May 14 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Li Auto, Meituan

1. The current price of the Hang Seng Index (May 14) is 26,389 points. The short-term structure has gradually shifted from a rebound at earlier lows to an upward recovery. Observing the daily chart, after rebounding from around 24,203 points, the index has continued to rise and regained positions above multiple short-term moving averages. The 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages are showing an upward alignment, indicating that short-term capital is beginning to flow back, and the structure has transitioned from weak to stable.

In terms of the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is approximately at 26,185 points, the upper band at 26,688 points, and the lower band at 25,682 points. The current price has stabilized above the middle band and is gradually approaching the upper band, indicating that the market is in a relatively strong range but is also nearing short-term resistance. If it fails to break through and stabilize above 26,688 points, upward potential will remain limited, with a higher likelihood of consolidation between the middle and upper bands.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 57, indicating a neutral-to-strong level without signs of overheating, suggesting there is still room for upward movement. However, momentum is not extremely strong, and the short-term trend is more likely to progress steadily rather than surge sharply. Trading volume has not shown significant spikes, reflecting that funds are gradually entering the market rather than aggressively chasing prices.

In terms of trend structure, the 26,185-point level is a key short-term support. If it breaks below this level, there is a chance the trend could retest the 25,682-point region; conversely, if it can break through and stabilize above 26,688 points, it would indicate a successful breakout, further opening up short-term upside potential.

Investors are clearly divided on the outlook. The bullish side expects a rebound on Friday and holds bull certificates with a recovery price at 25,000 points, which is considered a medium-range defensive setup. This view is based on the index stabilizing above the midline, and as long as it does not fall below 25,000 points, there remains upward extension potential.

Reply: The current trend has indeed returned above the midline, improving the short-term structure. There’s still considerable distance between 25,000 points and the current price, making it relatively safe. However, the key remains whether the 26,185-point level can hold steadily; otherwise, the rebound structure may be disrupted.

The bearish side believes that Friday will bring a return to the original state, targeting a drop to the 25,500-point bull certificate area while holding bear certificates with a recovery price at 27,028 points, reflecting an aggressive setup close to the current price and indicating a stronger expectation of a short-term pullback.

Reply: The current price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 26,688 points, so there is indeed a possibility of resistance leading to a pullback. However, the distance between 27,028 points and the current price is small. If the index breaks through the upper band and continues its upward momentum, risks will quickly escalate, making this a high-risk strategy betting on a correction.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) is currently in a consolidative range after a rebound, showing relative strength. The 26,688-point level serves as a key short-term resistance, while the 26,185-point level acts as structural support. Until a breakout occurs, it is reasonable to treat the movement as range-bound, and the market's short-term direction still awaits confirmation from a breakout signal. $JP-HSI @EC2608B.C (26361.HK)$$UB-HSI @EP2607B.P (25465.HK)$$BI#HSI RC2809G.C (56831.HK)$$BI#HSI RP2803D.P (59692.HK)$$BI#HSI RP2803R.P (54402.HK)$

Li Auto’s current price (May 14) is 76.850 yuan, rising by 3.200 yuan today, or 4.34%, showing a clear strengthening in short-term momentum. The stock price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 76.219 yuan and is trading above the 10-day moving average (71.295 yuan), 20-day moving average (71.248 yuan), and 30-day moving average (71.382 yuan), indicating a shift from consolidation to an upward breakout. The intraday high reached 78.900 yuan, not far from the psychological level of 80 yuan. If next week the price can remain above 76.219 yuan, there is still potential for it to challenge 80 yuan in the short term.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the midline is around 71.248 yuan, the upper band is approximately 76.219 yuan, and the lower band is about 66.276 yuan. The current price has broken above the upper band, indicating accelerating momentum but also implying higher risk for chasing the uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 77.486, which is already at a relatively high level, suggesting strong buying momentum but also nearing overbought territory. Therefore, this is not a weak rebound but rather a strong upward push following a breakout. The critical factor now is whether the price can hold above 76.219 yuan.

