[HK Stocks Podcast] Hang Seng Index, ZhiPu, Hong Kong Exchange, China Mobile, Bilibili, Zijin Mining - Post-market analysis on May 12

Short-term rebound above the moving averages, 26,500 becomes the first target for bulls

The Hang Seng Index is currently at 26,347.91 points, having rebounded above the 10-day line at 26,155.12 points, the 20-day line at 26,137.80 points, and the 30-day line at 25,857.12 points. The trend has stabilized temporarily after bouncing from earlier lows. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 26,137.80 points, the upper band at 26,646.18 points, and the lower band at 25,629.43 points. The current price is above the middle band but has not approached the upper band, indicating that the short-term rebound still has room to extend, though it hasn’t officially broken out yet.

Bullish investors are targeting 26,500 points, which is close to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 26,646.18 points, making it a reasonable short-term testing area. If the Hang Seng Index can hold steady between 26,137.80 and 26,155.12 points, there’s potential for a push towards 26,500 points in the short term. However, if it fails to break through near 26,500 points, the index may consolidate between the middle and upper bands.

Bearish investors believe it will drop directly to 26,000 points and have chosen bear certificates with a recovery price of 26,900 points. Technically speaking, 26,000 points is indeed a key short-term level to watch because if the Hang Seng Index falls below 26,137.80 and 26,155.12 points, the trend will retreat below the middle band again, weakening short-term support. This could increase pressure for a retest of 26,000 points or even 25,857.12 points.

The Relative Strength Index is approximately 56.298, showing neither overheating nor weakness, reflecting a neutral and stable trend at present. The short-term watershed can be set around 26,137.80 to 26,155.12 points. If this region holds steady, bulls may continue to see a rebound; if it breaks below this area, the likelihood of bears targeting 26,000 points will increase significantly.

Reply to investor comments:

Bullish investors: 26,500 points can be considered as the first short-term target since the current price of 26,347.91 points remains above the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, with the upper Bollinger Band at 26,646.18 points. However, holders of bullish warrants with a stop-loss at 25,900 points should pay attention to the support level between 26,137.80 and 26,155.12 points; if this range is breached, the risk will increase significantly.

Bearish investors: Reaching 26,000 points is not impossible, but the index needs to break below the 26,137.80 to 26,155.12 point range first to indicate short-term weakness. Bearish warrants with a stop-loss at 26,900 points are still far from the current price, but if the Hang Seng Index approaches 26,500 to 26,646.18 points, warrant volatility will increase, requiring risk management.

2. Zhipu's short-term trend weakens, with 800 yuan temporarily being the downside risk zone.

Zhipu’s current price is 840.000 yuan, down 59.000 yuan today, marking a 6.56% decline, indicating a clear weakening in the short-term trend. The stock price has fallen below the 10-day moving average at 892.650 yuan, the 20-day moving average at 915.200 yuan, and the 30-day moving average at 882.283 yuan, meaning the previous rebound structure has been disrupted, shifting from consolidation near highs to weakness.

The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at 915.200 yuan, the upper band at 1,028.93 yuan, and the lower band at 801.468 yuan. The current price of 840.000 yuan is already below the middle line and is approaching the lower band. Investors are asking if it might fall back to 800 yuan; technically, 800 yuan is indeed the next key support level to watch as the lower Bollinger Band is at 801.468 yuan, very close to 800 yuan.

However, whether it falls directly back to 800 yuan depends on whether the price can hold steady near 840 yuan and whether the stock can regain the 882.283 to 892.650 yuan range. If the 30-day and 10-day moving averages cannot be reclaimed in the short term, the downward trend will likely persist, increasing the probability of testing 801.468 yuan. Conversely, if the price can recover above 882.283 yuan, the downtrend might stabilize for now.

The Relative Strength Index is about 36.393, nearing the weak zone but not yet at an extreme oversold level, suggesting selling pressure hasn’t fully subsided. The short-term watershed lies around 882.283 to 892.650 yuan; until that range is reclaimed, the vicinity of 800 yuan should be viewed as the primary downside risk.

Reply to investor comments:

800 yuan is not impossible, as the current price of 840.000 yuan has fallen below the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, while the lower Bollinger Band is at 801.468 yuan, very close to 800 yuan. If it fails to return above the range of 882.283 yuan to 892.650 yuan in the short term, the risk of a retest near 800 yuan will increase; however, if it can regain this area, the downward trend might ease first.

