Meituan's short-term surge reached the resistance zone, with upward momentum showing improvement, but the key test remains before the 90 yuan mark.
Meituan-W is currently trading at 87.7, up 0.11%, with short-term momentum showing clear improvement over earlier levels. After rebounding from the March low of 73.600, the stock has been consolidating between 80 and 88 yuan in recent months. Today it pushed higher again, nearing the upper Bollinger Band at 88.272, indicating that short-term buying interest is re-entering. However, with the current price already close to overhead resistance, whether it can truly break through will depend on whether it can stabilize in the range of 88.272 to 90 yuan.
From a technical perspective, Meituan's current price is above the 10-day moving average at 84.130, the 20-day moving average at 84.320, and the 30-day moving average at 84.577, indicating that it has regained support above the key moving averages. This is a positive signal as the stock had previously struggled around the 84 yuan level, and its rise today reflects that this dense moving average zone has temporarily shifted from resistance to support. As long as the price holds above 84 yuan going forward, the short-term rebound structure remains intact.
Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at 84.320, the upper band at 88.272, and the lower band at 80.368. The current price of 87.600 is already near the upper band, meaning the stock is testing short-term resistance. If it can break above 88.272 and hold steady, the market may have a chance to challenge 90 yuan or even retest the previous rebound high. However, if it rises to between 88 and 90 yuan and fails again, it would reinforce the market's impression that 'every approach near 90 yuan leads to a pullback,' potentially increasing short-term profit-taking pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 74.156, which has entered a relatively high level, reflecting strong short-term momentum but also implying rising risks for chasing further gains. At this position, upward movement isn't impossible, but it requires corresponding trading volume support. If volume increases alongside breaking through resistance, the rally could continue; however, if prices spike without sufficient volume, shares are prone to profit-taking around resistance levels.
In terms of trading volume, there has been an increase compared to earlier sessions, though not extreme. This indicates some capital inflow, but whether it’s enough to sustain a breakout still needs observation. What’s most crucial now is not just a one-day surge, but whether after breaking 88.272, the price can stay above that level and establish the 84-yuan region as new support.
Short-term support initially lies in the 84.577 to 84.130 zone, where the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages overlap, forming a critical defense line for the current rebound structure. A pullback holding within this area could still be viewed as consolidation before a breakout; however, if the price falls below 84, today’s rise might turn into a false breakout, with downside potential extending towards 80.368.
From a risk-reward perspective, Meituan's current price is not a low-risk buying opportunity but rather closer to a resistance test level. Entering now without holding the stock involves the risk of rejection around the 88 to 90 range. A more prudent strategy would be to wait for a confirmed breakout above 88.272 and stabilization before assessing whether there are conditions to challenge levels above 90, or waiting for a pullback to around 84 without breaking down and observing whether buying interest is strong enough. For those already holding, the area around 84 can be viewed as a short-term defensive level, while the area around 90 serves as the first profit-taking observation point.
Regarding investor sentiment, comments reflect continued expectations for Meituan, though confidence remains unstable. Bulls believe the uptrend can extend, possibly continuing tomorrow, consistent with today’s rally and stabilization back above key moving averages. However, for this view to hold, the key remains whether the stock can break through 88.272 and 90 yuan, rather than focusing solely on today’s gains.
Bearish comments focus on “weakness,” “quick but powerless moves,” and concerns about competitive pressures. This reflects lingering doubts about Meituan’s strength despite the recent bounce, as the stock has repeatedly faced resistance near highs in the past, failing to form a clear ascending trend of higher highs.
Neutral comments further highlight market psychology. Some are concerned about earnings reports, others want to reduce positions during the rebound, some believe every approach near 90 will lead to a pullback, while others express frustration saying 'It just won’t break through.' These comments indicate that the 90-level is not only technical resistance but also psychological resistance for investors. If the stock price can genuinely break through 90, sentiment may improve significantly; however, if rejected again, the market is likely to revert to profit-taking and position reduction.
Overall, Meituan's short-term trend is improving, with gains helping to restore market confidence, but the current price is already close to a key resistance zone. The short-term watershed lies between 88.272 and 90 yuan; if it can break through and stabilize above this level, the rebound may continue. If it faces resistance again, the stock price might consolidate around 84 yuan. At this stage, it’s not advisable to be overly pessimistic, but blindly chasing highs before resistance isn’t wise either. The strategy should focus on confirming a breakout or holding steady after a pullback as the main criterion.
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Today’s trend has indeed improved, but whether it can rise further tomorrow depends on whether it can break through 88.272. Only by stabilizing above this level does it have a chance to challenge 90 yuan.
Short-term momentum remains strong, but the current price is already close to the upper Bollinger Band. If it fails to surpass 88.272 tomorrow, a pullback for consolidation is still possible.
@I'm a newbie@我是个小白: Don't know when the lock-up period ends, but selling at this price could recover quite a bit of losses
If the goal is simply to reduce holdings during a rebound, the range of 88 to 90 yuan requires careful observation. If it fails to break through, handling in stages would be more prudent than waiting for a one-time move.
Stock Name: Meituan-W; Short-term Strategy Assessment: Improved momentum for short-term rebound, but the mid-term resistance has not been reclaimed yet. Suitable to deploy strategies involving pullback accumulation and breakout confirmation.
Strategy One: Rebound from Lower Levels
28065 | Strike Price 87.04 | Actual Leverage 4.7x | Close to current price, suitable for deployment after a pullback and regaining stability.
26464 | Strike Price 90.05 | Actual Leverage 6.1x | Slightly out-of-the-money, better rebound elasticity.
26526 | Strike Price 90.05 | Actual Leverage 5.3x | Moderate leverage, suitable for a stable rebound strategy.
Strategy Two: Breakout Momentum Chase
25675 | Strike Price 106.10 | Actual Leverage 8.8x | Higher elasticity after breakout, suitable for chasing momentum upon confirmation of strength.
25867 | Strike Price 106.10 | Actual Leverage 9.0x | Higher leverage within the same range, suitable for short-term breakout trading.
25015 | Strike Price 106.00 | Actual Leverage 8.9x | Close to breakout extension area, suitable for continuation of strong momentum deployment.
Strategy Three: High-Leverage Short-Term Trading
24993 | Strike Price 114.90 | Actual Leverage 9.7x | Further out-of-the-money, suitable for short-term strong acceleration
24978 | Strike Price 114.90 | Actual Leverage 10.3x | Higher leverage, suitable for very short-term volatility trading
24606 | Strike Price 114.90 | Actual Leverage 10.2x | High leverage within the same range, suitable for quick in-and-out after a breakout
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should combine other information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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