Pop Mart holding above 150 yuan doesn't indicate a strong reversal; 160 yuan is the true short-term watershed.

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The current price is HKD 149.8, with both daily and weekly charts showing a strong sell signal. The short-term trend is leaning towards bearishness. Although market chatter continues to focus on key price levels such as HKD 150, 155, and 160, with some investors believing that both bulls and bears expect the stock price to reclaim HKD 160, the technical structure currently does not support bullish sentiment. The current price is below the 50-day moving average of HKD 180.43 and also below the 200-day moving average of HKD 225.95, reflecting evident pressure in the medium-short and medium-long term.

The core sentiment in the market now revolves around two themes: 'Duan’s buying' and whether '150 yuan can hold.' The bullish side believes there is an opportunity for the stock to rise directly to 160 yuan, even hoping for a market correction before the close to push it back above 152 to 155 yuan. Such views reflect that the market still believes Pop Mart has strong buying support, and some investors think the situation may change after May 28.

However, the concerns of the bearish side are equally clear. Some believe the trend is forming lower lows, while others see 150 yuan as a new buying level. This indicates that although the market is not in full panic mode, it is no longer unconditionally chasing highs but instead waiting for lower levels or further developments before deciding the direction.

Technically, Pop Mart's most important short-term support level is HKD 145.04. The current price of HKD 149.8 is still above this level, but not by much. If it subsequently breaks below HKD 145.04, the short-term weakness will be further confirmed, and market confidence in the HKD 150 support level will significantly decline.

In terms of resistance, ¥159.76 is the first short-term threshold and is very close to the frequently mentioned ¥160 in market rumors. This means that ¥160 is not just a psychological level but also the watershed for determining whether the technical rebound at this stage will hold. If the stock price fails to rise back above ¥159.76, even if it holds above ¥150 in the short term, it can only be considered weak fluctuation, and a re-strengthening cannot be confirmed.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 36.70, indicating neutral-to-weak conditions but not extreme overselling. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is around 23.64, suggesting that the trend strength is not extreme; however, both daily and weekly charts show strong sell signals, indicating that the prevailing direction remains bearish. The Average True Range (ATR) is about 7.36, representing relatively high short-term volatility. Even if there is a rebound near ¥150, significant ups and downs are likely.

Overall, Pop Mart should not be hastily bought into simply because the market expects ¥160. A more reasonable short-term assessment is that there is still room for a rebound above ¥145.04, but before breaking through ¥159.76, any rebound would still be considered weak recovery. If it falls below ¥145.04, further downside risks need to be guarded against. At this point, the strategy leans towards taking a bearish view on rebounds or waiting for confirmation of the direction rather than blindly chasing the trend.

Key Deployment: The short-term remains in a high consolidation zone, with HKD 150 as the psychological support level; if it fails, there may be further pullbacks. To move higher, it needs to stabilize above HKD 160 to have a chance to challenge previous highs again.

Strategy 1 | Buy on Dip

$UBPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27929.HK)$ | Strike Price HKD 180.1 | Actual Leverage 1.8x | Lower out-of-the-money range, suitable for medium-term recovery deployment

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike Price HKD 186.88 | Actual Leverage 4.5x | Moderate leverage, suitable for rebound repair

$UBPOMRT@EC2609D.C (27992.HK)$ | Strike Price HKD 210.12 | Actual Leverage 5.6x | Higher flexibility, suitable for short-term technical rebound deployment

Strategy 2 | Breakout Momentum Play

$CTPOMRT@EC2609D.C (28018.HK)$ | Strike Price HKD 186.78 | Actual Leverage 5.4x | Suitable for buying into upward momentum after breaking through HKD 160

$GJPOMRT@EC2610B.C (27787.HK)$ | Strike price 193 yuan | Actual leverage 5.5x | Active trading, suitable for a continuation of the bullish trend

$BIPOMRT@EC2609A.C (28132.HK)$ | Strike price 202.2 yuan | Actual leverage 5.7x | High elasticity product, ideal for an accelerating breakout scenario

Strategy Three | Deployment upon breaking through support level

$UBPOMRT@EP2607A.P (22558.HK)$ | Strike price 162.82 yuan | Actual leverage 4.2x | Close to current price area, suitable for bearish deployment if 150 yuan is breached

$UBPOMRT@EP2610A.P (28116.HK)$ | Strike price 138.88 yuan | Actual leverage 3.3x | Suitable for defensive deployment in case of medium-short term weakness

$GJPOMRT@EP2609B.P (28043.HK)$ | Strike price 116.78 yuan | Actual leverage 4.8x | Higher leverage, ideal for capturing sharp downward volatility

@FRAN-K: A direct rise to 160 requires both volume and support; otherwise, it may just be a short-term rebound.

@233430073: If the situation changes after May 28, it will still depend on whether the stock price can reclaim 159.76 yuan.

@木子海 DEREK520: There is anticipation of support near 150 yuan, but optimism should be tempered unless 160 yuan is breached in the short term.

@追高更风168: Waiting to buy at 150 yuan aligns with short-term trading strategy, but attention must still be paid to the support at 145.04 yuan.

@BigBoss: The area near 155 yuan may not confirm strength; the true inflection point remains at 159.76 yuan.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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