Quick Look at the Latest Portfolio of the 24-Year-Old 'AI Stock Guru': 60% Hedged Against Semiconductor Downturn

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Source: Odaily Planet Daily

No confidentiality requested, nor a complete sell-off! The newly minted 'AI stock guru' Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund Situational Awareness LP officially released its 13F filing this evening.

Odaily Note: For details on Leopold Aschenbrenner’s personal story, see 'From SBF’s protégé to turning $225 million into $5.5 billion in just one year.'

This means that our first assumption in this morning's article, 'Could Be Revealed Today, Internet Awaits the Portfolio Answer from the 24-Year-Old AI Stock Guru,' was correct. Situational Awareness LP submitted the filing quite late on the May 15 deadline, preventing the SEC from posting it on their website that day, leaving the market to endure another weekend before the SEC resumed work on Monday and revealed the fund's holdings.

According to this latest 13F filing, as of March 31, 2026,The nominal total holdings of Situational Awareness LP have increased to $13.7 billion, more than doubling (a 148% increase) from $5.52 billion as of December 31 last year.

Odaily Note: It is important to note that under the statistical framework of US equity 13F filings, the market value of options assets typically reflects the 'notional value' of the underlying stocks rather than the actual premium costs paid by the fund for those options. This implies that while the fund has constructed a semiconductor hedging wall with hundreds of billions in notional assets, its actual cash outlay (maximum loss) is much smaller, representing a classic case of highly leveraged macro hedging.

Moreover, net inflows this quarter accounted for 32.51% of the fund’s total holdings, indicating that the explosive growth in the fund’s size was not solely due to portfolio appreciation but also involved significant new external capital subscriptions (i.e., fresh capital injections).

The filing also shows that Situational Awareness LP made sweeping portfolio adjustments in the first quarter of this year.

New Purchases: 23 stocks (including options);

Added To: 9 stocks;

Sold out of: 10 stocks (including options);

Reduced holdings in: 4 stocks (including options).

Odaily Note: The above chart only covers new purchases exceeding 100 million USD. For the full list of 23 new purchases, click on the 'portal' to view.

First, let's look at the new moves, which is the most shocking information in Situational Awareness LP’s entire 13F report —— In the first quarter, the fund systematically hedged risks in the AI semiconductor and computing power hardware sectors through a large-scale put option (PUT) position.

Let’s directly examine the data:

SMH PUT (VanEck Semiconductor Core ETF Put Option): Accounted for 14.94% (market value of $2.04 billion) —— The largest new position;

NVDA PUT (NVIDIA Put Option): Accounted for 11.47% (market value of $1.56 billion) —— The second-largest new position;

ORCL PUT (Oracle Put Option): Accounted for 7.84%;

AVGO PUT (Broadcom Put Option): Accounted for 7.36%;

AMD PUT (AMD Put Option): Accounted for 7.09%;

Just these top five put option holdings account for 48.7% of Situational Awareness LP’s total nominal portfolio value of $13.7 billion.If we include the following puts on Micron (MU), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), ASML Holding (ASML), and Intel (INTC),The fund has over 60% of its nominal positions betting on or hedging against a decline or sharp volatility in core AI hardware stocks.

Additionally, it is worth noting thatSituational Awareness LP simultaneously purchased both call and put options for the same stock, such as buying Micron put options (MU PUT, 4.27%) while also purchasing MU CALL (3.09%), and buying Taiwan Semiconductor put options (TSM PUT, 3.91%) while also purchasing TSM CALL (2.59%).

This is a common two-way bet strategy used by hedge funds. It indicates that the fund believes Micron (memory chips) and Taiwan Semiconductor (contract manufacturing) may experience share price fluctuations far exceeding market expectations in their upcoming earnings reports or industry cycles through 2026 due to geopolitical factors or extreme supply-demand imbalances — as long as there is sufficient one-way movement, profits can be made on both sides.

Regarding increased positions, Situational Awareness LP opted not to use options but instead added to nine stocks via common shares.

In the first quarter, Situational Awareness LP slightly increased its position in SanDisk (SNDK) by 85,000 shares, bringing the total holding to 1.14 million shares with a market value of $724 million, accounting for 5.30% of the entire portfolio.This is also one of the very few super-heavyweight stocks in Situational Awareness LP's holdings that exists entirely in the form of common stock.

Another significant move worth noting is thatSituational Awareness LP significantly increased its position in CoreWeave (CRWV) by over 1.07 million shares in the first quarter, bringing the holding value to $556 million, accounting for 4.07% of its portfolio.CoreWeave is one of the most closely watched infrastructure companies in the AI GPU cloud services sector and an important partner in the NVIDIA ecosystem. After its initial public offering (IPO), Situational Awareness LP quickly incorporated it into its core portfolio and aggressively added to its position. This indicates that while the fund has shorted NVIDIA's short-term valuation (via PUT options), it remains highly bullish on cloud giants that directly convert GPUs into computing power for lease to various models.

