Geely Auto's downward pressure continues, as the market waits for a rebound while gradually losing patience
The recent trend has clearly weakened, and market sentiment has also shown significant divergence.
From investors' comments, it can be seen that some funds still hold expectations for the future market, believing that the current situation belongs to a bottom-building or consolidation phase, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Many bullish voices are focused on short-term expectations like 'rebound tomorrow,' 'rise to 22,' and 'move up after the shakeout.' There are also more aggressive views suggesting that once the trend reverses after a prolonged sideways movement, there could be a larger-scale increase, with targets even looking higher. On the other hand, some investors cite fundamentals and stock repurchases as supporting reasons, believing that continued buybacks indicate management's confidence in valuation, and the current decline offers an accumulation opportunity—a perspective particularly common during times of market panic.
Geely Auto closed at 21.26 yuan yesterday (the 14th), with an RSI of approximately 41; the technical signal is 'neutral,' within a moderately weak range. Compared to peers in the automotive sector,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$Closed at 76.85 yuan, RSI around 66, technical signal is "Sell" (overbought risk at high levels);$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$Closed at 49.96 yuan, RSI around 57, technical signal is "Strong Sell" (high pressure to pull back); and$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ 、 $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$and$GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$The technical signals are both "Buy", with RSI in the low rebound range of 43 to 34.
This shows a clear divergence within the auto sector: new high-flying stocks (Li Auto, Nio) face pullback pressures, while traditional automakers and some new energy stocks (Xpeng, BYD) are in the low-level rebound recovery phase. Geely Auto currently sits in the middle, neither extremely overbought like Li Auto or Nio, nor showing obvious rebound signals like Xpeng or BYD, belonging to a passive state of 'following the decline but not the rise'.
However, compared with$MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)$However, unlike the high-level divergence seen in other stocks, the current debate around Geely Auto leans more towards 'whether it’s still worth holding.' Many comments reflect dissatisfaction and fatigue, such as 'dropping every day,' 'constantly breaking lows,' 'five consecutive drops,' 'everyone else is green but you're red,' indicating that the market is gradually losing patience with its performance. Especially when the broader market or other stocks rise, Geely Auto continues to fall, amplifying negative sentiment among investors. Some investors noted they were trapped after entering at high prices, experiencing limited rebounds but significant declines, forming a typical structure of 'little bounce, big drop,' making short-term trading much harder.
One critical contradiction lies in the divergence between share buybacks and stock price. Some investors directly question why the stock keeps falling despite increased buybacks, reflecting growing doubts about the connection between fundamentals and price. Buybacks are theoretically positive, but if the stock price fails to rise accordingly and instead keeps hitting new lows, it erodes investor confidence, even being interpreted as an inability to reverse the trend in the short term. This is also one of the key reasons behind the current weakening market sentiment.
Observational and sentiment-driven comments reflect another layer of structure: the market is beginning to enter a 'wait-and-see' state. Some investors believe southbound capital is currently engaged in a battle between bulls and bears, while others compare the current performance to past cycles where prolonged declines were followed by rebounds, hoping history will repeat itself. Meanwhile, some voices suggest retail investors are gradually exiting, while major players may be accumulating shares—a narrative commonly seen in the later stages of long-term declines, indicating the market is trying to find bottom signals. On the other hand, emotionally charged comments like 'I’m going bankrupt' or 'my positions are dragging me down' show that some investors are nearing their limits, and if this sentiment spreads further, it could exacerbate short-term selling pressure.
From a technical perspective, Geely Auto remains in a downtrend, with the stock price continuously testing new lows without clear signs of stabilization. Multiple rebounds have occurred, but their magnitude has been limited and unsustainable, indicating persistent selling pressure overhead. The short-term structure fits a typical pattern of weak rebounds followed by further declines; even when upward movements occur, they tend to face resistance at key levels and retreat.
On the support side, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the recent low area can form initial support. Otherwise, once it breaks down again, the downward space will further open up. The resistance level can refer to the range of 20 to 22 yuan, which coincides with the rebound targets often mentioned in market rumors, reflecting that this area represents a consensus pressure zone. If the price fails to effectively reclaim this range, an overall trend reversal remains difficult to confirm.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a relatively weak region, without showing clear rebound signals following oversold conditions, indicating that downside momentum has not been fully released. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock price continues to run close to the lower band, a characteristic of ongoing weakness. Until it moves back above the middle band, the overall trend still leans towards a downtrend. This also explains why, despite market hopes for a rebound, the actual price movement has yet to align with those expectations.
In terms of strategy, at this stage, it is not advisable to use the rationale that "a sharp drop will lead to a rebound" as the sole reason for entering the market. For short-term considerations, it’s essential to first observe whether there are clear signs of stabilization, such as a slowdown in the decline, shrinking trading volume, or a significant and sustained rebound above key levels. Otherwise, rash accumulation carries higher risks. Conversely, if the share price can stabilize above 20 yuan and gradually challenge 22 yuan, there may be a chance for the trend to shift from weak to stable; otherwise, the overall movement remains part of a rebound within a downtrend.
Overall, Geely Auto is currently in a phase of confidence erosion. There are still bulls present, mainly based on expectations and fundamentals, while bears and disappointment stem from actual price performance. When prices consistently fail to meet expectations, the market tends to shift from "waiting for a rebound" to "giving up on waiting," a transition that is gradually occurring. The short-term focus is not on predicting when a rebound will happen, but rather on confirming when a true bottom forms, which will determine whether subsequent investment opportunities re-emerge.
Reply to some investors' views:
Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:
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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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