Meituan's high open and low close has broken investor confidence again, with the support level becoming the short-term critical line
Meituan's recent performance has disappointed the market once more, with investor sentiment clearly shifting from expecting a rebound to doubting a breakdown. Comments show that bullish voices still exist but are few, and lean more towards 'buying after a deep fall' or 'short-term trading for a rebound,' showing no strong confidence in the current trend. On the contrary, bearish comments dominate, focusing on the high open and low close, breaking the support level, failed breakouts, rebounds being pushed back to square one, and whether a new downtrend has begun.
The bullish side mainly holds two opinions. The first is that although the current trend is poor, if retail investors exit at a low point, they may regret it if there is a rebound later, so some still hope for an opportunity to re-enter. The second is viewing Meituan as a quality stock but requiring lower entry conditions, with some even mentioning waiting for a 50% drop before buying. This reflects that the market does not completely negate Meituan itself, but considers the current price trend unable to provide sufficient security.
However, bearish sentiment is clearly stronger. Many investors mention that trouble arises once the position breaks down, running when the support level breaks, and fake breakouts being reversed within a day, indicating market sensitivity to false breakouts. What hurts confidence most about Meituan recently is that every time it seems to strengthen, it quickly falls back, trapping chasing funds. Such movements will make short-term traders increasingly reluctant to chase highs, instead choosing to sell during each rebound.
The 'high open and low close' is a very important emotional core in these comments. Some investors describe it as unexpectedly high open and predictably low close, while others think selling must have dominated this morning. This represents that the market has formed an inertia judgment: whenever Meituan rebounds to certain resistance levels, sell orders will appear. Once this consensus forms, it becomes even harder for the stock price to truly break through, as profit-taking or stop-loss orders emerge every time it rises.
The观望 comments also reflect that investors are extremely exhausted. Some mentioned they thought breaking even was within reach, only for the trend to suddenly turn sour; others described feeling numb from holding their positions; some believed large funds were deliberately testing patience, unsure how much longer it would last. Such comments indicate the market isn't just experiencing panic but rather accumulated disappointment after a prolonged period of volatility. For short-term stocks, this sentiment is dangerous because once key support levels fail, funds that were merely observing might also exit.
Technically, the most critical issue for Meituan now is whether the bottom of the trading range can hold. The repeated mentions of breaking below the box bottom in the comments show that the market has come to regard a certain range's floor as the key defensive level. If the share price falls near the box bottom and rebounds, it can still be considered part of a range-bound fluctuation; however, if it effectively breaks through the box bottom, it signals that the previous sideways consolidation platform has been broken, potentially triggering another round of decline.
On the upside, Meituan has repeatedly failed to break through resistance, with investors noting, "We haven't been able to get past this barrier, it’s happened three times in a row now." This indicates clear overhead resistance and that the market remembers these failures. If there is another rebound but fails to surpass previous highs or key resistance levels, the market could quickly choose to sell off again. Therefore, for Meituan to regain strength, it needs not only to stop falling but also to successfully break through areas where it previously failed multiple times.
For short-term strategy, it is not advisable to rush into chasing rebounds for Meituan at this stage. If the box bottom remains intact, it can be treated as an observation point within a weak, range-bound environment; if it breaks below the box bottom, a defensive stance should be taken instead of hoping for an immediate V-shaped rebound. For those looking to trade short-term, opportunities for betting on rebounds only arise when the stock price reclaims the box bottom and shows noticeable buying support. For existing shareholders, the crucial task is to assess whether this is just another fluctuation or a genuine breakdown.
Overall, Meituan's biggest challenge right now isn't the lack of rebound potential but rather that market confidence has been eroded by repeated false breakouts. Bulls still believe there is value after significant declines, while bears have started to think a new downtrend may be beginning. The short-term focus lies on whether the box bottom can hold and whether the next rebound will break through levels that previously resisted multiple times. Until confirmed, Meituan remains in a high-risk, low-confidence pattern with a bias towards weakness.
@The light boat has already passed through myriad mountains@轻舟已过萬重山: Wait for a 50% drop before buying back this quality stock
The long-term quality can be evaluated separately, but the short-term trend still hasn't shown clear signs of stabilization.
Short-term trading is possible, but you must watch the support level and set a stop-loss.
A breakout after a prolonged consolidation period does indeed test the patience of shareholders.
The obvious disappointment reflects a poor stock-holding experience.
@A Light Boat Has Passed Through Thousands of Mountains@轻舟已过萬重山: This barrier can't be overcome, it's the third time in a row recently
Multiple failed attempts to break through indicate heavy resistance above.
Key strategy for Meituan (3690): The current price is consolidating near the midpoint; first, see if the support level holds. If it holds, there may be a rebound towards the resistance level. Breaking the resistance could lead to a strengthening trend. Losing support would weaken the trend, testing a lower range.
In terms of warrants, among call warrants are UBS Group call warrant (26081) and Bank of China call warrant (25814). The former has a leverage of 8.7 with a strike price of HKD 97.95, while the latter has a leverage of 8.5 with a strike price of HKD 97.90. Both products offer relatively high leverage. For put warrants, there is Bank of China put warrant (19959) and UBS Group put warrant (24595). The Bank of China put warrant has a leverage of 4 with a strike price of HKD 86.88, making it the product with the highest leverage and lowest premium in this batch. The UBS Group put warrant has a leverage of 4.1 and a strike price of HKD 86.83, also showing relatively high leverage performance. $UBMTUAN@EC2608B.C (26081.HK)$$BIMTUAN@EC2608B.C (25814.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EP2609C.P (24595.HK)$
For bull and bear certificates, the bull certificates include Societe Generale bull certificate (56414) and UBS Group bull certificate (61856), both with a recovery price of HKD 80. The Societe Generale bull certificate has a leverage of 9.9, the lowest premium, and the highest actual leverage, while the UBS Group bull certificate has a leverage of 9.6, also featuring high actual leverage and low premium. Bear certificates include HSBC bear certificate (60508) and Societe Generale bear certificate (60671), both with a recovery price of HKD 95. The HSBC bear certificate has a leverage of 8.4, the lowest premium, and relatively high actual leverage, while the Societe Generale bear certificate has a leverage of 8.3, also offering high actual leverage and low premium. $SG#MTUANRC2612D.C (56414.HK)$$UB#MTUANRC2610J.C (61856.HK)$$SG#MTUANRP2812Q.P (60671.HK)$$HS#MTUANRP2807C.P (60508.HK)$
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
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