May 18th [HKEX Podcast] Part-1-Hang Seng Index, ZhiPu, ChangFei Optical Fiber Cable

1. After the Hang Seng Index broke below the Bollinger Bands' middle band, it weakened; the bull certificate area around 25,350 points has started to become a battleground.

The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,675.18 points, down 287.55 points or 1.11%. Observing from the daily chart structure, after a recent rebound, the index failed to stabilize above the Bollinger Bands midline of 26,139.86 points, then retreated again, reflecting weakening short-term rebound momentum. Currently, the upper band of the Bollinger Bands is around 26,685.70 points, and the lower band is approximately 25,594.02 points; the latest close is already very close to the lower band level, indicating that market sentiment is deteriorating rapidly.

In terms of moving averages, the 10-day MA is around 26,230 points, the 20-day MA is about 26,139 points, and the 30-day MA is near 26,026 points. The current price has broken below all short-term MAs, showing renewed weakness in the short term. Particularly, after the latest bearish candle broke through multiple MAs, the market began to worry that the previous rebound was only a technical pullback rather than a true trend reversal. If it fails to stabilize within the 25,800–26,000 point range going forward, the index may test further downside towards 25,500 points or even lower levels.

Regarding the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the RSI6 has dropped to around 28, RSI14 is approximately 42, and RSI21 is about 47. In the short term, these indicators have started to weaken, even approaching oversold territory. This also explains why there are noticeable differences in the market. A group of bullish investors believe that after the sharp drop in RSI in the short term, the market could see a technical rebound. Moreover, the area around the Bollinger Bands lower band of 25,594 points provides some support, so they continue to deploy bull certificates and use the stop-loss level of 25,350 points as a short-term rebound position.

However, more bearish investors are clearly more concerned that the trend is starting to turn sour. Some in the market have pointed out that large consecutive bearish candles have recently appeared, suggesting selling pressure is beginning to increase. If the 25,500-point level is breached, the next move could quickly test the 24,900-point level, prompting some to opt for deploying bear certificates with a 26,500-point stop-loss as part of their short-term bearish strategy.

From a trend analysis perspective, the most crucial position has now shifted to around the 25,500-point level. With the lower Bollinger Band very close to the current price, if the market can stabilize above 25,500 points early tomorrow and rebound above 25,800 points, there may still be opportunities for a short-term technical rebound, or even a re-challenge of the 26,000-point level. This is also an important reason why bullish investors are still willing to hold bull certificates.

On the other hand, if the 25,500-point level is officially breached, it would indicate that the index has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band, confirming a return to a weaker trading range. At that point, market panic could escalate further, increasing the risk of testing the 25,000- to 24,900-point region. Given that the daily structure has already weakened again, even if a rebound occurs, the market will still focus on whether the rebound is strong enough to push back above the 10-day moving average; otherwise, the overall trend will remain weak and volatile.

Regarding the bullish investors' mention of deploying bull certificates at the 25,350-point level, this is currently considered a high-risk short-term rebound play. Since the stop-loss level is not far from the current price, a gap-down opening or sharp decline early tomorrow could quickly expose related bull certificates to stop-loss risks. Therefore, the key isn't simply being bullish but whether the market can hold above the 25,500-point support.

As for the bearish investors' deployment of bear certificates at the 26,500-point level, this is relatively safer at present. As 26,500 points is near the recent rebound high and also close to the upper Bollinger resistance zone, as long as the index fails to rise above 26,200 points, bear certificates still offer decent short-term betting value. However, if unexpected news triggers a rapid rebound, risk control for bear certificates will also need attention.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index has now entered a period of choosing short-term direction. The area around 25,500 points will be the most critical watershed for tomorrow. If it holds, the market may still have the opportunity for a technical rebound. However, if it breaks down, market sentiment could quickly turn pessimistic, potentially leading to a retest of lower levels. $UB-HSI @EC2609B.C (27924.HK)$$JP-HSI @EP2608B.P (26359.HK)$$BI#HSI RC2809L.C (55298.HK)$

2. After a sharp rise, Zhipu challenges the 1,200-yuan mark; those chasing highs should be mindful of upper track pressure.

Zhipu closed at 1,137.000 yuan, up 97.000 yuan, or 9.33%. The stock price surged significantly today, peaking at 1,160.000 yuan with a low of 1,012.000 yuan, and turnover reaching 10.97 billion yuan, reflecting a clear strengthening in short-term buying. From a daily chart perspective, the stock price has broken above the 10-day moving average at 990.200 yuan, the 20-day moving average at 956.600 yuan, and the 30-day moving average at 936.883 yuan, while approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 1,144.13 yuan, indicating a strong breakout followed by consolidation at higher levels.

Technically, Zhipu remains in an uptrend, but today's surge was steep. The current price of 1,137 yuan is already close to the upper Bollinger Band at 1,144.13 yuan, and the intraday high hit 1,160 yuan, meaning short-term upward pressure is building. On the RSI side, the 6-day RSI is about 65.869, the 14-day RSI is about 62.333, and the 21-day RSI is about 60.954, all at relatively strong levels but not showing extreme overheating. This suggests the stock still has the potential to test higher levels, but the pressure from profit-taking after such a sharp rise cannot be ignored.

