Tencent fell below HK$460, weakening market confidence; if HK$455 fails to hold, it may test HK$444 again

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The current price is 448 yuan, with both daily and weekly charts showing a strong sell signal; the short-term direction is biased towards downside. From a technical perspective, Tencent is no longer simply consolidating at higher levels but has clearly entered a weak zone. The stock price is below the 50-day moving average of 505.98 yuan and also below the 200-day moving average of 581.09 yuan, indicating that medium- to short-term and medium- to long-term pressures remain unresolved. The RSI is around 31.76, which, although close to a relatively low level, is still insufficient to confirm a bottom. The ADX is approximately 60.54, representing high trend strength, and since the current trend direction is weak, this suggests there is still risk of further decline.

Regarding market sentiment, comments on Tencent reflect two completely opposing views. Bulls remain focused on buybacks, profitability, earnings, and contrarian positioning at lower levels. Some investors believe Tencent’s strong annual profitability and its HK$100 billion buyback program can support the stock price, while others argue that excessive bearishness in the market actually signals an opportunity. The core of these bullish views is the belief that Tencent’s fundamentals are sound and that recent weakness is due to short-term capital-driven pressure.

However, bearish sentiment aligns more closely with the current technical trend. Market discussions increasingly mention targets like HK$420 after breaking below HK$460, renewed tests of HK$455, distribution, steady declines, and ‘no rescue after the signal turns bearish,’ reflecting retail investors’ clearly eroded confidence in near-term support. With the current price at HK$456.40 already approaching the psychological HK$455 level, a breakdown below this point could easily trigger further panic in the market.

The most critical levels currently are HK$468.34 and HK$444.46. HK$468.34 serves as near-term resistance for any rebound; if Tencent fails to break back above this level, any rally should be viewed as a weak bear-market bounce. HK$444.46 represents the next key support level—once the area around HK$455 gives way, market focus will naturally shift toward the HK$444 zone. As for HK$505.98, since it is significantly above the current price, it has instead become an important medium-term recovery threshold; until Tencent reclaims this level, a genuine bullish reversal cannot be confirmed.

The main common questions in the market focus on three points. First, whether the target will shift to 420 after 460 is broken. Technically, it should not jump directly to 420; instead, we should first check if 444.46 can hold. Second, whether buybacks are sufficient to support the stock price. Buybacks can improve market confidence but cannot directly reverse strong short-term sell signals. Third, whether earnings are still worth looking forward to. Tencent's profitability and buybacks remain the core reasons for bullish investors, but short-term trading must still respect the stock price structure.

Overall, Tencent should not rush to treat the current weakness as a low-absorption opportunity at this stage. The short-term strategy should focus on shorting rebounds, pursuing weakness upon breakdowns, or avoiding trading while the downtrend remains intact. If the price can rise back above 468.34, market sentiment may stabilize slightly; if it breaks below 444.46, the weakness will be further confirmed. The biggest risk at this stage is that investors may too quickly believe that buybacks and earnings can immediately change the trend, but the stock price itself has yet to show clear signs of recovery.May 15th [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - Tencent, Lens Technology, Wuxi Bio

Key deployment: In the short term, weakness has not been completely resolved, with 450 yuan being a crucial support level. A breakdown below this level could lead to a retest of 440 yuan. To improve the medium- to short-term structure, the price needs to stabilize above 480 yuan first.

Strategy 1 | Buy on Dip

$UBTENCT@EC2706A.C (27993.HK)$ | Strike Price 500.5 yuan | Actual Leverage 4.7x | Lower out-of-the-money range, suitable for gradual deployment after Tencent stabilizes at support.

$UBTENCT@EC2611D.C (29138.HK)$ | Strike Price 569.99 yuan | Actual Leverage 7.8x | Balanced leverage and time value, suitable for rebound recovery deployments. $HSTENCT@EC2611A.C (28884.HK)$ | Strike Price 560 yuan | Actual Leverage 8.0x | Reasonable out-of-the-money range control, suitable for medium-term recovery bets.

Strategy 2 | Breakout Momentum Play

$UBTENCT@EC2609D.C (27928.HK)$ | Strike Price 600.4 yuan | Actual Leverage 9.7x | High breakout potential after surpassing 480 yuan, suitable for following the upward trend. $UBTENCT@EC2609B.C (26875.HK)$ | Strike Price 638.5 yuan | Actual Leverage 10.1x | High elasticity product, suitable for strong breakout trends. $UBTENCT@EC2608E.C (26259.HK)$ | Strike Price 629.38 yuan | Actual Leverage 12.1x | Higher leverage, suitable for short-term acceleration breakouts.

Strategy Three | Deployment upon breaking through support level

$UBTENCT@EP2607A.P (25552.HK)$ | Strike price 539.49 yuan | Actual leverage 4.6 times | Suitable for defensive deployment when expecting Tencent to retest lows $JPTENCT@EP2612A.P (13911.HK)$ | Strike price 481.81 yuan | Actual leverage 4.6 times | Close to the current price range, suitable for capturing downside volatility after breaking below 450 yuan

@232686皇上: To reach 480 yuan, it must first break back above 468.34 yuan; otherwise, it will still be a weak rebound.

@橘子味拉面Although a crowded bearish market may bring contrarian opportunities, one should wait for the stock price to stabilize back above 468.34 yuan before gaining more credibility.

@321john: The area near 455 yuan is already a psychological level for the market; if it breaks down, the next target will be 444.46 yuan.

@7794909: The short-term outlook is indeed bearish, but those chasing the downside should watch for a possible pullback near 444.46 yuan.

@Lam Gor: After breaking below 460 yuan, the initial target is 444.46 yuan; it's not advisable to directly jump to 420 yuan.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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