Hong Kong Exchange shows short-term strength, but 500 yuan remains an aggressive target.

The current price of Hong Kong Exchange is 423.800 yuan, showing relatively strong short-term momentum. The stock price is above the 10-day line at 419.460 yuan, the 20-day line at 415.840 yuan, and the 30-day line at 410.000 yuan, indicating that the share price has regained its position above key moving averages, transitioning from earlier lows to a stronger consolidation. The middle Bollinger Band is at 415.840 yuan, the upper band at 427.655 yuan, and the lower band at 404.025 yuan; the current price is close to the upper band, representing improved short-term momentum.

Investors believe there's a good chance of exceeding 500 yuan in June, which is an aggressive view. From the current technical position, the Hong Kong Exchange first needs to break through and stabilize above 427.655 yuan to open further upside potential. If it fails to break the upper Bollinger Band, the stock may consolidate between 415.840 yuan and 427.655 yuan. A break above 427.655 yuan would allow for observation of extended upside potential around 428 yuan and higher levels.

Investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of 480.2 yuan should note that the underlying stock is still far from the exercise price. For the current price of 423.800 yuan to approach 480.2 yuan, the stock needs to break through short-term resistance and extend its upward movement. Therefore, the short-term focus is not immediately on 500 yuan, but rather on whether 427.655 yuan can be broken and whether 415.840 yuan can hold steady.

The Relative Strength Index is about 61.397, indicating neutral to slightly strong momentum without overheating. The short-term inflection point could be placed at 415.840 yuan; maintaining this level still supports a continued rebound. If it breaks below 415.840 yuan, the uptrend may turn into consolidation, requiring further observation of support near 410.000 yuan.

Reply to investor comments:

Above 500 yuan is an aggressive target, and for now, we need to see if Hong Kong Exchange can break through and stabilize above 427.655 yuan. Although the current price of 423.800 yuan is already above the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines, it is still close to the upper Bollinger Band and before a breakout occurs, it shouldn't be directly assumed that significant upside space has opened up.

Call warrants with an exercise price of 480.2 yuan are considered an aggressive strategy since the current underlying price of 423.800 yuan is still far from 480.2 yuan. The short-term key is whether 427.655 yuan can be broken and whether 415.840 yuan can hold. A break above the upper band would improve warrant elasticity, but breaking below the midline would significantly increase risks.

China Mobile’s short-term strength remains intact, but the risk of entering at the current price is starting to rise.

China Mobile is currently trading at 86.500 yuan, maintaining a strong short-term trend. The stock price is above the 10-day moving average at 85.065 yuan, the 20-day moving average at 83.888 yuan, and the 30-day moving average at 82.483 yuan, reflecting that the upward trend structure remains intact. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 83.888 yuan, the upper band at 87.019 yuan, and the lower band at 80.756 yuan. The current price is close to the upper band, indicating strong short-term momentum but also nearing a resistance zone.

Investors are asking whether entering now carries the risk of chasing highs; the answer is yes, there is some risk of chasing highs. The reason is that the current price has risen near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 87.019 yuan, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 81.055, which is relatively high, indicating strong short-term momentum but also signs of overheating. If it fails to break through 87.019 yuan and stabilize, the stock price may consolidate at higher levels first.

However, strength does not mean an immediate weakening. As long as China Mobile stays above 85.065 yuan and 83.888 yuan, the short-term uptrend remains intact. If it can break through 87.019 yuan, there is still a chance to continue the uptrend. However, if it falls below 85.065 yuan, the risk of chasing increases, with the next support level at 83.888 yuan.

Investors who continue to monitor bull certificates with a call price of 75 yuan need to be aware that such positions lean towards a bullish outlook, but the current stock price is already close to the upper band, so the entry point isn't low. The call price of 75 yuan is at a certain distance from the current price, but if the stock price pulls back from its high, the bull certificate will still be affected by volatility. For a more conservative short-term strategy, it's better to wait until the stock price stabilizes above 85.065 yuan or breaks through 87.019 yuan before making further decisions.

Reply to investor comments:

Entering now carries some risk of chasing highs because China Mobile’s current price of 86.500 yuan is close to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 87.019 yuan, and the RSI is around 81.055, which is relatively high. If it fails to break through 87.019 yuan, the stock may consolidate in the short term; the key is whether it can hold above 85.065 yuan and 83.888 yuan.

