The battle for leadership in Zhipu AI is not over yet, as the market awaits an explosion while worrying about a drop below the thousand-dollar mark.

Zhipu has recently become one of the most controversial focal points among AI concept stocks. Although the stock price remains in the high range, market sentiment has gradually shifted from the earlier unilateral enthusiasm to a 'strong but skeptical' stance. A group of investors still believe that China's competition for large models is far from over, and some even think that Zhipu is entering a real phase of technological breakthrough. On the other hand, some funds have started to worry that high valuation, high volatility, and lack of profitability may cause the stock price to experience a significant pullback at any time.

The core focus of market speculation now is no longer just the AI concept, but rather 'who can truly become the core platform for China's large models.' From the comments, it can be seen that many investors have begun to concentrate their discussions on multimodal models, open-source capabilities, technical barriers, and competitive positions against other large models. The market is no longer just looking at themes but has started trying to compare actual technical capabilities.

Some investors mentioned the upcoming release of a native multimodal model and emphasized unified perception capabilities such as vision, sound, and touch, indicating that the market is still willing to support valuations based on 'technological breakthroughs.' Another bullish perspective focuses on the concept of 'global AI track competition,' believing that Zhipu already possesses the ability to compete with top closed-source models, so its valuation has yet to reflect its true potential. This kind of sentiment is crucial because the current market valuation of AI stocks is often not based on profits but rather on future platform value and industry position.

However, the real reason for maintaining strong market sentiment is not just the story, but the fact that the stock price itself still maintains a certain level of strength. Even though recent fluctuations in external markets have intensified and some AI concept stocks have started to retreat, Zhipu’s overall resilience still exists. Comments continuously mention words like 'very stable,' 'safest,' 'survivor,' and 'good trend,' reflecting confidence in its relative strength.

In terms of technical trends, Zhipu closed at 1040 yuan last Friday, and the short-term direction remains biased towards bullishness. Today (August 18), it is trading at 1115 yuan. Both the daily and weekly lines are showing a 'strong buy' signal, indicating that the medium- and short-term trend has not yet weakened. The 50-day moving average is around 757.44 yuan, and the 200-day moving average is approximately 576.53 yuan; the current price is still far above the key medium- to long-term averages, showing that the overall uptrend structure remains intact.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at approximately 55.95, placing it in a neutral-to-bullish zone—not yet extremely overbought—which implies the market still has room to sustain high-level consolidation. The ADX is around 13.81, reflecting that while the trend strength hasn’t entered an extreme acceleration phase, there’s no clear sign of deterioration either. In other words, the current pattern resembles consolidation near highs rather than a definitive top.

In terms of support levels, the market is currently watching whether the area around 938 yuan can hold. This level is not only technical support but is also becoming a psychological defense line for the market. A large number of discussions have begun focusing on questions like 'Should we exit at 1040?', 'Wait for a drop below 1000 before buying again,' or 'Will there be another pullback?' This indicates that the market is starting to become sensitive about the thousand-yuan level. If 938 yuan is breached, it could easily trigger more significant profit-taking in the short term.

On the resistance side, the area near 1141 yuan is starting to become the next key observation zone. If the AI sector regains strength or if there is renewed capital inflow into the AI theme, Zhipu may have the opportunity to challenge higher levels. However, the issue is that the market is no longer in a phase of indiscriminate AI hype but is transitioning into a 'stock-picking stage.' Therefore, only companies with genuinely recognized technological capabilities are likely to maintain high valuations.

From the structure of comments, it is clear that market sentiment is highly polarized. On one side are the long-term believers who think the AI revolution is still in its infancy, while on the other side are short-term traders who are more concerned about capital flows and volatility risks. Some investors have started observing movements such as 'institutional entry,' 'CLSA aggressively buying,' and 'CICC pressuring prices,' reflecting that short-term speculative funds are closely monitoring institutional operations.

At the same time, panic is beginning to emerge in the market. Comments like 'Oh crap, run,' 'The decline won't stop,' 'Run if you can,' and 'Shorting now' reflect that some funds have started worrying about a sharp correction after the AI sector peaks. Especially with recent increases in global market volatility, emotions such as 'The whole world is crashing while you remain so resilient' and 'There’s chaos everywhere' suggest that the market is starting to feel the effects of external risks.

Notably, many investors aren’t truly bearish on Zhipu AI—they’re simply hesitant to chase the price higher. This often signals that market sentiment hasn’t completely broken down yet. Before a major selloff, sentiment typically shifts gradually from 'afraid to chase' to 'wanting to exit even on rallies.' Current comments still show many waiting for another upward move, suggesting the short-term situation hasn’t spiraled out of control.

Additionally, some comments mention 'Missed the entry,' 'Is 1040 a good opportunity?' and 'Is the long-term uptrend secure?' This reflects that there is still a large amount of sidelined capital that hasn’t entered the market yet. This type of capital may not necessarily chase highs, but if the AI sector heats up again, it could easily form a new wave of buying pressure. Therefore, Zhipu still exhibits high volatility characteristics in the short term.

In terms of strategy, it is currently more suitable to 'buy on pullbacks' rather than blindly chasing momentum at higher levels. If the stock price can stabilize above 938 yuan and regain trading volume support, the market may have another chance to challenge higher levels. Conversely, if it breaks below 938 yuan and continues to fail to recover, market sentiment could quickly turn bearish, and once the thousand-yuan mark is lost, both profit-taking and short-term speculative funds may retreat simultaneously.

Overall, Zhipu AI remains a relatively strong core holding within the AI sector, but the market has shifted from 'mindlessly chasing AI' to 'questioning valuations.' This implies volatility will likely increase going forward. For short-term traders, the key focus is no longer just believing the AI narrative, but rather monitoring whether capital is still willing to absorb supply at these elevated levels.

Reply to market investor viewpoints:

@Is freedom on the other side of the sea?@海的那边是自由吗: The market does indeed still have high expectations for multimodal models, but the real key will be product implementation capabilities and whether capital will continue to support high valuations.

@Going All Out@全力冲刺: Upward pressure is indeed starting to increase, especially around the NT$1,141 level, which will be a key resistance. However, the overall trend has not weakened for now.

@Money-Making Bear@賺錢熊: The current flow of funds remains highly volatile; sectors at higher levels are susceptible to large players adjusting their positions. It's best not to be overly aggressive in the short term.

@Precisely hit every pitfall@精准踩到每一个坑: Volatility in the AI sector has generally increased recently, but Zhipu still appears to be relatively strong for now.

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