SpaceX IPO is coming soon! Will space stocks get a boost?
The IPO of the century is here! SpaceX has set the target listing date: June 12! What opportunities should we pay attention to?
SpaceX, the global leader in commercial aerospace under Elon Musk, recently announced significant progress.: The company has significantly moved up its IPO timeline and is expected to officially file the prospectus as early as May 21, start a global roadshow on June 4, and list on Nasdaq as early as June 12.
This IPO is expected to raise up to $80 billion or more, with the market valuation targeting between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, potentially creating the largest IPO in human capital markets history.
This massive funding round will focus on two strategic areas: fully accelerating the large-scale regular launches of the next-generation 'Starship' project, and heavily investing in building and deploying a near-Earth orbit 'space data center' network.
Recent Major Progress
1. Capital Strategy: Giant backing, stock split lowers retail investor threshold
Launch of '1-for-5' stock split plan:SpaceX has notified shareholders via email that the company will execute a 5-for-1 stock split, reducing the fair market value per share from $526.59 to approximately $105.32.This move aims to lower the threshold and attract more retail investors to subscribe.
Musk 'not selling a single share':In response to market concerns about executives cashing out,Musk has clearly stated via the X platform that he will not sell any SpaceX shares.This is of significant reference value in assessing potential selling pressure for this IPO and also addresses investor concerns about major shareholders cashing out, injecting confidence into the market.
Top-tier institutions entering with large positions: According to reports citing insiders, BlackRock, the world's largest asset management giant, is considering participating in SpaceX's offering with an investment ranging from $5 billion to $10 billion. The final investment amount will depend on SpaceX's IPO pricing and other relevant factors.If the deal is completed, it will be one of the largest single IPO subscriptions in nearly 25 years.
2. Business Landscape: Integration of xAI computing power, major companies crossing industries
“SpaceX + xAI” Financial Landscape:One of the key highlights of this IPO is that SpaceX has officially incorporated Musk’s AI unicorn, xAI, into its business operations. The prospectus will disclose to the public for the first time the detailed financials of the two merged companies, which is also the core basis for Wall Street to evaluate its $2 trillion valuation loop.
Partnering with Google to Build a 'Space Computing Network': According to reports, tech giant Google (Alphabet) is in deep negotiations with SpaceX, planning to send its orbital data center equipment into space via Starship. AI computing power is rapidly expanding from the ground to low-Earth orbit.
3. Hardware Synergy: Starship V3 First Flight Upgrade
Next-Gen Starship’s 12th Test Flight:The 12th test flight of SpaceX’s newly designed Starship (Starship V3) is scheduled to launch at 5:30 PM Central Time on May 19 from the Starbase facility in Texas. As the 'strongest advertisement' before the release of the prospectus, the V3 version undergoes a revolutionary redesign: the entire rocket is equipped with the newly evolved Raptor 3 engine, significantly boosting thrust and thermal management limits; meanwhile, the Super Heavy booster, the upper stage of Starship, and Launch Pad 2 have all been redesigned to fully meet the stringent requirements for rapid full reusability, in-orbit refueling, and future manned Mars missions.
This flight marks the first launch after a major upgrade of Starship,SpaceX is now facing increasing pressure to prove that its hardware can be used for NASA's Artemis program.
Related opportunity layout
The listing of a giant often marks the starting point of an industry reshuffle,SpaceX’s attempt at the largest IPO in history is expected to bring a super catalyst for space and AI themes. What are the related concept stocks worth watching?
Previous article published on December 10 last year“Is Musk Building Another Trillion-Dollar Empire? SpaceX Listing Rumors Ignite Market; These Concept Stocks Are Worth Watching!”and the article on March 25 this year "Countdown to the IPO of the century! SpaceX is reportedly going public as early as June. Who will benefit?" both highlighted related layout opportunities, with some concept stocks showing impressive gains, such as:
Specifically:
1. Musk’s 'Holding Empire'
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$SpaceX and Tesla are the 'twin stars' of Musk's business empire,In a previous interview, Musk hinted at launching a new project called 'GalaxyMind,' aimed at integratingSpaceX, Tesla, and xAIthe core capabilities of these three major companies,to deploy AI satellites powered by solar energy into deep space.Specifically, the realization of this blueprint relies on clear division of labor and collaboration among the three companies:
SpaceX: Provide mature rocket launch and spacecraft manufacturing capabilities, responsible for deploying AI satellites into deep-space orbits.
