May 12th [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-1-Hang Seng Index, ZhiPu, Hong Kong Exchange,

1. The Hang Seng Index has stabilized above the short-term moving average; 26,500 points become the first target for the bulls.

The current price of the Hang Seng Index is 26,347.91 points, rebounding above the 10-day line at 26,155.12 points, the 20-day line at 26,137.80 points, and the 30-day line at 25,857.12 points. After bouncing back from its recent lows, the trend remains relatively stable. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 26,137.80 points, the upper band is at 26,646.18 points, and the lower band is at 25,629.43 points. The current price is above the middle band but has not yet approached the upper band, indicating that there is still room for a short-term rebound, though it hasn't officially broken out.

Bullish investors are targeting 26,500 points, which is fairly close to the upper Bollinger Band at 26,646.18 points, making it a reasonable short-term test area. If the Hang Seng Index can hold steady between 26,137.80 points and 26,155.12 points, there's potential for a short-term push towards 26,500 points. However, if it fails to break through near 26,500 points, the index may consolidate repeatedly between the middle and upper bands.

Bearish investors believe the index will drop straight to 26,000 points and have chosen bear certificates with a stop-loss level at 26,900 points. Technically speaking, the 26,000-point level is indeed a short-term position that requires attention because once the Hang Seng Index falls below 26,137.80 points and 26,155.12 points, the trend will return below the mid-axis, weakening short-term support. This would increase downward pressure, potentially testing 26,000 points or even 25,857.12 points.

The Relative Strength Index is approximately 56.298, showing neither overheating nor weakness, reflecting a neutral and stable trend at present. The short-term watershed can be set around 26,137.80 to 26,155.12 points. If this region holds steady, bulls may continue to see a rebound; if it breaks below this area, the likelihood of bears targeting 26,000 points will increase significantly.

Reply to investor inquiries

Bullish investors: 26,500 points can be considered as the first short-term target since the current price of 26,347.91 points remains above the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, with the upper Bollinger Band at 26,646.18 points. However, holders of bullish warrants with a stop-loss at 25,900 points should pay attention to the support level between 26,137.80 and 26,155.12 points; if this range is breached, the risk will increase significantly.

Bearish investors: The 26,000-point level is not impossible, but the index must first break below the range of 26,137.80 to 26,155.12 points to indicate short-term weakness. The bear certificate with a stop-loss level at 26,900 points still has some room from the current price, but if the Hang Seng Index rises near 26,500 to 26,646.18 points, fluctuations in the bear certificate will increase, necessitating risk control.$JP-HSI @EC2608B.C (26361.HK)$$BI-HSI @EP2608A.P (26491.HK)$$BI#HSI RC2809G.C (56831.HK)$$HS#HSI RP2804L.P (62741.HK)$$CI#HSI RP2810I.P (65520.HK)$

2. Zhipu's short-term trend weakens, with 800 yuan temporarily being the downside risk zone.

Zhipu’s current price is 840.000 yuan, down 59.000 yuan today, marking a 6.56% decline, indicating a clear weakening in the short-term trend. The stock price has fallen below the 10-day moving average at 892.650 yuan, the 20-day moving average at 915.200 yuan, and the 30-day moving average at 882.283 yuan, meaning the previous rebound structure has been disrupted, shifting from consolidation near highs to weakness.

The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at 915.200 yuan, the upper band at 1,028.93 yuan, and the lower band at 801.468 yuan. The current price of 840.000 yuan is already below the middle line and is approaching the lower band. Investors are asking if it might fall back to 800 yuan; technically, 800 yuan is indeed the next key support level to watch as the lower Bollinger Band is at 801.468 yuan, very close to 800 yuan.

However, whether it falls directly back to 800 yuan depends on whether the price can hold steady near 840 yuan and whether the stock can regain the 882.283 to 892.650 yuan range. If the 30-day and 10-day moving averages cannot be reclaimed in the short term, the downward trend will likely persist, increasing the probability of testing 801.468 yuan. Conversely, if the price can recover above 882.283 yuan, the downtrend might stabilize for now.

The Relative Strength Index is about 36.393, nearing the weak zone but not yet at an extreme oversold level, suggesting selling pressure hasn’t fully subsided. The short-term watershed lies around 882.283 to 892.650 yuan; until that range is reclaimed, the vicinity of 800 yuan should be viewed as the primary downside risk.

Reply to investor inquiries

@Investor: 800 yuan is not impossible, as the current price of 840.000 yuan has already fallen below the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, while the lower Bollinger Band is at 801.468 yuan, very close to 800 yuan. If it cannot recover above the range of 882.283 to 892.650 yuan in the short term, the risk of retesting near 800 yuan will increase; however, if it can stabilize back within this zone, the downtrend may ease temporarily.

Hong Kong Exchange shows short-term strength, but 500 yuan remains an aggressive target.

The current price of Hong Kong Exchange is 423.800 yuan, showing relatively strong short-term momentum. The stock price is above the 10-day line at 419.460 yuan, the 20-day line at 415.840 yuan, and the 30-day line at 410.000 yuan, indicating that the share price has regained its position above key moving averages, transitioning from earlier lows to a stronger consolidation. The middle Bollinger Band is at 415.840 yuan, the upper band at 427.655 yuan, and the lower band at 404.025 yuan; the current price is close to the upper band, representing improved short-term momentum.

Investors believe there's a good chance of exceeding 500 yuan in June, which is an aggressive view. From the current technical position, the Hong Kong Exchange first needs to break through and stabilize above 427.655 yuan to open further upside potential. If it fails to break the upper Bollinger Band, the stock may consolidate between 415.840 yuan and 427.655 yuan. A break above 427.655 yuan would allow for observation of extended upside potential around 428 yuan and higher levels.

Investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of 480.2 yuan should note that the underlying stock is still far from the exercise price. For the current price of 423.800 yuan to approach 480.2 yuan, the stock needs to break through short-term resistance and extend its upward movement. Therefore, the short-term focus is not immediately on 500 yuan, but rather on whether 427.655 yuan can be broken and whether 415.840 yuan can hold steady.

The Relative Strength Index is about 61.397, indicating neutral to slightly strong momentum without overheating. The short-term inflection point could be placed at 415.840 yuan; maintaining this level still supports a continued rebound. If it breaks below 415.840 yuan, the uptrend may turn into consolidation, requiring further observation of support near 410.000 yuan.

Reply to investor inquiries

@Investor: A target above 500 yuan is relatively aggressive; for now, we need to see if the Hong Kong Exchange can break through and stabilize above 427.655 yuan. Although the current price of 423.800 yuan is higher than the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, it remains close to the upper Bollinger Band. Before a breakout occurs, it's premature to assume a significant upward space has opened.

@Investor: Call warrants with an exercise price of 480.2 yuan represent a more aggressive deployment since the underlying stock’s current price of 423.800 yuan remains distant from 480.2 yuan. The short-term key is whether 427.655 yuan can be broken through and 415.840 yuan defended. If the upper rail is breached, the elasticity of the call warrants will improve, but if the mid-axis is broken downwards, risks will significantly increase.$JP#HKEX RC2810I.C (55162.HK)$$UB#HKEX RC2810B.C (57254.HK)$$JP#HKEX RP2812A.P (68170.HK)$$UB-HKEX@EP2610A.P (28375.HK)$$HU-HKEX@EC2611B.C (27903.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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