Investors are asking if there’s a chance to see 1,200 yuan tomorrow. Based on the current trend, 1,200 yuan is not entirely out of reach, but two conditions need confirmation. First, the stock price must hold near today’s closing level and avoid a quick drop below 1,100 yuan. Second, tomorrow’s trading needs to break above today’s high of 1,160 yuan. If it surpasses 1,160 yuan and maintains strength, the market will have the conditions to challenge 1,200 yuan. If it merely gaps higher without breaking through, it could easily lead to short-term profit-taking.

Therefore, 1200 yuan can be considered a strong extended target, rather than a confirmed support or must-reach target at this stage. A more reasonable short-term observation range is whether the price can stabilize between 1137 yuan and 1160 yuan; if stabilized and broken through, 1200 yuan will become the next market focus. Conversely, if the stock price falls back below 1100 yuan, it indicates that today's breakout momentum is starting to weaken, and the short-term trend may first retest the area above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages.

As for investors asking why there are no put warrants in the CBBC market, this reflects that the market is beginning to look for reverse hedging tools after a sharp rise. However, based solely on the current technical trends and commentary content, we can only judge that investors have bearish or hedging needs, but cannot deduce the reasons behind the issuer's supply. From a trading perspective, Zhipu remains a strong stock for now. If there are no put warrants available, investors should not forcibly seek alternative instruments to chase bearish bets. Instead, they should wait until the stock price clearly breaks below short-term support before determining if the strength has truly reversed to weakness.

Overall, Zhipu remains relatively strong in the short term, with 1200 yuan potentially becoming the market's next challenge level, but the key lies in whether it can break through 1160 yuan and stabilize. If trading volume continues to increase tomorrow, the uptrend could persist; otherwise, if it fails to break through 1160 yuan, beware of a pullback after a rapid rise.

After a sharp rise, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable retraced, but 250 yuan still presents an opportunity—provided it can first regain its short-term strength zone.

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable closed at 240.600 yuan, up 17.600 yuan, with a gain of 7.89%. The stock rebounded noticeably today, reaching as high as 248.800 yuan from a low of 222.000 yuan, with a turnover of 3.539 billion yuan, reflecting renewed short-term capital inflows. However, looking at the daily chart, the stock had previously peaked at 283.000 yuan before retreating to near the short-term moving averages. Although it rebounded today, it failed to fully return to the previous high after the sharp rise. Thus, the current situation reflects a recovery attempt by a strong stock after a correction, rather than a renewed breakout.

Technically, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable’s current price of 240.600 yuan is below the 10-day moving average of 243.320 yuan but remains above the 20-day moving average at 233.610 yuan and the 30-day moving average at 226.517 yuan. This shows that the medium- and short-term uptrend structure remains intact, although short-term momentum still needs confirmation. As for the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is around 233.610 yuan, the upper band at 270.529 yuan, and the lower band at 196.691 yuan. The stock price is still above the middle band, indicating overall strength. However, to challenge 250 yuan again, it first needs to break above the 10-day moving average at 243.320 yuan and surpass today’s high of 248.800 yuan.

Regarding the Relative Strength Index (RSI), RSI6 is approximately 49.823, RSI14 is about 53.443, and RSI21 is roughly 56.304, representing a neutral-to-strong level. This position is not overheated nor oversold, suggesting room for further rebounds. However, the short-term direction depends on whether the stock can stabilize above 240 yuan to 243 yuan. If it can hold above 240 yuan tomorrow and break through 248.800 yuan, the 250 yuan level mentioned in market sentiment could become the next test target.

Investors believe the stock has the potential to reach 250 yuan, which aligns with the current technical positioning since today’s high was close to 250 yuan, just shy of touching it. However, 250 yuan isn’t yet a confirmed breakout level but rather a short-term resistance point. If the stock merely rebounds to around 248 yuan to 250 yuan and faces pressure, it might retreat again to test the 233 yuan to 240 yuan region in the short term.

For investors holding call warrants with a strike price of 255.2 yuan, the key lies in whether the stock price can quickly break through 250 yuan and continue its upward trend. Since 255.2 yuan is higher than the current price, this represents a bet requiring further upside in the underlying stock to perform well. If the stock can break through 250 yuan, the elasticity of call warrants with a strike price of 255.2 yuan would be more easily unlocked. However, if the stock fails to break through 250 yuan or retreats to near the 20-day moving average at 233.610 yuan, the time value and price volatility pressure on the call warrants will increase.

Overall, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable has not yet broken its medium- and short-term uptrend structure, but in the short term, it needs to reclaim the 10-day moving average and break through 248.800 yuan to confirm a new round of challenges toward 250 yuan. Initial support can be seen at 233.610 yuan; if breached, the trend could shift from a strong recovery to a weaker consolidation. Resistance lies between 248.800 yuan and 250 yuan, with a break above these levels required to restore market confidence.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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