Additionally, Situational Awareness LP also increased its positions in computing or power infrastructure companies such as KEEL, IREN, APLD, RIOT, CLSK, and BTDR, continuing the logic advocated by Leopold Aschenbrenner that 'electricity is the new oil.'

In terms of liquidation,The largest move by Situational Awareness LP was completely unloading its leveraged bullish options on Intel (INTC CALL).In the previous disclosure period, Situational Awareness LP had bet more than 13% of its portfolio on Intel call options (up to 20.23 million option contracts), representing a highly leveraged directional bet. This quarter, it liquidated the entire position, switching to holding the underlying stock instead (0.07%), but with a very small allocation.

Moreover, Situational Awareness LP fully exited its positions in LITE (previous weighting of 8.68%) and COHR (previous quarter weighting of 1.61%). Both LITE and COHR are leading global giants in optical communication chips and optical transceiver modules.This divestment signifies that Situational Awareness LP is withdrawing from the AI optical module/network hardware sector.

Situational Awareness LP fully exited CIFR (previous weight 2.80%) and HUT (previous weight 0.72%) in the first quarter, both of which are cryptocurrency mining companies (including CORZ, which was reduced in the next section). Considering the increased positions in similar companies such as RIOT, CLSK, and BTDR, this might just be a routine portfolio adjustment.

Finally, looking at the reduced positions,Bloom Energy (BE) was the largest holding disclosed in Situational Awareness LP's previous 13F filing. In the first quarter, the fund reduced its position by 3.59 million shares, with the portfolio weight dropping sharply from 15.87% in the previous quarter to 6.42%.

Bloom Energy specializes in solid oxide fuel cell technology and is a core target for 'on-site independent power generation' in data centers, bypassing the traditional power grid. Considering the remaining position is still substantial, the reduction does not necessarily indicate that Situational Awareness LP no longer favors the company; it is more likely a routine profit-taking action.

CoreWeave's call options (CRWV CALL) were the second-largest reduction in Situational Awareness LP's portfolio (with the position weight plummeting from 14.04% to 1.03%).As mentioned earlier, the fund has switched to holding CRWV in the form of common stock, so this is more of a deleveraging operation.

Situational Awareness LP also reduced its position in Core Scientific (CORZ) by 2.74 million shares, with the portfolio weight dropping from 7.59% to 2.84%. CORZ is a leading company transitioning from Bitcoin mining to AI computing power hosting. However, considering that Situational Awareness LP added positions in other mining companies still in their transition phase with more attractive valuations this quarter, the reduction in CORZ appears to be partial profit-taking.

If one only looks at the surface data of this 13F filing, many might draw a simplistic conclusion — Leopold Aschenbrenner, who once proclaimed 'AGI by 2027,' is now bearish on AI across the board.

But the reality is obviously not so simple.Within Situational Awareness LP’s portfolio structure, there are actually two seemingly contradictory yet highly unified main themes coexisting.

On one hand, there is extreme caution towards the short-term valuation bubble in the 'chip sector.'Situational Awareness LP has used a massive PUT (put option) position to essentially buy 'collapse insurance' for nearly the entire AI semiconductor industry chain, including NVIDIA, Broadcom, and others.

On the other hand, there is an almost obsessive optimism about the long-term infrastructure demand for AI. Whether it's CoreWeave, Bloom Energy, or a series of companies related to electricity, transformers, and data centers, they all point to the same certainty — the computational power war for AI has entered deep waters.

This may also be Situational Awareness LP’s most core judgment at present.What will truly be scarce in the future might not be the GPU chips themselves, but rather the energy, power systems, and data center infrastructure needed to keep these GPUs running.GPUs can continue to scale up production, and advanced process nodes will eventually ramp up gradually, but megawatt-level power supply capacity, transformers, transmission systems, and large-scale data center construction cycles are difficult to replicate simultaneously in a short period of time.Compared to the 'selling picks and shovels' logic that has already been fully priced in by the market, Leopold Aschenbrenner seems more focused on where the true bottlenecks may appear in the next phase of the AI industry.

This also explains why Situational Awareness LP is making large-scale purchases of semiconductor put options to hedge against the sharp volatility risks in the AI hardware sector, while continuing to hold significant positions in GPU cloud services, power, and computing infrastructure assets.

In a sense, this 13F filing is less a simple disclosure of holdings and more akin to Leopold Aschenbrenner's roadmap judgment on the next phase of evolution in the AI industry chain.

When a once-celebrated genius investor who rose to fame by going all-in on AI starts deploying billions of dollars in notional positions to insure the AI sector, it indicates at least one thing — even the most steadfast AI bulls of this era have begun to take volatility seriously.

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