PDD Holdings reported Q1 revenue of RMB 106.2 billion—has its share price already hit bottom?
After a sharp rise, SMIC's stock has pulled back. The uptrend remains intact, but the risk of chasing higher in the short term has clearly increased.
SMIC is currently trading at 72.55, down 2.16%. After a sharp rebound from the previous low of 49.320, it has entered a phase of high-level consolidation. From the daily chart perspective, SMIC's upward momentum accelerated significantly after breaking through multiple moving averages and once surged above 78, reflecting a short-term concentration of capital inflows into the semiconductor sector. However, today’s pullback in share price indicates profit-taking at higher levels has started to emerge, with the market no longer being a one-sided chase but entering a digestion period following its strong run.
Technically, SMIC’s current price remains above the 20-day moving average at 67.340 and the 30-day moving average at 63.015, as well as above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 67.340, indicating that the intermediate-term rebound structure remains unbroken. However, the price has broken below the 10-day moving average at 73.195 and continues to struggle near that level, suggesting short-term momentum is beginning to weaken. If the stock can stabilize again above 73.195 to 74 yuan, it can still be considered a strong consolidation; if it fails to hold this zone, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of a test toward 67.340.
Regarding Bollinger Bands, the upper band is at 80.733, the middle band at 67.340, and the lower band at 53.947. After nearing the upper band earlier, the stock price retreated, reflecting significant resistance around 80 yuan. For the short term, to regain strength, the stock must first break above the nearby high at around 78 yuan before challenging the upper band at 80.733. If it cannot break through, the stock will likely consolidate repeatedly between 73 and 80 yuan.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 58.446, having fallen from its previous high to a neutral yet slightly strong region. This indicates that SMIC is not in a weak position, but its short-term explosive power has slowed compared to a few days ago. For short-term investors, the key point to watch here is: while there is still potential for a rebound, this is no longer the early stage of a bottom-up move, and chasing higher involves the risk of profit-taking at elevated levels.
In terms of investor sentiment, bullish expectations remain very strong, focusing on themes such as 'explosive rise,' 'no need to exit based on earnings,' and 'tomorrow’s rally.' This reflects continued optimism about SMIC, especially driven by earnings expectations, semiconductor cycles, and sector rotation, which are still key emotional supports for the stock price. However, strong sentiment often increases short-term volatility, as profit-taking tends to concentrate if the price fails to continue rising.
Bearish comments mainly reflect disappointment, with investors feeling that the stock is stagnant or underperforming compared to other stocks. Such sentiment is common after a sharp rise followed by a pullback, as investors tend to compare SMIC with other popular stocks. If short-term performance lags, dissatisfaction can quickly arise. However, from a technical perspective, SMIC remains above its major medium-term moving averages and hasn’t truly weakened; it has simply transitioned from a sharp rise to consolidation.
Cautious comments indicate that the market still anticipates potential catalysts, such as earnings reports, merger news, or whether the closing price might rise again. This sentiment suggests that investors haven’t fully exited, but confidence is increasingly reliant on news rather than purely technical trends. Without further positive catalysts, the stock price may need to rely on support levels to absorb profit-taking.
In terms of short-term risk-reward, the current price is neutral-to-high, making it unsuitable for blind chasing. The reason is that the stock price remains above its central axis and multiple moving averages, with no structural damage yet, but it is not far from the resistance level at 80.733. Meanwhile, the key support below is at 67.340, and the risk-reward ratio isn't particularly attractive. A more reasonable strategy would be to wait for the stock price to retreat near 73 and observe whether it holds steady with buying interest. If it breaks below 73, confirmation of support around 67.340 will be needed. Only when the stock price rises back above 78 and successfully challenges 80.733 can it be considered a renewed upward trend.
Overall, SMIC remains in a relatively strong structure following its rebound, but it has entered a phase of digesting gains at higher levels in the short term. The critical resistance above is at 80.733, short-term support is at 73.195, and the important mid-term defense line is at 67.340. Before breaking below 67.340, it's premature to conclude weakening; however, until breaking above 80.733, the current trend shouldn't be seen as confirming a new explosive rise.
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Earnings optimism may support sentiment, but technically, it will be critical to see whether the 73.195 level can hold. If it holds firm, there is still room for the long-term bull logic; if not, short-term caution against profit-taking is warranted.
Today’s pullback makes the short-term outlook weaker, but the price remains above the central axis of 67.340, so it cannot yet be considered truly bearish. The key is whether it can stabilize again near the 73 level.
SMIC had already accumulated substantial gains earlier; currently, it is consolidating at higher levels. A breakout above 80.733 is required to catch up with the sector's strong momentum.
@ChineseChivePigBear@韮菜豬熊: It's risen quite a bit already. Can't you just rise steadily? I think it will go up further by the close.
For a short-term rebound, the price must first stabilize between 73.195 and 74. If the closing price can hold this range, the trend will be more stable.
If the stock price holds above 73 and rises above 78 again, there is indeed still an opportunity to test 80.733 in the short term. However, caution is needed against fluctuations at these elevated levels for now.
1. SMIC (00981) Warrant (Call Option) Products Summary
Bullish investors of SMIC may consider call warrants: UBS Group call warrant 28641 offers 4x leverage, with a strike price of 83.93, characterized by the highest leverage and low implied volatility; Bank of China call warrant 23604 also provides 4x leverage, with a strike price of 83.88, offering the highest leverage and lowest implied volatility, suitable for bullish investors seeking high leverage and low volatility. For bearish positions, put warrants can be chosen: HSBC put warrant 28738 offers 3.6x leverage, with a strike price of 63.81, providing relatively ideal leverage and implied volatility; HSBC put warrant 21090 has 9.8x leverage, with a strike price of 62.81, featuring the lowest premium and implied volatility, making it a preferred choice for bearish strategies.
II. SMIC (00981) Bull-Bear Certificate Product Summary
For bullish strategies, priority should be given to bull certificates. UBS Group bull certificate 64257 has a recovery price of 65 yuan, with a leverage of 6.7 times, featuring high actual leverage and low premium; HSBC bull certificate 64896 has a recovery price of 64 yuan, with a leverage of 6.1 times, offering the highest actual leverage and relatively low premium, suitable for aggressive traders who are optimistic about the market. For bearish strategies, attention can be focused on bear certificates. UBS Group bear certificate 63354 has a recovery price of 81 yuan, with a leverage of 11.7 times, offering the highest actual leverage and relatively low premium; Societe Generale bear certificate 59399 has a recovery price of 80 yuan, with a leverage of 14.9 times, featuring the lowest premium and relatively high actual leverage, suitable for investors who are bearish and prefer high leverage.
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.
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