Meituan has broken through the sentiment line, and after losing the key support at HKD 85, will it rebound in the short term or continue to search for a bottom?

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Meituan’s market sentiment has visibly weakened recently. Many investors still believed that the level around HKD 85 was an 'iron bottom' and considered the stock price at this level to be worth accumulating. However, the latest trend has quickly shaken market confidence. The closing price was HKD 82.70, with both daily and weekly charts indicating strong selling pressure, and the short-term outlook remains bearish. This reflects that the current situation is not just a simple pullback but rather a weakening technical structure.

The most prominent emotions in the comments are the coexistence of 'the lower it goes, the more I want to buy' and 'the lower it goes, the scarier it gets.' The bullish side believes Meituan has fallen into a value zone, and the area near HKD 85 is a good entry point. Some even think that the more it drops, the more they should buy, viewing it as the last chance to get in. However, the bearish side’s voices are more direct, focusing on subsidy wars, selling pressure, weakening trends, and weak rebounds. This divergence reflects that the market hasn't completely given up on Meituan, but confidence has clearly wavered.

The most critical technical levels now are the two support levels at HKD 82.11 and HKD 79.73. The current price of HKD 82.25 is very close to the first support, and if it breaks below HKD 82.11, there may be a further test of HKD 79.73 in the short term. As many investors originally viewed HKD 85 as psychological support, once it broke down below HKD 85, the market naturally shifted focus towards levels near HKD 80. This also explains why comments have started to appear saying things like 'we’ll probably have to wait until near HKD 80' and 'it will reach HKD 80 soon.'

In terms of resistance, HKD 85.67 is the first short-term rebound target, while HKD 98.95 represents longer-term pressure.If Meituan merely bounces back but fails to reclaim HKD 85.67, technically speaking, it would still only be a weak rebound, which wouldn’t confirm a reversal into strength. If it later manages to break above HKD 85.67 and stabilize, then the area around HKD 85 might turn back into a support zone; otherwise, the weaker the rebound, the more likely the market will choose to turn bearish again.

The Relative Strength Index is approximately 48.68, still within the neutral range, and not yet at an extreme oversold level. This is important because although the stock price has seen a significant drop, technical indicators may not have fallen to extremely cheap levels. The ADX is about 18.73, indicating that trend strength is not extreme, but both daily and weekly lines are weak, suggesting that the current dominant force remains on the bearish side. The ATR is around 2.97, also reflecting relatively high short-term volatility; if one chases the price or adds to their position, they can easily be influenced by intraday fluctuations.

Common market questions mainly revolve around three areas. First, whether HKD 85 still offers support. Judging from the current price, HKD 85 has turned from support into short-term resistance, and what needs to be observed is whether HKD 82.11 can hold. Second, whether one should accumulate on dips. For short-term strategies, it’s better to wait for a rebound towards resistance before making observations, rather than rushing to add positions while the downtrend hasn’t stabilized. Third, whether it will drop towards HKD 80. If HKD 82.11 fails to hold, HKD 79.73 will naturally become the next market target.

Overall, Meituan currently has a chance of rebounding, but the risk-reward ratio has shifted from "accumulating at lows" to "shorting on rebounds" and "selling on breakdowns." In the short term, if it can hold above 82.11 yuan and reclaim 85.67 yuan, market sentiment may stabilize; if it breaks below 82.11 yuan or even 79.73 yuan, the technical outlook will further deteriorate. For short-term retail investors, the most important thing now is not to guess the bottom but to first confirm whether the downtrend has truly stopped.

Meituan (3690) Key Strategy: Current price 82.3 yuan, support at 80 yuan, resistance at 88 yuan; holding above 80 yuan allows for continued rebound recovery, breaking through 88 yuan could restart the uptrend, while breaking below 80 yuan requires caution as the decline may accelerate.

Strategy 1 | Buy on Dip

28039 | Strike price 86.95 yuan | Actual leverage 4.2x | Near current price, suitable for gradual accumulation once the stock price stabilizes, with slower time decay.

26790 | Strike price 83.38 yuan | Actual leverage 4.3x | Near at-the-money, suitable for short-term technical rebound plays, with direct sensitivity to the underlying stock's movement.

27505 | Strike price 83.43 yuan | Actual leverage 4.2x | Slightly out-of-the-money, suitable for conservative positioning, with relatively stable volatility.

$HSMTUAN@EC2612B.C (27505.HK)$$BPMTUAN@EC2612D.C (26790.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EC2612D.C (28039.HK)$

Strategy 2 | Breakout Momentum Play

26464 | Strike price 90.05 yuan | Actual leverage 6.9x | Breaking above 88 yuan amplifies upside elasticity, suitable for momentum-based entries.

26527 | Strike price 93.05 yuan | Actual leverage 5.5x | Medium to high leverage, suitable for expecting the stock price to rechallenge levels above 90 yuan.

28065 | Strike price 87.04 yuan | Actual leverage 5.3x | Strike price near current price, suitable for chasing momentum after short-term breakout.

$UBMTUAN@EC2610D.C (28065.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EC2610C.C (26527.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EC2608C.C (26464.HK)$

Strategy Three | Deployment upon breaking through support level

21519 | Strike price 82.83 yuan | Actual leverage 6.4x | Near current price, suitable for capturing short-term sharp declines after breaking below the support level.

27782 | Strike price 76.94 yuan | Actual leverage 4.2x | Suitable for expecting the downtrend to continue, as a mid-term defensive play.

23001 | Strike price 77.83 yuan | Actual leverage 3.6x | Longer time value, suitable for hedging purposes during continued weakness

$UBMTUAN@EP2607A.P (21519.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EP2610A.P (27782.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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