Zhipu's high volatility rapidly expanded; after hitting a new high, be prepared for a potential breakdown waterfall.

The most noticeable market characteristic of Zhipu (02513) recently is that the stock's strong performance persists, but volatility has significantly increased. From investor comments, the bullish side still believes the stock has the ability to rebound and reach new highs, with some even considering any pullback as an opportunity to add positions. Some comments mentioned 'bounce back tomorrow,' 'get onboard,' 'take off,' 'starting to rise,' and 'new high,' reflecting continued market optimism about short-term strength.

However, this bullish sentiment is not without pressure. Zhipu is already at a relatively high level, and after every sharp rise in stock price, the market naturally starts discussing whether it indicates accumulation or distribution. Some investors pointed out that the volatility is extremely exaggerated, meaning the stock price is no longer slowly recovering from a low position but has entered a trading phase characterized by high volatility and heightened emotions. In this phase, prices can continue to surge quickly, but if key support levels are breached, the pullback could be equally rapid.

Bearish comments mainly focus on three risks. The first is the risk of chasing highs. Some investors reminded those who bought at high levels to cut losses, even describing such actions as gambling, indicating that blindly chasing highs at current prices is not advisable. The second is the increasing difficulty of sustaining upward momentum. Some comments suggested that repeating the previous day's upward surge would be challenging, reflecting doubts about whether short-term momentum can continue. The third is the breakdown risk, with some investors explicitly mentioning 'in case of a breakdown, it might lead to a waterfall decline,' which is currently the most significant technical risk that needs attention.

Hesitation is also evident. On one hand, investors want to add positions overnight, but on the other, they worry about excessive volatility; some ask whether they should follow Morgan Stanley's increasing purchases, while others wait for so-called mysterious forces. This reflects that the market still hopes for continued support from major funds, but short-term trading sentiment has become hesitant. When a stock rises to a high level, the most common state for investors is being afraid of missing further gains while simultaneously fearing getting trapped immediately after buying.

From a technical perspective, Zhimap is currently in a high-level volatile consolidation. Breaking new highs indicates that the upward trend has not been completely broken, but the increased volatility at high levels also suggests growing divergence among investors. If the stock price can quickly stabilize after a pullback and break upward again, it can be considered a strong consolidation before another rise; however, if it fails to hold previous support after retreating, especially with heavy volume on the downside, one must be cautious of a normal pullback turning into a rapid selloff.

The key short-term factor isn't just whether new highs are reached, but whether the stock can stabilize afterward. A brief spike followed by a retreat could easily trap those who chase the price; only when the stock consolidates sideways at high levels and holds support does it indicate the market’s acceptance of higher valuations. This is why it’s inappropriate to view Zhimap using the logic applied to low-priced stocks, as it has entered a high-level trading phase where risk-reward dynamics differ significantly.

Strategically, at this stage, it’s better to wait for a pullback confirmation rather than chasing directly at high levels. If you’re already holding the stock, use key support levels as your defense line—hold them to continue observing, but strictly cut losses if they’re breached. For those not holding the stock, consider entering in stages after a pullback stabilizes, which would be more reasonable than chasing highs amid maximum market excitement.

Overall, Zhimap remains a strong stock, but it's no longer in a low-risk position. Bullish sentiment still exists, and breaking new highs supports the argument for its strength; however, rising volatility, risks of chasing highs, and waterfall-like breakdown risks are all increasing. The short-term focus is defending critical levels—holding these positions keeps the potential for another rise after high-level consolidation; once they fail, retracements will likely be sharper than for typical stocks.

Zhipu’s call warrants are generally out-of-the-money products with relatively low leverage. BNP Paribas 28650 $BPKNATL@EC2611A.C (28650.HK)$ Strike price 1138 yuan, out-of-the-money by -5.37%, effective leverage 1.70x, premium 46.57%, street ratio 8.52%, last trading day October 29, 2026, implied volatility 164%.

CITIC Securities 28604 $CIKNATL@EC2611A.C (28604.HK)$ Strike price 1200 yuan, out-of-the-money by -11.52%, effective leverage 1.64x, premium 54.28%, street ratio only 0.06%, low trading activity, last trading day October 28, 2026, implied volatility 177%.

J.P. Morgan 28361 $JPKNATL@EC2610A.C (28361.HK)$ Strike price 1233.33 yuan, out-of-the-money by -14.62%, effective leverage 1.59x, premium 58.77%, street ratio 3.64%, last trading day October 21, 2026, implied volatility 190%.

Societe Generale 28382 $SGKNATL@EC2610A.C (28382.HK)$ The exercise price is 1,388 yuan, out-of-the-money by -29.00%, effective leverage at 1.74x, with a premium of 65.71%, the highest in the list; street leverage ratio is 1.13%, last trading day is October 14, 2026, implied volatility is 175%.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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