Tesla: Leverage its expertise in solar and battery technology to provide efficient, long-lasting energy solutions for the satellites.
xAI: Develop cutting-edge artificial intelligence models capable of running on a large scale aboard satellites.
2. Core Competitors
As SpaceX’s valuation rises, its competitors may benefit temporarily due to 'industry hype,' but in the medium to long term, the scarcity of these companies might diminish. If SpaceX goes public, funds could flow out of RKLB and ASTS, shifting towards SpaceX.
$Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$：Considered by the market as a 'smaller version of SpaceX,' it is also referred to by investors as 'Little Rocket', it is currently one of only two private aerospace companies globally that can achieveregular, high-frequency successful launchesprivate aerospace company; it not only established itself with the highly reliable small rocket Electron but also successfully transformed into an integrated entity encompassing satellite manufacturing, software, and launch services through its 'Space Systems' business, making it the only space leader in the US stock market thatthe only company with good performance delivery and the most 'SpaceX substitute' scarcityspace leader, whose medium-sized reusable rocket under developmentNeutronis considered a key trump card to potentially break SpaceX Falcon 9's monopoly in the future.
$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$：regarded by the market as the 'Space Version of AT&T'orThe frontrunner in the 'smartphone-to-satellite direct connection' space, its core vision is to build the world’s firstspace-based cellular broadband network, using massive low-orbit satellites as 'space base stations,' allowing ordinary smartphones on the groundto connect directly to satellite signals without hardware modifications or purchasing specialized equipment(such as dish antennas) can directly connect to satellite signals; despite fierce competition from SpaceX's Starlink, it has become a pure-play investment opportunity with the highest explosiveness (and also high volatility) for betting on the trillion-dollar communication revolution aimed at 'eliminating signal dead zones,' thanks to deep partnerships and patent barriers withAT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Googlegiants.
$Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US)$：currently the strongest dark horse in the commercial aerospace field, second only to the top two leaders (SpaceX/RocketLab), having successfully launched lightweight rockets into orbitAlphadistinguishing itself in the US Department of Defense’s 'Rapid Response Launch (Tactical Space)' missions; unlike single-service launch providers, it owns a high-barrier 'Earth-Moon ecosystem chain.'Its BlueGhost lunar lander has secured a major commercial payload contract from NASA; the company is collaborating with defense giant Northrop Grumman to develop a medium launch vehicle (MLV) to fill market gaps.。
3. Partners
The IPO of SpaceX serves as a 'confidence booster' for its partners, meaning more cash on hand and stronger fulfillment capabilities.
$EchoStar (SATS.US)$：In September 2025, SpaceX acquired EchoStar Communications’ AWS-4 and H-Band spectrum licenses for satellite and mobile communications. The payment structure of this deal was unique, involving up to $8.5 billion in cash and $8.5 billion worth of SpaceX stock. At that time, with SpaceX valued at approximately $400 billion, this equity stake represented around 2% of SpaceX’s total shares. Additionally, SpaceX agreed to assume EchoStar Communications' debt interest of approximately $2 billion through November 2027.
$Planet Labs PBC (PL.US)$：The relationship between PlanetLabs and SpaceX can be summed up in one phrase: 'a long-term and deep passenger-driver relationship.' PlanetLabs owns the world's largest fleet of Earth observation satellites (hundreds), which have relatively short lifespans (about 3-5 years) and require frequent replenishment and updates. PlanetLabs is one of SpaceX's most loyal commercial launch customers, and its business continuity heavily relies on SpaceX's timely rocket launches.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$：The collaboration between Amazon and SpaceX represents a dramatic business pivot. As the parent company of Blue Origin, Amazon has long been considered a primary competitor to SpaceX in the commercial space sector. However, due to delays in the development of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, Amazon was forced to adjust its strategy and, by 2025, entrusted SpaceX with the launch of 24 Kuiper satellites.
