May 15 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1-Hang Seng Index, HSBC Holdings, Sands China,

1. The Hang Seng Index has short-term broken below the mid-axis; it is reasonable for bullish investors to take profits and exit, while bearish positions should still be mindful of rebound risks.

The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,962.73 points, down 426.31 points or 1.62%, retreating from the recent rebound high in the short term. On the daily chart, the index has fallen below the 10-day line at 26,272.32 points and the 20-day line at 26,164.12 points, nearing the 30-day line at 25,996.49 points, reflecting a weakening of the original rebound momentum. The midpoint of the Bollinger Bands is also at 26,164.12 points, with the upper band at 26,666.60 points and the lower band at 25,661.64 points. The current price has dropped below the midpoint, transitioning from a slightly bullish stance to a slightly bearish consolidation in the short term.

From a technical perspective, the area around 26,000 points becomes an immediate watershed. If the index fails to rise back above 26,164 to 26,272 points, the rebound momentum will significantly weaken, making it easier for the market to continue testing the support near 25,661 points. A further breakdown below the lower band would intensify market concerns about the 25,000-point level. However, the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 36.86, which is close to a relatively low level, indicating that although the downward trend is weakening, a sharp short-term decline could still result in a technical rebound.

Investors holding bull certificates with a stop-loss at 25,500 points chose to take profits and exit, which is relatively reasonable. The reason is that the current price of 25,962.73 points is not far from the stop-loss level of 25,500 points, and today the index has already broken below the 10-day and 20-day lines, with short-term support mainly seen near 25,661 points. If the market continues to test lower levels next week, the risk for bull certificates will increase significantly, so securing profits now is more prudent than continuing to hold on tightly.

As for the bearish investors who believe that next week it will drop to 25,000 points and hold bear certificates with a stop-loss level at 27,700 points, their strategy aligns with today’s weakening trend. Since the stop-loss level for the bear certificates is set at 27,700 points, which is relatively far from the current price, there is significant room for defense. However, the bearish positions still need to watch out: if the Hang Seng Index (HSI) breaks back above 26,164 points and stabilizes above 26,272 points again, the short-term downtrend might be disrupted, making it inadvisable to cling too long to bear certificate strategies.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index is currently biased weaker in the short term, as the 26,000-point level has shifted from being a support to a point of contention. Below, we first look at 25,661 points; if it breaks below that, the chances of testing 25,000 points will increase. Above, the resistance levels for rebounds are at 26,164 and 26,272 points. At this stage, bulls should not stubbornly hold onto near-price bull certificates, while bears can follow the trend but need to use a return above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages as a risk control point. $BI#HSI RC2809I.C (55296.HK)$$BI#HSI RP2804M.P (61185.HK)$$HS-HSI @EC2609A.C (27959.HK)$

2. HSBC Holdings is consolidating in the short term, and investors may consider accumulating between HKD 138-139, but heavy positions should be avoided.

HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 139.400, down HKD 1.100 or 0.78%, still in a high-level consolidation phase in the short term. The stock price is currently near the 10-day moving average at HKD 139.624, slightly below the 20-day moving average at HKD 140.145, but remains above the 30-day moving average at HKD 138.729, indicating that the trend has not yet weakened significantly. However, there is temporary resistance around HKD 140-141. The Bollinger Bands midline is at HKD 140.145, upper band at HKD 143.822, and lower band at HKD 136.469; the current price is still hovering near the midline without a clear breakout direction.

Investors ask whether it's appropriate to enter between HKD 138-139; from a chart perspective, this range is close to the 30-day moving average at HKD 138.729, making it a reasonable low-absorption observation point. If the stock price can hold above HKD 138-139 and rise back above HKD 140.145, there could be an opportunity to test HKD 141 and the upper band at HKD 143.822 in the short term. However, if it falls below HKD 138.729, the next focus should be on the area around HKD 136.469, meaning entry at HKD 138-139 still requires setting a stop-loss and should not be considered risk-free support.

For investors holding bull certificates with a stop-loss level at HKD 127, the current price at HKD 139.400 still offers some defensive space, carrying lower risk compared to close-price bull certificates. However, HSBC has not broken back above the 20-day moving average, remaining in a sideways consolidation phase rather than showing a clear breakout pattern. For those just holding and not adding to their positions, they can first observe whether the HKD 138-139 range holds; if the price falls below the 30-day moving average and approaches the lower band at HKD 136.469, position adjustments should start to be made.

Overall, HSBC Holdings is currently not in a strong position for aggressive buying but rather in an accumulation zone on pullbacks. The range between 138 to 139 dollars can be considered an observation area for partial investment, but confirmation of strength would require a move back above 140.145 dollars. If it falls below 138.729 dollars, short-term defense shifts to 136.469 dollars. Bull certificate strategies can still be monitored, but at this stage, it’s more suitable to hold conservatively or invest partially; heavy positions should not be added until after a breakout. $UB-HSBC@EC2612A.C (26079.HK)$$UB-HSBC@EP2607B.P (25460.HK)$$UB#HSBC RC2811A.C (54502.HK)$

3. Sands China remains weak in the short term; holding for dividends is possible, but call warrants should not be held excessively.

Sands China closed at HKD 15.960, up HKD 0.090 or 0.56%, but the overall trend remains weak. The stock is trading below the 10-day moving average at HKD 16.118, 20-day moving average at HKD 16.440, and 30-day moving average at HKD 16.676, reflecting insufficient short-term rebound strength and an inability to regain key moving averages. The Bollinger Bands midline is at HKD 16.440, upper band at HKD 17.445, and lower band at HKD 15.435. The current price is closer to the lower region, merely showing sideways movement without clear signs of strengthening.

Investors say that the current stock price can be held for next week's dividend payout, which makes sense from the perspective of holding the underlying shares. If only holding the shares, the current price is near the lower band at HKD 15.435, and as long as it doesn't fall below recent lows around HKD 15.540 and the lower band, it can still be viewed as a weak holding position. However, if the price cannot break back above HKD 16.118 and HKD 16.440, the rebound potential remains limited, and waiting for dividends does not guarantee that the stock price will strengthen.

As for holding call warrants with a strike price of 19.8 yuan, the risk is significantly higher than the underlying stock. The current price of 15.960 yuan is still far from the 19.8-yuan strike price, and the stock price remains below multiple moving averages, without forming a short-term breakout trend. If next week the stock price merely moves sideways or rebounds slightly, the call warrants may not benefit sufficiently; only by breaking through 16.440 yuan and further challenging 16.676 yuan will the short-term attractiveness of the call warrants improve.

Overall, Sands China can use the range between 15.435 yuan and 15.540 yuan as a short-term support zone. If it holds, there is still room to wait for a rebound at lower levels; but if it breaks down, the weakness will persist. On the upside, first look at 16.118 yuan and 16.440 yuan; before breaking through these levels, excessive optimism should be avoided. The underlying stock can patiently wait for dividends, but call warrants require greater attention to timing and the strength of stock price breakouts—it’s not advisable to stubbornly hold based solely on dividend expectations.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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