Investors noted that the daily chart looks promising, predicting a rise towards 80 to 87 yuan next week. This view aligns with the current breakout structure, as the stock price has risen above the upper band and hit recent highs, providing conditions for a short-term challenge to 80 yuan. However, 87 yuan is a more aggressive target requiring confirmation of a successful breakout above 80 yuan along with continued trading volume. Otherwise, the stock price may first experience profit-taking and consolidation near the 80-yuan mark.

For investors asking where they can re-enter on a pullback, the first observation point is near 76.219 yuan, i.e., the upper Bollinger Band. If the stock price pulls back but holds around this level, it confirms the strength of the breakout, indicating that short-term momentum remains intact. A second, more conservative entry point would be near 71.248 to 71.382 yuan, where the 20-day and 30-day moving averages and the Bollinger Band midline converge. Retreating to this zone with support would offer better risk-reward compared to chasing higher prices directly.

Overall, Li Auto's short-term trend has clearly strengthened. If it can hold steady above 76.219 yuan next week, it may test the 80-yuan level. A break above and sustained trading above 80 yuan would create conditions to challenge higher levels. Conversely, if it falls back below 76.219 yuan, the short-term trend might enter a consolidation phase, at which point we’ll assess whether there is sufficient support near the 71-yuan mark. $UBLIAUT@EC2609A.C (24865.HK)$$BILIAUT@EC2609A.C (24077.HK)$$HS#LIAUTRC2612B.C (59579.HK)$$CDAPXC B2803 (05469.HK)$

3. Meituan’s current price (May 14) is 85.700 yuan, down 1.900 yuan today, a drop of 2.17%. From a daily chart perspective, the stock rebounded earlier from the low of 73.600 yuan and gradually moved closer to key moving averages. It remains above the 10-day moving average at 84.385 yuan, the 20-day moving average at 84.290 yuan, and the 30-day moving average at 84.570 yuan. The short-term structure isn’t weakening yet, but resistance around 90 yuan remains evident.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is approximately 84.290 yuan, the upper band is about 88.190 yuan, and the lower band is roughly 80.390 yuan. The current price is above the middle band but still below the upper band, indicating that the stock is in a rebound zone and hasn’t completed a breakout yet. If Meituan cannot break through 88.190 yuan and further challenge the 90-yuan mark, it will likely continue to oscillate between 84 yuan and 88 yuan in the short term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 57.382, which indicates neutral-to-strong momentum but not overheating, reflecting improved strength without confirmation of a breakout. In terms of trading volume, there hasn’t been noticeable consecutive volume surges recently, explaining why the area near 90 yuan has repeatedly acted as resistance.

Investors mentioned that the stock has failed to break through 90 yuan three times in a row and asked if they should consider shorting. From a technical perspective, 90 yuan does represent short-term psychological resistance, but deciding to short solely because it failed to break 90 yuan three times seems premature. A clearer signal for shorting would be if the price falls below the middle band at 84.290 yuan and the 10-day moving average near 84.385 yuan, indicating that the rebound structure has weakened. Only then would there be stronger justification for testing the lower band near 80.390 yuan. However, if the price remains above 84 yuan, the risk of shorting remains relatively high.

For investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of 110.98 yuan, the key isn’t just focusing on the 110.98-yuan exercise price but also on whether the underlying stock can first break through 88.190 yuan and 90 yuan. If Meituan fails to break through 90 yuan, the warrant will be more vulnerable to time decay and sideways movement in the underlying stock. If it breaks above 90 yuan and holds steady, the short-term upside elasticity of the warrant will significantly improve.

In summary, Meituan is neither showing clear signs of weakness nor confirming a breakout—it is currently stuck between 84 yuan and 90 yuan. The short-term inflection point lies between 88.190 yuan and 90 yuan; only a break above this range would justify chasing upward momentum. On the downside, a break below 84.290 yuan would warrant caution against potential declines toward 80.390 yuan. $UBMTUAN@EC2608B.C (26081.HK)$$BIMTUAN@EC2608B.C (25814.HK)$$SG#MTUANRC2612D.C (56414.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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