Kuaishou's performance data supports optimism, but the stock price remains weak and volatile until it stabilizes

$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ The current market sentiment is clearly divided. The bullish side believes that the stock price has fallen to an attractive level, and buying interest nearby is starting to increase; as long as it can stabilize after a pullback, there is still potential for another rebound. However, the bearish side believes Kuaishou's past rebounds have lacked sustainability, with each rise on the back of news followed by an easy retreat, even seen as an opportunity to offload shares. Overall, the market isn’t without hope, but confidence in whether the stock price can truly strengthen remains weak.

Bullish comments mainly focus on accumulation at lower levels, strong buying support, and improving profitability. Some investors believe buying interest is strong near current prices, suggesting gradual purchases rather than rushing into a single entry; others think if the company starts turning profitable, the data changes could be dramatic, and the stock price may recover. These views reflect that the market still believes there is room for improvement in Kuaishou’s fundamentals, but it will take time for the stock price to stabilize.

Another type of bullish perspective leans more towards medium-term positioning, believing that if one doesn't buy now, similar opportunities may not arise later, even expecting the stock to rise back to higher levels by the end of the year. However, this view assumes that the stock price must first complete its bottoming process; otherwise, even if undervalued, it may continue to linger at low levels. In other words, while Kuaishou is being discussed as “cheap” at this stage, there is no confirmation of “strength.”

Bearish sentiment is notably stronger. Several investors have directly described Kuaishou as potentially brewing a major drop, with rallies merely serving as selling opportunities, and even suggested that selling Kuaishou at any time is the right move. This reflects how past stock performance has severely eroded market trust. When a stock repeatedly rebounds only to fall back, investors naturally develop a 'sell on rally' mindset, leading to significant selling pressure during each rebound.

Most notably, the market’s disappointment with Kuaishou does not stem merely from the decline, but rather from 'good data but weak stock price.' Some comments pointed out that the data was explosive, but the price action did not follow suit, which is precisely Kuaishou's biggest contradiction at the moment. If fundamental data improves but the stock price still cannot rise, investors may start to question whether the market has already priced in the positive factors or believe that capital is simply unwilling to revalue the stock.

Among观望comments, the most important points are 'currently within a range' and 'key support/resistance line—hold above for upward momentum, break below for stop-loss.' These two sentences essentially summarize Kuaishou's current technical state. The stock price has yet to show a clear breakout, nor has it fully confirmed weakness, still remaining in a range-bound oscillation. However, if there is no short-term upward breakout, the market will worry about another pullback; if it breaks below the key support/resistance line, then defense should be prioritized over expecting a rebound.

Another market focus is foreign capital or major brokerage selling pressure. Some investors mentioned Goldman Sachs was selling, while others called for fighting against the bears, reflecting intense short-term capital competition. However, attributing the decline solely to bearish pressure is insufficient—the real key lies in whether buying power can support the stock. If the stock price can hold the bottom of the range despite selling pressure, it would indicate improving support; if it breaks down under pressure, it means the bears still dominate the rhythm.

From a technical structure perspective, Kuaishou remains in range-bound oscillation, without showing a clear one-sided breakout. To regain momentum, the stock needs to first overcome short-term resistance to attract trend-following capital again. On the downside, it must defend the range bottom and the key support/resistance line; otherwise, it could shift from oscillation to a downtrend. If the stock rises at the open but reverses into losses, as noted in comments, it would discourage investors because this suggests insufficient support for rebounds and reluctance of capital to chase higher prices.

For short-term strategy, chasing a rebound in Kuaishou is not advisable. If bullish, one can wait for a pullback to stabilize before deploying small positions in stages. For existing holders, the focus should be on whether the key support/resistance line holds. As long as the stock stays within the range, operations should adopt a range-bound mindset and not treat every rebound as the start of a new uptrend. A true strengthening requires significant volume breaking through resistance and holding steady, rather than relying on single-day news-driven spikes.

Overall, Kuaishou’s issue now is not the complete absence of positive factors, but the inability to translate these positives into strong stock performance. The market believes that improved data and earnings have the potential to trigger a revaluation, but confidence has been dragged down by multiple failed rebounds in the past. The short-term core focus is whether the stock can defend the range bottom and the key support/resistance line. If it holds, there is still a chance for gradual recovery; if it breaks down, one must guard against a new round of declines. Until a breakout occurs, Kuaishou remains a high-volatility, low-confidence oscillating stock.

@BullHead: Suggest waiting for stabilization after a pullback, don't get shaken out by minor fluctuations and miss the chance for future doubling gains.

For medium-term trades, patience is key, but the premise is that critical support/resistance levels must hold.

@BullWukong: Do you believe in light? If you do, then you can buy Kuaishou because it falls faster than light.

This is an emotionally bearish view, but it also reflects how deeply the market has been imprinted by Kuaishou's downtrend.

@LeekBro: Wait until others finish digesting their positions and then act.

Waiting for a pullback before deploying is safer than chasing highs.

Regarding Kuaishou (01024) related warrants, call options can focus on BOC 27564. $BIKUASO@EC2611A.C (27564.HK)$ and UBS Group 27577 $UBKUASO@EC2611A.C (27577.HK)$ , both with the same strike price of 60.29 yuan. The former has ideal leverage and implied volatility performance, while the latter offers high leverage and low premium advantages, making it suitable for investors optimistic about a rebound in the underlying stock. For put warrants, BOC 17484 $BIKUASO@EP2612A.P (17484.HK)$ provides the highest leverage with a lower premium, while CEB 17395 has the lowest premium and implied volatility, serving as a good choice for bearish sentiment.

For bull-bear certificates, for bull certificates, we recommend paying attention to Morgan 55209 $MS#KUASORC2612A.C (55209.HK)$ and HSBC 55704 $HS#KUASORC2612D.C (55704.HK)$ , with stop-loss prices of 44 yuan and 45 yuan respectively. The former has the highest actual leverage and a relatively low premium, while the latter also features high leverage and low premium, making it suitable for short-term deployment by those optimistic about a recovery in the underlying stock. Bear certificates are highlighted by HSBC 64295 $HS#KUASORP2812C.P (64295.HK)$ and UBS Group 62026 $UB#KUASORP2812H.P (62026.HK)$ , both with a stop-loss price of 60 yuan and an actual leverage of 4.8 times. Among these, UBS Group 62026 has the lowest premium, making it suitable for investors who are bearish on the underlying stock's trend.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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