Volatility Hunter | Missed NVIDIA's 20% surge in 7 days? No worries! Check out this 'Smart Money Earnings Season Strategy'

Hello fellow investors, welcome to the 'Futubull Volatility Hunter' column!

This week, all eyes will be on $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ ——NVIDIA will release its Q1FY2027 earnings report after the market closes on May 20.

NVIDIA’s earnings are special because its market influence has long exceeded the boundaries of a single stock,Its performance serves as a weathervane for the entire market.Several analysts have explicitly pointed out that NVIDIA’s earnings this time could have a greater impact on the direction of major U.S. stock indices than the Federal Reserve meeting minutes released in the same week. More notably, just before the earnings announcement, the market has already cast its vote—NVIDIA’s share price surged nearly 20% in seven days, hitting an all-time high.

On May 15, NVIDIA’s options trading volume reached 4.6586 million contracts in a single day, with open interest at 16.8904 million contracts—reflecting significant market divergence in pricing ahead of the earnings results.It is also the core window for option sellers to collect IV premiums.

This week's popular earnings calendar

[05-20 US stock aftermarket] NVIDIA (NVDA)

What exactly is the market betting on? Research data from Epoch AI shows that 60% of AI data center costs are used to purchase NVIDIA graphics cards; Bank of America predicts that the global AI data center market will reach $1.7 trillion by 2030, with NVIDIA maintaining a dominant position. Wall Street is in sync — TDCowen raised its price target to $275, Soros Fund increased its NVIDIA holdings by 61.2% in Q1 to 1.1 million shares, and Hillhouse Capital also chose to increase its stake during the same period.As far as NVIDIA's earnings are concerned, the market is no longer betting on whether it is 'good or bad,' but rather on how specific business lines will perform, the progress of cooperation with other leading companies, and whether it can provide significantly better-than-expected future guidance: real growth rates of Blackwell chip shipments and data center revenue, the quantifiable impact of export controls on sales in the Chinese market, and whether Q2 guidance can continue to show unexpectedly strong growth.

IV Structure Analysis

IV percentile at 88%, IV rank at 75 —Indicators clearly point to the opening of the seller window.The current option premium is in the highest range of the past year, with premium pricing significantly higher than the cost of actual volatility.Seller strategies offer excellent cost-effectiveness.An IV/HV ratio of 1.26x indicates that the current implied volatility is about 26% higher than the actual volatility over the past 30 days. Recent actual volatility (HV 42.4%) has already been relatively high, but the market is willing to pay an additional 26% premium on top of that. This is precisely the rare, time-limited opportunity for option sellers brought about by the earnings season.

Limited-time high IV premium option strategy

Sell Put Strategy Reference

Reference strike price: $200 (current price -12.66%; buffer zone above the anchored MA50 of $193)

Reference expiration date: 2026-05-29

Reference premium: approximately $163.5 per contract, equivalent to a reduction in holding cost by $1.635 per share (actual price can be checked within the Futubull app: individual stock—options chain)

Covered Call Strategy Reference

Reference strike price: $240 (about 5% above the upper Bollinger Band at $231.89, leaving sufficient buffer space)

Reference expiration date: 2026-05-29

Reference premium: $462.5 per contract, equivalent to a reduction in holding cost by $4.625 per share (actual price can be checked within the Futubull app: individual stock—options chain)

Comprehensive scenario analysis of earnings

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Risk Warning

An option is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price at any time on or before a specific date. The price of an option is influenced by various factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, the time to expiration, and implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of the option’s volatility over a certain period in the future. It is derived inversely from the Black-Scholes (BS) pricing model and is generally considered an indicator of market sentiment. When investors expect greater volatility, they may be more willing to pay higher prices for options to help hedge risks, leading to higher implied volatility. Traders and investors use implied volatility to evaluate.Option priceto enhance attractiveness, identify potential mispricing, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer

This content is for reference only and should not be considered as an offer, solicitation, invitation, or advice to buy or sell any investment product or make any investment decision. It should also not be interpreted as professional advice. Options contracts are derivative products and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider your own investment experience, investment objectives, financial resources, and other relevant conditions before deciding whether to participate in such transactions. The risk of loss in trading options contracts can be substantial. In some cases, losses may exceed the initial margin deposited. Even if you have set contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, they may not prevent losses. Market conditions may render such orders unexecutable. You may be required to deposit additional margin within a short period. If you fail to provide the required amount within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. However, you will still be responsible for any shortfall in your account resulting from such liquidation. Therefore, before trading, you should study and understand index options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and the rights and obligations upon expiration.

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