MINIMAX holding above 800 still doesn't indicate a strong reversal; the real focus for retail investors is whether they can shake off the emotional pressure of being 'weaker than Zhipu.'

The previous day (August 18) closed at 800.000 yuan, and the short-term trend is in a very awkward position. The closing price was just around 800 yuan, also close to the 20-day moving average of 795.450 yuan. On the surface, it hasn’t shown a clear breakdown, but it has also failed to form a strong breakout. This kind of position easily creates divergence among retail investors because the bullish side believes that the stock price remains above a key area, and as long as it doesn't fall below 763 yuan, there is still a chance to rebound upward; however, the bearish side thinks the stock price lacks upward momentum, failing to break through even the resistance level at 827 yuan, and will likely continue consolidating without significant capital inflow.

From the comments, it’s evident that market sentiment toward MINIMAX isn’t purely bearish; instead, feelings of disappointment, waiting, comparison, and speculation for a rebound coexist. Bullish comments mainly focus on three directions.

First, from a technical perspective, some still believe that the 763-yuan level should not be breached. If the stock holds above this low and stabilizes again at 800 yuan, the stock price may have a chance to recover.

Second, some investors are still hoping for the stock price to return above 850 yuan, with some even mentioning 900 yuan, reflecting that those holding positions at higher levels are still hoping for a significant rebound to repair their trapped positions.

Third, there is still a group of investors in the market who believe in MINIMAX's AI concept and edge AI story, thinking that if external catalysts align, the stock price may recover from an emotionally low position.

However, within these bullish sentiments lies noticeable unease. Some mentioned buying above 800 yuan, others said they were “sitting at the peak,” and some expressed holding stocks for nearly two months, falling from over 1,000 yuan to the current level, which is becoming unbearable. This reflects that the confidence of bulls isn’t stable, and more often than not, they’re just waiting for a rebound after being stuck, rather than new funds entering to push prices up significantly. When the market's bullish rationale shifts from “strong buying” to “hoping to break even,” any rebound could easily encounter selling pressure as trapped investors try to exit.

The core of the bearish comments is clear: the market believes that MINIMAX is significantly weaker than Zhipu. Many investors repeatedly mentioned $KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (02513.HK)$ Zhipu rises, MINIMAX falls, or they think funds flow to leading stocks, and MINIMAX can't keep up with the rhythm. This kind of comparative sentiment will put pressure on the short-term stock price because within the same AI concept sector, if funds choose stronger targets, weaker stocks may not receive immediate capital support even if they have potential themes. What retail investors fear most is not that MINIMAX lacks a concept, but that it has one yet capital doesn’t buy, resulting in the stock price heading towards 'one heaven, one hell.'

Technical trends also support this neutral-to-weak assessment. MINIMAX’s closing price yesterday was HKD 800, close to the 20-day moving average at 795.450, with the 10-day line around 783.750 providing short-term support below. This indicates that the stock price hasn’t completely broken down in the short term but hasn’t truly escaped consolidation either. The middle Bollinger Band axis is approximately 795.450, the upper band is about 929.080, and the lower band is around 661.820. The current price is just hovering near the middle axis, failing to show a significant upward breakout. If the stock price merely stays around 800, technically speaking, it can only be considered temporarily stable, not a sign of strengthening.

The crucial watershed is at 795 yuan. As long as the stock price holds steady near 795 to 800 yuan, there is still a chance for short-term consolidation and preparation for another attempt to challenge the resistance at 827 yuan. However, if it breaks back below 795 yuan, especially if it falls below 763 yuan again, market sentiment will quickly turn bearish because this would negate the expectation of 'stabilization around 800 yuan.' If 763 yuan is lost, the next key support level will be around 720 yuan, at which point many investors waiting for a rebound may face renewed pressure.

On the upside, 827 yuan is the first position that needs to be broken through. Many investors are concerned about 850 yuan, and some hope the stock price can rise above 850 yuan, but technically it cannot bypass the 827 yuan level. If MINIMAX cannot even break through 827 yuan, anything above 850 yuan remains an aspiration rather than a confirmed short-term target. Only after the stock price stabilizes above 795 yuan and then breaks through 827 yuan will the market have grounds to discuss the 850-862 yuan range again. As for higher levels like 900 yuan, the market must first confirm a strengthening trend; otherwise, looking too high too soon could easily lead to emotionally-driven waiting.

Volume analysis also reflects a cautious stance from investors. Recent trading volume has noticeably contracted compared to earlier highs, indicating reduced willingness to chase prices. Although there has been a recent rebound, it lacks significant volume support, showing insufficient upward momentum. For a volatile stock, a rebound without corresponding volume can easily turn into a technical pullback rather than the start of a new uptrend. This also explains why market chatter includes sentiments like 'false rally,' 'quick up and down,' and 'hard to predict,' as price fluctuations exist but direction confirmation is lacking.

There are four common questions.

First, whether the 800 level can hold.

Second, whether 763 is the true bottom.

Third, whether it can keep up with Zhipu’s pace.

Fourth, whether there is still a chance to return above 850.

Based on the current technical structure, the 800 level is only temporarily stable, not a confirmed reversal; 763 is an important support, but whether it is the bottom depends on whether it can hold steady and rebound strongly; whether it can catch up with Zhipu depends on whether capital flows back to MINIMAX rather than solely relying on the concept; as for levels above 850, it must first break through 827 and then challenge 862 before it becomes convincing.

Thus, MINIMAX currently offers neutral risk-reward potential. There are still opportunities for a short-term rebound, but it's not yet time for blind buying. For holders, the 795-800 yuan range is a short-term observation zone; holding above it allows for anticipation of a breakthrough at 827 yuan; breaking through 827 yuan opens the possibility of challenging levels above 850 yuan. For short-term speculative capital, the ideal signal isn’t just a single-day spike but a volume-supported breakout above 827 yuan that doesn’t quickly retreat back to near 800 yuan. If the stock price falls below 763 yuan, it indicates consolidation failure, and attention should shift to the next support level at 720 yuan.

Overall, what MINIMAX needs most now is not mere cheerleading but proving its worth by attracting capital inflows. The 800 yuan level is just the first step, 827 yuan is the threshold for short-term strength, and 862 yuan represents where a broader rebound could expand. Until these levels are breached, the market will continue comparing it with Zhipu, and as long as such comparisons remain negative, the stock price will likely remain under pressure. At this stage, the most reasonable assessment is: holding above 795-800 yuan leaves room for consolidation and rebound; breaking through 827 yuan creates conditions for short-term momentum; failing to hold 763 yuan requires caution against another test of 720 yuan.

Reply to some investors' views:

@阿峰哥哥: Near 777 yuan is close to the short-term support zone, but whether it is the bottom still depends on whether 763 yuan can hold and whether the rebound can break through 827 yuan again.

@火箭001: It's not advisable to chase in just because of a 'buy now' comment. MINIMAX is still consolidating within a range; we need to see if it can stabilize at 795 yuan and break through 827 yuan.

@力戰到底: To catch up after lagging behind, the stock price must first stabilize near 800 yuan and then break through 827 yuan; otherwise, it may still just be weak consolidation.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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