Pop Mart sees four consecutive declines, with 160 yuan becoming the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Currently priced at 154.8, the stock has recorded four consecutive declines. After a sharp pullback from its high of 274.200, the share price gradually stabilized near 140.100. From a daily chart perspective, Pop Mart has exited the weakest phase of one-sided decline but has yet to re-establish a clear uptrend, currently appearing to be searching for direction within the range of 150 to 168 yuan.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the upper band is at 168.205, the middle band at 160.040, and the lower band at 151.875. The current price is below the middle Bollinger Band at 160.040 and also below the 30-day moving average at 156.630. The key level to watch now is if the price falls below 160 yuan and breaches 156.630, which would weaken the rebound structure further.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 48.648, indicating a neutral-to-weak level, suggesting that momentum has not yet significantly strengthened. Compared to the sharp declines seen earlier, pressure has eased somewhat, but buying power remains insufficient. This also explains why investors might feel the stock is 'stagnant': prices are no longer plunging, but neither are they breaking out effectively, making market sentiment prone to weakening.

The immediate support level is at 160.040; if the midpoint can hold, the structure remains stable. The next support levels are 156.630 and 151.875. If it breaks below 151.875, there is a risk of retesting the low around 140.100. Above, resistance lies near 168.205 and 171. A breakout above this area would significantly restore market confidence.

On investor sentiment, bullish comments focus on phrases like 'no need to fear at this level,' 'good buying interest,' 'new products,' and 'will bounce back stronger after being suppressed.' This reflects that many investors believe the stock price has fallen to a relatively low position with limited downside, expecting new products or catalysts to drive a rebound. This view has a psychological basis as the share price has already retreated significantly from its peak, with temporary support forming near 140.100.

However, simply thinking 'it won’t fall further because it has dropped a lot' is insufficient. For Pop Mart to truly turn strong, it needs to break through 168.205 and stabilize, preferably accompanied by increased trading volume. Otherwise, even with decent buying interest, the stock may remain range-bound at lower levels and might not quickly return above 180.

Bearish comments reflect ongoing concerns about the weak stock performance and fundamentals. Some describe the stock as stagnant, while others worry about declining revenue quarter-on-quarter, even speculating significant short selling. These sentiments indicate that investor confidence in Pop Mart has yet to fully recover, especially when the stock struggles to break through the 160-168 range for an extended period, leading the market to interpret sideways movement as weakness.

Among neutral comments, some discuss post-dividend adjustments, others ask whether it’s a good entry point near 161.5, and some await more dynamic price action. This reflects that the market is not entirely pessimistic but is waiting for clearer direction. Near 161, close to the current price and midpoint, but not far from the 168 resistance level, entering here doesn't offer particularly attractive upside potential.

In terms of short-term reward-to-risk, Pop Mart's current price is neutral. For dip buyers, an ideal entry isn’t at 161 but rather between 156.630 and 151.875 if it holds steady. For momentum traders, one should wait for a breakout above 168.205 and stabilization. The current price sits in the middle, facing resistance at 168 on the upside and potential drops to 156 or even 152 on the downside, making the risk-reward profile less compelling.

Overall, Pop Mart isn’t showing renewed strength yet but isn’t at its weakest phase either. The 160 mark acts as a short-term dividing line, 168.205 as the breakout threshold, and 151.875 as a crucial defense line. As long as 160 holds, the stock still has room to consolidate for potential upward moves. Breaking above 168.205 would boost confidence for testing 171 or higher levels. Conversely, breaking below 156.630 and 151.875 could signal failed rebounds.

Short-term strategy assessment: The short-term trend is weak and approaching oversold conditions. Rebound opportunities at lower levels can be considered, but aggressive breakout attempts should be avoided until strength is confirmed.

Strategy One: Rebound from Lower Levels

$UBPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27929.HK)$ | Strike Price 180.10 | Actual Leverage 1.8x | UBS Group Call Warrant, positioned closer to the rebound recovery zone, suitable for deployment in anticipation of a low-level rebound

$BIPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27896.HK)$ | Strike Price 180.10 | Actual Leverage 2.0x | Strike price close to the rebound target area, with relatively moderate leverage $HSPOMRT@EC2711A.C (28302.HK)$ | Strike price 180.10 | Actual leverage 2.2x | Higher elasticity within the same range, suitable for deployment after confirming a rebound

Strategy Two: Chasing momentum on a breakout is unsuitable as the short-term breakout structure has not been confirmed; products should not be forced to match.

Strategy Three: High-Leverage Short-Term Trading

$UBPOMRT@EP2607A.P (22558.HK)$ | Strike price 162.82 | Actual leverage 4.0x | UBS Group put option, close to current price, suitable for short-term trading in a weak trend $CTPOMRT@EP2607A.P (25143.HK)$ | Strike price 153.33 | Actual leverage 4.3x | Out-of-the-money put option, suitable for amplifying elasticity during an accelerated decline $HUPOMRT@EP2607B.P (23513.HK)$ | Strike price 162.82 | Actual leverage 4.2x | Close to current price, suitable for short-term volatility trading

Reply to comment

@12096848: At this level, what’s there to fear? How much further can it drop? Just hold patiently. The current price has already retreated significantly from its peak, but safety cannot be judged solely by the magnitude of the decline. If it holds above 160, the rebound structure can still be maintained; if it breaks below 151.875, beware of retesting the lows.

@26783606: I’ll stick to my position and not leave until it hits 180. A target of 180 is relatively high, and in the short term, resistance near 168.205 and 171 must first be broken. Before that happens, directly targeting 180 remains overly aggressive.

@14850575: Revenue has declined for three consecutive quarters. Fundamental concerns will weigh on valuation recovery, so the stock price needs clearer growth catalysts. In the short term, if it fails to break through 168.205, market confidence will remain difficult to restore significantly.

@23456789南北: This question calls for 399, right? A target of 399 is extremely far off, and technically, we still need to focus on whether there can be a gradual breakthrough near 168.205 and 180. Before the trend reversal is complete, it’s not advisable to aim too far ahead.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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