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Pop Mart plans to launch new products! Can the IP giant capitalize on this opportunity?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · May 15 10:32

Pop Mart dropped nearly 154 testing the bottom, Duan Yongping's effect supported sentiment but did not lift the trend

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Recently, market sentiment has clearly leaned towards chaos. Investors' focus is no longer just on stock price fluctuations, but rather concentrated on three questions: whether the price near 154 has already bottomed out, whether it will drop again after going ex-dividend, and whether Duan Yongping’s related operations are sufficient to support market confidence. From comments, some investors still believe that the current price is close to the bottom, even thinking a V-shaped rebound is imminent; however, concerns about valuation, downward trends, ex-dividend pressures, and short-term re-testing of the bottom remain heavy, indicating that overall sentiment hasn’t truly strengthened.
The bullish side's logic mainly follows two lines. The first is the bottom rebound logic. Some investors think the stock price is already near its low, with buying interest emerging around 154, potentially preparing for a V-shaped rebound, even describing it as 'ready for take-off.' Such comments reflect that there are still funds attempting to bet on a rebound at lower levels, believing that after consecutive declines, conditions for a short-term recovery have been met.
The second factor is the Duan Yongping effect. Numerous comments revolve around Duan Yongping taking positions, selling puts, collecting premiums, and his cost basis, showing the market's strong imagination regarding 'major players supporting the bottom.' Some investors feel reassured by Mr. Duan’s actions, suggesting retail investors need not panic too much; others believe if significant capital is willing to step in at lower levels, there should be some support under the stock price. This sentiment helps boost short-term confidence, but the issue remains that confidence does not equate to an improved trend. If the stock continues to break through key support levels, even the celebrity effect won’t stop the market from repricing.
The bearish side focuses more specifically, mainly concentrating on 154, 152, 150, and 140. Some investors believe 154 is just testing the bottom, with further downside possible; others point out that once 152 is effectively broken, the stock may test 140 again, or even fluctuate between 140 and 135. These comments indicate that the market has begun to gradually lower support levels, reflecting insufficient short-term confidence.
More notably, some investors believe that the stock price must truly fall below 140 to potentially reverse the trend. This statement may seem bearish on the surface, but it reflects the market's belief that the current decline has not yet bottomed out and the final phase of panic selling is incomplete. In other words, some funds are not pessimistic about the long-term outlook but feel that now is not the most comfortable time to accumulate.
Ex-dividend factors are also one of the market's most closely watched short-term pressures. Some comments mentioned that the theoretical price after going ex-dividend would be around 152, with concerns that some investors may sell after collecting dividends, adding further pressure to the stock price. In this case, even if some people buy today to collect dividends, others anticipate a larger drop post-ex-dividend, creating a typical divergence in market positioning before and after the event.
From a technical perspective, Pop Mart has not yet confirmed a bottom. While there is discussion of support near 154, if the stock fails to stabilize above 155, the short-term trend will remain volatile at lower levels. If 152 is breached, discussions around 150 and 140 will intensify, confirming a weaker structure. Conversely, if the stock can hold within the 152–154 range and break back above 155–160, it could preliminarily signal a short-term rebound.
The biggest issue in the current market is not the complete absence of buying interest but rather that buying remains exploratory. Bulls often talk about a bottom forming, V-shaped rebounds, or large players accumulating shares, while bears focus on retesting lows, breakdowns, ex-dividend impacts, and valuation pressures. Comparatively, the bearish side presents a clearer price trajectory, whereas the bullish side still relies heavily on confidence and influential figures. Thus, until the key levels are decisively reclaimed, the short-term risk-reward ratio remains relatively low.
Overall, Pop Mart is currently in a state where "some are betting on a bottom, but a confirmed bottom has not been reached." The first short-term observation level is 154, with 152 being a more critical support level, 150 as the psychological threshold, and 140 as the next major support area under a more pessimistic scenario. If 152–154 holds and rebounds, the market may reinvigorate speculation for a recovery from lower levels; if 152 and then 150 fail, a test of 140 becomes likely. At this stage, it’s unwise to prematurely conclude a bottom has formed; a more reasonable approach is to wait for confirmation of stabilization before taking positions.
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Recently, market sentiment has clearly leaned towards chaos. Investors' focus is no longer just on stock price fluctuations, but rather concentrated on three questions: whether the price near 154 has already bottomed out, whether it will drop again after going ex-dividend, and whether Duan Yongping’s related operations are sufficient to support market confidence. From comments, some investors still believe that the current price is close to the bottom, even thinking a V-shaped rebound is imminent; however, concerns about valuation, downward trends, ex-dividend pressures, and short-term re-testing of the bottom remain heavy, indicating that overall sentiment hasn’t truly strengthened. The bullish side's logic mainly follows two lines. The first is the bottom rebound logic. Some investors think the stock price is already near its low, with buying interest emerging around 154, potentially preparing for a V-shaped rebound, even describing it as 'ready for take-off.' Such comments reflect that there are still funds attempting to bet on a rebound at lower levels, believing that after consecutive declines, conditions for a short-term recovery have been met. The second factor is the Duan Yongping effect. Numerous comments revolve around Duan Yongping taking positions, selling puts, collecting premiums, and his cost basis, showing the market's strong imagination regarding 'major players supporting the bottom.' Some investors feel reassured by Mr. Duan’s actions, suggesting retail investors need not panic too much; others believe if significant capital is willing to step in at lower levels, there should be some support under the stock price. This sentiment helps boost short-term confidence, but the issue remains that confidence does not equate to an improved trend. If the stock continues to break through key support levels, even the celebrity effect won’t stop the market from repricing. The bearish side focuses more specifically, mainly concentrating on 154, ...
