May 14 [HKEX Podcast] Part-2-Xiyu, Alibaba, RoboSense

MINIMAX's current price (May 14) is 850.000 yuan, up 32.000 yuan today, with a gain of 3.91%. The short-term trend has rebounded from the recent low but hasn’t fully shaken off the overhead pressure. The stock price has risen back above the 10-day line at 775.950 yuan and the 20-day line at 803.725 yuan, indicating improved short-term rebound strength. However, the current price is still below the 30-day line at 859.367 yuan, meaning medium- to short-term pressure remains above, with the 850 yuan to 870 yuan range temporarily being a critical resistance zone.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is approximately 803.725 yuan, the upper band is about 947.229 yuan, and the lower band is about 660.221 yuan. The current price has returned above the middle band, indicating that the trend has recovered from weakness to moderately strong, but there is still room before reaching the upper band. The key point now is whether it can first break above the 30-day line at 859.367 yuan and then challenge the area near 870 yuan. The Relative Strength Index is approximately 62.545, which is moderately strong but not overheated, suggesting that the rebound could continue but requires confirmation by breaking through the overhead resistance.

Investors are asking if there is significant pressure at 870 yuan. From the chart, it appears that 870 yuan is indeed a short-term resistance level, as the current price of 850 yuan will soon encounter the 30-day moving average at 859.367 yuan, and 870 yuan is also close to the recent rebound resistance level. If the stock price fails to rise above and stabilize at 870 yuan, it may fluctuate around 850 yuan in the short term; if it breaks through 870 yuan, then it could have the potential to move towards the upper Bollinger Band at 947.229 yuan.

Some investors mentioned entering on a pullback and continuing to hold call warrants with an exercise price of 1999 yuan. This kind of strategy reflects high elasticity and an aggressive view, with the key being that the underlying stock must not fall back below the midpoint of 803.725 yuan. If the stock price pulls back but still holds within the 803.725 to 775.950 yuan zone, the rebound structure remains intact; however, if it falls below 803.725 yuan or even breaches the 10-day moving average at 775.950 yuan, the call warrants could easily be affected by the decline in the underlying stock and time decay.

Overall, MINIMAX has transitioned from weakness to stability in the short term, but 870 yuan remains the first key resistance level that needs to be broken. Staying above 803.725 yuan, the rebound structure can still be maintained; once it breaks through 870 yuan, further strengthening of the short-term recovery can be confirmed.

As of May 14, Alibaba's current price is 137.900 yuan, up 5.100 yuan today, with a gain of 3.84%, showing strong short-term momentum. The stock price is now above the 10-day moving average at 134.090 yuan, the 20-day moving average at 133.370 yuan, and the 30-day moving average at 129.977 yuan, indicating improving rebound conditions. Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is approximately 133.370 yuan, the upper band is about 140.967 yuan, and the lower band is around 125.773 yuan. The current price has stabilized above the middle band and is approaching the upper band, giving it the potential to test 140.967 yuan in the short term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 62.029, which indicates moderately strong momentum without being overly overheated, suggesting that the rebound could continue. However, since the current price is near the upper Bollinger Band, if it cannot break through and stabilize above 140.967 yuan in the short term, the stock price might consolidate at higher levels first, with support seen at around 134.090 yuan and 133.370 yuan.

An investor noted large volume with a big bearish candle and decided to buy bearish certificates with a recovery price of 150 yuan. However, today’s chart does not show a big bearish candle but instead an upward bullish candle with significantly increased trading volume, suggesting a rebound accompanied by higher volume. Deploying bearish certificates with a recovery price of 150 yuan carries the risk that the current price of 137.900 yuan is already close to the upper band at 140.967 yuan. If Alibaba continues to rise past the upper band, pressure on bearish certificates would rapidly increase.

A short-term bearish setup isn’t entirely without merit, but a more reasonable trigger point would be when the price fails to break through 140.967 yuan and retreats, falling below both 134.090 yuan and 133.370 yuan, which would signal weakening of the rebound structure. If the price stays above 133.370 yuan, buying bearish certificates would represent a more aggressive approach.

In general, Alibaba currently shows relative strength in the short term, with 140.967 yuan being the key resistance level above, and 133.370 yuan acting as the short-term watershed. Unless the midpoint is breached, it’s premature to conclude that the rebound has ended. $UBALIBA@EC2607D.C (26262.HK)$$MSALIBA@EC2607C.C (26226.HK)$$UBALIBA@EP2607C.P (26011.HK)$$UB#ALIBARC2610I.C (67474.HK)$$JP#ALIBARP2812L.P (64231.HK)$$UB#ALIBARP2811F.P (65172.HK)$

As of May 14, RoboSense's current price is 34.500 yuan, up 2.800 yuan today, representing an 8.83% gain, with a clear improvement in rebound strength from recent lows. The stock price has risen back above the 10-day moving average at 32.880 yuan and the 20-day moving average at 33.891 yuan but remains slightly below the 30-day moving average at around 34.359 yuan, indicating ongoing recovery but without a full breakout yet.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is approximately 33.891 yuan, the upper band is about 37.158 yuan, and the lower band is around 30.624 yuan. The current price has returned above the middle band, reflecting a shift from weakness to moderately strong momentum. The RSI is about 63.678, showing improved momentum without being overheated, leaving room for continued short-term rebound potential.

Investors believe that if the price stabilizes at 35.2 yuan, the next target would be 40 yuan. This observation level is reasonable as 35.2 yuan represents the first significant resistance level above the current price. If the price can break through and stabilize above it, it indicates that the rebound is not just a short-covering rally but rather a further confirmation of strengthening momentum. However, 40 yuan is a more aggressive target. The stock price needs to first break through 35.2 yuan, then challenge the upper Bollinger Band at 37.158 yuan, before aiming for 40 yuan.

As for investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of 45.9 yuan and maintaining a bullish outlook on the stock price, the key remains whether 35.2 yuan can hold firm. If the stock successfully stabilizes above 35.2 yuan, the elasticity of the call warrants will improve. However, if the price falls back below 33.891 yuan again, the rebound structure will weaken, and the call warrants will easily be affected by the underlying stock’s decline and time decay.

Overall, RoboSense's short-term rebound momentum looks good, but 35.2 yuan serves as the first critical watershed. Only after stabilizing above 35.2 yuan can the stock gradually aim for 37.158 yuan and then 40 yuan. If it fails to hold above 33.891 yuan, caution is needed to prevent a return to weak fluctuations.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should combine other information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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