4. Starlink-related Business
$T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)$: Starlink's 'top ally' in commercialization and a pioneer in implementation,T-Mobile is SpaceX's most important telecom partner for its 'Direct to Cell' satellite service. The two parties signed a historic agreement named 'Coverage Above and Beyond,' with the key breakthrough being 'no need to change phones'—utilizing T-Mobile’s existing 5G spectrum to treat Starlink satellites as 'space base stations.' This not only helps T-Mobile solve the issue of terrestrial signal dead zones but also opens up a vast consumer market for SpaceX, marking a critical monetization pathway for Starlink services transitioning from 'niche broadband' to 'mass-market telecom.'
$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$: 'The underlying technology enabler' bridging space and ground communicationsIf T-Mobile provides the 'road' (spectrum and users), then Qualcomm provides the 'car engine' (chips). As the global leader in communication chips, Qualcomm is working closely with SpaceX to optimizethe 5G NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) standard. SpaceX requires Qualcomm's smartphone modems and RF front-end technology support to ensure that future smartphones can efficiently and with low power consumption 'understand' satellite signals. Qualcomm is a key hardware enabler in achieving standardized satellite communications and making satellite functionality a standard feature in smartphones.
$flyExclusive (FLYX.US)$：The company previously announced it has signed an authorized dealer agreement with Starlink, officially becoming a certified dealer and installation service provider for its high-speed, low-latency aviation internet system.
5. Investment Companies
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$& $Bank of America (BAC.US)$: Googleis one of SpaceX’s most important early strategic shareholders (holding approximately 7%), with both parties deeply integrated in cloud and edge computing; whileBank of Americahad participated in SpaceX's financing.
If SpaceX goes public:For Google, this represents a massive 'asset revaluation'—the $900 million investment made years ago could multiply several times over, directly enhancing the investment income on its financial statements. For Bank of America (BAC), it means earning substantial IPO underwriting fees while recouping debt risks. These two belong to the ‘effortless winners’ as vested interests.
$Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ.US)$、 $Entrepreneur Private-Public Crossover ETF (XOVR.US)$ & $Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX.US)$: These three fundsrepresents the 'premium channel' for individual investors to purchase SpaceX shares on the secondary market. Their business model involves 'accumulating scarce private equity and selling it to individual investors at a markup.'
If SpaceX goes public:It will face a 'valuation correction' blow. Although the stock price may soar due to speculation just before the IPO, once SpaceX officially goes public, investors can directly buy the stock, and no one will be willing to pay DXYZ's current premium of over 100%. At that time, DXYZ's stock price will experience a sharp pullback (from the premium down to its net asset value), losing its scarcity.
$Neuberger Berman Next Generation Space Economy Fund (IE0000XYD857.MF)$ is currently the only fund in Hong Kong that invests in the space theme, achieving positive returns every quarter since its inception. Its one-year return exceeds 60%, holding stocks related to the space concept. The top holdings include $Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ 、 $Planet Labs PBC (PL.US)$ 、 $AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$Wait.
High Valuation Comes with High Risk
Despite optimistic market sentiment, SpaceX’s IPO is not without controversy. SpaceX plans to go public with a historically high valuation, meaning the market may have already priced in its future growth potential. Moreover, Starship, the fully reusable heavy-lift rocket that serves as a key pillar for achieving ultra-low costs in commercial spaceflight and determining future revenue explosiveness, is still in an intensive testing and iteration phase.
Summary
SpaceX’s race to go public is not only a rehearsal for a grand celebration in the capital markets but also a watershed moment where the commercial space industry transitions from a 'science fiction concept' to 'profit realization.' For investors, this epic IPO is both a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and a litmus test for their foresight. Looking ahead,As 'space computing networks' and 'direct-to-phone' technologies take root, the market is betting on more than just rocket manufacturing—it’s investing in the new foundational infrastructure of future generations.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
Comments (38)
to post a comment
296
1143