May 12 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-2 - China Mobile, Bilibili, Zijin Mining

China Mobile’s short-term strength remains intact, but the risk of entering at the current price is starting to rise.

China Mobile is currently trading at 86.500 yuan, maintaining a strong short-term trend. The stock price is above the 10-day moving average at 85.065 yuan, the 20-day moving average at 83.888 yuan, and the 30-day moving average at 82.483 yuan, reflecting that the upward trend structure remains intact. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 83.888 yuan, the upper band at 87.019 yuan, and the lower band at 80.756 yuan. The current price is close to the upper band, indicating strong short-term momentum but also nearing a resistance zone.

Investors are asking whether entering now carries the risk of chasing highs; the answer is yes, there is some risk of chasing highs. The reason is that the current price has risen near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 87.019 yuan, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 81.055, which is relatively high, indicating strong short-term momentum but also signs of overheating. If it fails to break through 87.019 yuan and stabilize, the stock price may consolidate at higher levels first.

However, strength does not mean an immediate weakening. As long as China Mobile stays above 85.065 yuan and 83.888 yuan, the short-term uptrend remains intact. If it can break through 87.019 yuan, there is still a chance to continue the uptrend. However, if it falls below 85.065 yuan, the risk of chasing increases, with the next support level at 83.888 yuan.

Investors who continue to monitor bull certificates with a call price of 75 yuan need to be aware that such positions lean towards a bullish outlook, but the current stock price is already close to the upper band, so the entry point isn't low. The call price of 75 yuan is at a certain distance from the current price, but if the stock price pulls back from its high, the bull certificate will still be affected by volatility. For a more conservative short-term strategy, it's better to wait until the stock price stabilizes above 85.065 yuan or breaks through 87.019 yuan before making further decisions.

Reply to investor inquiries

@Investors: Entering now carries a certain risk of chasing highs, as China Mobile's current price of HK$86.500 is already close to the upper Bollinger Band at HK$87.019, with the relative strength index at approximately 81.055, which is relatively high. If it fails to break through HK$87.019, it may consolidate in the short term; more crucially, whether it can hold above HK$85.065 and HK$83.888.

@Investors: The bull certificate with a recovery price of HK$75 has a relatively larger safety margin from the current price. However, the underlying stock is already trading in a high range, so investors must still be cautious about the risk of chasing highs. If the share price stabilizes above HK$85.065, the deployment still holds favorable conditions; if it falls below HK$85.065, short-term risks will increase.

5. Bilibili remains weak in the short term, with initial support seen at 164.2 yuan.

Bilibili is currently trading at 170.500 yuan, remaining in a weak consolidation phase in the short term. The stock price is below the 10-day moving average at 171.380 yuan, the 20-day moving average at 178.895 yuan, and the 30-day moving average at 179.687 yuan, showing insufficient rebound momentum and failing to regain key moving averages for now. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 178.895 yuan, the upper band at 199.614 yuan, and the lower band at 158.176 yuan. The current price remains below the middle band, indicating the trend hasn’t strengthened yet.

Investors are asking where the support level is. In the short term, the first support can be seen at 164.200 yuan. If 164.200 yuan is breached, the next support would be the lower band of the Bollinger Bands at 158.176 yuan. The current RSI is approximately 40.192, indicating weakness but not extreme oversold conditions, suggesting the stock price still has downside risk to test support.

Some investors believe now is the time to increase their put warrant positions, holding products with a strike price of 133.88 yuan. Technically, Bilibili has yet to regain its 10-day and 20-day moving averages, so the logic for maintaining short positions still holds, but the current price is already close to the 164.200 yuan support level. If it falls near this support level in the short term and does not break below, the attractiveness of chasing put warrants will decrease. Conversely, if it breaks below 164.200 yuan, the likelihood of testing 158.176 yuan will increase.

The short-term watershed can be set between 171.380 yuan and 178.895 yuan. Before regaining this zone, the trend remains weak; if it rises above 178.895 yuan again, short positioning needs to be scaled back.

Reply to investor inquiries

@Investors: Immediate support is seen at HK$164.200; if it breaks below that, the next level of support will be the lower Bollinger Band at HK$158.176. The current price of HK$170.500 remains below the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend has not yet strengthened.

@Investors: The put warrant with a strike price of HK$133.88 represents a bearish position. The technical trend remains weak for now, but attention should be paid to the support at HK$164.200. If it breaks below HK$164.200, the probability of success for bearish positions will increase; if it holds and rebounds, the risk of adding to the put warrant position will rise.

Zijin Mining shows short-term strength, but 50 yuan is an aggressive target.

Zijin Mining's current price is 38.440 yuan, showing an improved short-term trend. The stock price is above the 10-day moving average of 36.898 yuan, the 20-day moving average of 37.109 yuan, and the 30-day moving average of 36.567 yuan, indicating that the price has regained its position above key moving averages. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at 37.109 yuan, the upper band is at 39.090 yuan, and the lower band is at 35.128 yuan. The current price is approaching the upper band, suggesting short-term momentum is on the stronger side.

Investors believe that the rebound in gold prices, strong copper prices, and dual drivers from resource stocks are positive factors, and the stock could reach 50 yuan. From a technical perspective, the immediate focus isn’t directly on reaching 50 yuan but first on whether it can break through and stabilize above 39.090 yuan. If it successfully breaks above the upper band, the stock will have the conditions to challenge higher levels; otherwise, it may consolidate in the short term between 37.109 yuan and 39.090 yuan.

Investors holding call warrants with a strike price of 42 yuan need to note that the current underlying stock price of 38.440 yuan is still far from 42 yuan. If the stock price can break above 39.090 yuan, the elasticity of the call warrants will improve; however, if it falls below 37.109 yuan, short-term strength will weaken, and the risk for call warrants will increase.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 65.398, which is moderately strong but not excessively overheated. The short-term watershed can be placed at 39.090 yuan; breaking through and stabilizing above this level would favor the continuation of the rebound; otherwise, defense at 37.109 yuan is necessary.

Reply to investor inquiries

@Investors: A target of HK$50 is relatively aggressive at this stage, and the immediate focus should be on whether Zijin Mining can break through HK$39.090. The current price of HK$38.440 is already above the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, indicating short-term strength, but until it breaks through the upper Bollinger Band, the upward potential is not fully unlocked.

@Investors: The call warrant with an exercise price of HK$42 represents a bullish position; the key is whether the underlying stock can first break through HK$39.090. If it does, the elasticity of the call warrant will improve; if it falls below HK$37.109, the short-term trend will weaken, and holding risk needs to be increased accordingly. $UB#ZIJINRP2812I.P (57819.HK)$$SG#ZIJINRP2812H.P (56382.HK)$$SGZIJIN@EC2612A.C (25525.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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