen at 87.150 yuan to 87.433 yuan. The target of 94.1 yuan is still an optimistic extension for now, but a confirmed breakout would require overcoming the current high-pressure zone first. $CI-CMOB@EC2607A.C (24937.HK)$$BI-CMOB@EC2609A.C (24413.HK)$$UB#C MOBRC2709C.C (63412.HK)$$BI#C MOBRC2609A.C (65773.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should combine other information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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