The bull certificate with a call price of 75 yuan is at a certain distance from the current price, offering a relatively larger safety margin, but the stock is already in a high-price range, so entering still carries the risk of chasing highs. If the stock price holds above 85.065 yuan, the position still has bullish potential; however, if it falls below 85.065 yuan, short-term risks will increase.

5. Bilibili remains weak in the short term, with initial support seen at 164.2 yuan.

Bilibili is currently trading at 170.500 yuan, remaining in a weak consolidation phase in the short term. The stock price is below the 10-day moving average at 171.380 yuan, the 20-day moving average at 178.895 yuan, and the 30-day moving average at 179.687 yuan, showing insufficient rebound momentum and failing to regain key moving averages for now. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 178.895 yuan, the upper band at 199.614 yuan, and the lower band at 158.176 yuan. The current price remains below the middle band, indicating the trend hasn’t strengthened yet.

Investors are asking where the support level is. In the short term, the first support can be seen at 164.200 yuan. If 164.200 yuan is breached, the next support would be the lower band of the Bollinger Bands at 158.176 yuan. The current RSI is approximately 40.192, indicating weakness but not extreme oversold conditions, suggesting the stock price still has downside risk to test support.

Some investors believe now is the time to increase their put warrant positions, holding products with a strike price of 133.88 yuan. Technically, Bilibili has yet to regain its 10-day and 20-day moving averages, so the logic for maintaining short positions still holds, but the current price is already close to the 164.200 yuan support level. If it falls near this support level in the short term and does not break below, the attractiveness of chasing put warrants will decrease. Conversely, if it breaks below 164.200 yuan, the likelihood of testing 158.176 yuan will increase.

The short-term watershed can be set between 171.380 yuan and 178.895 yuan. Before regaining this zone, the trend remains weak; if it rises above 178.895 yuan again, short positioning needs to be scaled back.

Reply to investor comment:

Immediate support below is at 164.200 yuan; if it breaks below that, the next level of support is at the lower Bollinger Band of 158.176 yuan. The current price of 170.500 yuan is still below the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend hasn't strengthened yet.

Put warrants with a strike price of 133.88 yuan are considered bearish positions. The technical outlook is still weak, but attention should be paid to the 164.200 yuan support level. If it breaks below 164.200 yuan, the probability of success for bearish positions will increase; if it holds firm and rebounds, the risk of increasing put warrant positions will rise.

Zijin Mining shows short-term strength, but 50 yuan is an aggressive target.

Zijin Mining's current price is 38.440 yuan, showing an improved short-term trend. The stock price is above the 10-day moving average of 36.898 yuan, the 20-day moving average of 37.109 yuan, and the 30-day moving average of 36.567 yuan, indicating that the price has regained its position above key moving averages. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at 37.109 yuan, the upper band is at 39.090 yuan, and the lower band is at 35.128 yuan. The current price is approaching the upper band, suggesting short-term momentum is on the stronger side.

Investors believe that the rebound in gold prices, strong copper prices, and dual drivers from resource stocks are positive factors, and the stock could reach 50 yuan. From a technical perspective, the immediate focus isn’t directly on reaching 50 yuan but first on whether it can break through and stabilize above 39.090 yuan. If it successfully breaks above the upper band, the stock will have the conditions to challenge higher levels; otherwise, it may consolidate in the short term between 37.109 yuan and 39.090 yuan.

Investors holding call warrants with a strike price of 42 yuan need to note that the current underlying stock price of 38.440 yuan is still far from 42 yuan. If the stock price can break above 39.090 yuan, the elasticity of the call warrants will improve; however, if it falls below 37.109 yuan, short-term strength will weaken, and the risk for call warrants will increase.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 65.398, which is moderately strong but not excessively overheated. The short-term watershed can be placed at 39.090 yuan; breaking through and stabilizing above this level would favor the continuation of the rebound; otherwise, defense at 37.109 yuan is necessary.

Reply to investor comment:

$50 is a more aggressive target. For now, we need to see if Zijin Mining can break through $39.090. The current price of $38.440 is already above the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, showing short-term strength. However, until it breaks above the upper Bollinger Band, the upward potential cannot be fully unlocked.

A call warrant with an exercise price of $42 represents a bullish strategy, but the key is whether the underlying stock can first break through $39.090. If it breaks through, the warrant's upside potential will improve. However, if it falls below $37.109, the short-term trend will weaken, and position risk needs to be reassessed.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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