Key deployment: With prices currently at higher levels, focus on whether support levels hold. If they do, an upward move toward resistance could continue; a breakout above resistance could accelerate gains; however, a failure to hold support requires caution against a deeper pullback.
For those optimistic about Pop Mart's future performance, consider call warrant products. Among them, $CIPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27955.HK)$ has a strike price of 180.1 yuan, offering approximately 2.4x leverage, with both premium and implied volatility among the lowest in comparable products. It suits investors who are bullish on the stock and aim to capture upside potential at a lower cost. Another option is $SGPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27973.HK)$ , which also has a strike price of 180.1 yuan and offers about 2.3x leverage. Its relatively lower implied volatility helps mitigate time decay effects, making it suitable for medium-term bullish strategies.
For those bearish on Pop Mart’s stock price, put warrant products are worth considering. $DSPOMRT@EP2611A.P (29035.HK)$ The strike price is 130 yuan, with a leverage of about 2.4 times. Its implied volatility is the lowest among similar products, effectively reducing holding costs, making it suitable for investors expecting share price adjustments or using it as a hedge against risks.
Investors who are optimistic and wish to capture rebounds with higher leverage can consider bull certificate products. $HS#POMRTRC2702C.C (58132.HK)$ The call price is 147 yuan, with an actual leverage of about 12 times. It features high actual leverage and low premium, making it suitable for aggressive bullish strategies. $UB#POMRTRC2702C.C (58509.HK)$ The call price is 148 yuan, with an actual leverage of about 12.5 times. Its premium is the lowest among similar products, and its actual leverage is relatively high, providing another efficient bullish option.
If you're bearish on the market outlook and want to use leverage to capture downside opportunities, you can focus on bear certificate products. $UB#POMRTRP2812S.P (69183.HK)$ The call price is 180 yuan, with an actual leverage of about 5 times. Its premium is the lowest among similar products, and its actual leverage is relatively high, making it suitable for bearish investors who can withstand higher volatility. $HS#POMRTRP2811C.P (68905.HK)$ The call price is also 180 yuan, with an actual leverage of about 4.9 times. Its leverage value is relatively high, offering more noticeable price sensitivity, making it suitable for short-term bearish deployment.
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Recently, market sentiment has clearly leaned towards chaos. Investors' focus is no longer just on stock price fluctuations, but rather concentrated on three questions: whether the price near 154 has already bottomed out, whether it will drop again after going ex-dividend, and whether Duan Yongping’s related operations are sufficient to support market confidence. From comments, some investors still believe that the current price is close to the bottom, even thinking a V-shaped rebound is imminent; however, concerns about valuation, downward trends, ex-dividend pressures, and short-term re-testing of the bottom remain heavy, indicating that overall sentiment hasn’t truly strengthened. The bullish side's logic mainly follows two lines. The first is the bottom rebound logic. Some investors think the stock price is already near its low, with buying interest emerging around 154, potentially preparing for a V-shaped rebound, even describing it as 'ready for take-off.' Such comments reflect that there are still funds attempting to bet on a rebound at lower levels, believing that after consecutive declines, conditions for a short-term recovery have been met. The second factor is the Duan Yongping effect. Numerous comments revolve around Duan Yongping taking positions, selling puts, collecting premiums, and his cost basis, showing the market's strong imagination regarding 'major players supporting the bottom.' Some investors feel reassured by Mr. Duan’s actions, suggesting retail investors need not panic too much; others believe if significant capital is willing to step in at lower levels, there should be some support under the stock price. This sentiment helps boost short-term confidence, but the issue remains that confidence does not equate to an improved trend. If the stock continues to break through key support levels, even the celebrity effect won’t stop the market from repricing. The bearish side focuses more specifically, mainly concentrating on 154, ...
Replying to some comments:
@7941255Two years of inventory clearance, transformation of body shape, the only way back is through consumption, which can resolve the current dilemma. By autumn, this long-term fundamental recovery logic will naturally ease, though it may not be immediately reflected in the stock price in the short term.
@23948973Duan Yongping steps in! The 'Duan Yongping effect' helps stabilize sentiment but cannot replace technical support for stopping declines.
@AMD苦主: The bottom, the Hong Kong stock market is about to start but it's not confirmed yet if it’s reached the bottom. It needs to hold the range between 152 and 154 first.
@231095976: Testing the bottom, just tested 154, alright for now until 3 PM. If it tests 154 again, it will be the first test level. If there isn’t enough support, there could still be a risk of further downside exploration.
@難為了熊証: Are the bears calling it a day? It turns out there are only one or two! Whether the bears have left depends on whether the stock price can stabilize above the support level again.
Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, stay tuned to 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates! $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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