May 11 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Kuaishou, CR Beer,

1. Hang Seng Index: Some investors believe it will test 26,800 points and have chosen to purchase bull contracts with a stop-loss level at 24,850 points. Other investors think there is resistance at 26,500 points and opted for bear contracts in the closing session, setting the stop-loss level at 26,700 points.

The current price of the Hang Seng Index is 26,406.84, showing a short-term consolidation after rebounding. The index is currently above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 26,103.45 but has not yet reached the upper band at 26,642.33, indicating that the trend is stable but not yet strengthening. Regarding moving averages, the current price is slightly above the 10-day line at 26,112.89 and the 20-day line at 26,103.45 but remains constrained by overhead resistance, maintaining an overall sideways yet stable pattern.

Support can initially be observed around 26,100, where the middle band of the Bollinger Bands overlaps with the short-term moving averages. If this support is broken, the next downside target would be 25,564.57, corresponding to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. On the resistance side, 26,642.33 is the most critical short-term level, close to the market's focus range between 26,500 and 26,800. If it fails to break through effectively, the rebound structure will struggle to evolve into a trending movement.

The Relative Strength Index is around 59, indicating neutral to slightly strong momentum, but it has not yet entered the strong zone, reflecting that the market is still waiting to see if there's enough momentum to break through the upper resistance. Trading volume hasn't shown significant expansion to support a breakout, indicating funds haven't fully entered, and short-term trading will remain range-bound.

Market sentiment shows clear divergence. Some investors believe the index could test 26,800 points and are choosing to buy bull contracts with a stop-loss at 24,850, a strategy aimed at deploying for a medium-term rebound with a distant stop-loss. Others think there is resistance at 26,500 and have bought bear contracts with a stop-loss at 26,700 towards the close, reflecting some funds are pre-emptively positioning for a pullback at resistance levels.

For bullish positions targeting a test of 26,800, the key is whether the index can break through and stabilize above 26,642.33. Only after a successful breakout above the upper Bollinger Band will there technically be room to extend towards 26,800; otherwise, it remains range-bound volatility near the upper band. The stop-loss at 24,850 is relatively far from the current price, offering a good short-term safety margin, but if the index fails to break out, time decay and repeated fluctuations will affect position efficiency.

As for bearish strategies deployed near 26,500, the logic lies in taking an early counter-position before resistance breaks. However, note that the 26,700 stop-loss is relatively close to the current price, meaning a false breakout or sudden spike could rapidly amplify risks. This type of deployment suits very short-term intraday trades rather than holding positions for extended periods.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index remains in a consolidation phase between 26,100 and 26,642 without a clear direction. A breakout above 26,642 is needed to open upside potential; otherwise, the range between 26,500 and 26,600 is likely to remain under pressure. If 26,100 is breached, a retest of lower support should be anticipated. For short-term strategies, focus on "waiting for a breakout or a pullback" rather than chasing prices in the middle of the range. $BI-HSI @EC2609A.C (23798.HK)$$JP-HSI @EC2608B.C (26361.HK)$$UB-HSI @EP2608A.P (26468.HK)$$BI#HSI RC2809G.C (56831.HK)$$BI#HSI RP2803A.P (62631.HK)$

Kuaishou-W (01024.HK): Investors ask, is it really that hard to reach 56 yuan? Some investors continue to focus on call warrants with an exercise price of 58 yuan, believing the stock price will challenge 60 yuan.

Kuaishou’s current price is 51.600, having rebounded significantly from its recent low of 41.920, and has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 51.004. The trend has shifted from weak sideways movement to a short-term breakout. The current price is above the 10-day moving average (45.893), 20-day moving average (45.691), and 30-day moving average (45.889), reflecting a noticeable improvement in the short-term structure.

Technically, 51.004 is now the most critical threshold. As long as the stock price holds above it, the short-term uptrend can remain intact, with the next observation level being the 56-yuan mark that investors are watching. However, the Relative Strength Index is currently around 74.912, entering overbought territory, indicating that while the upward momentum is strong, the risk of chasing the rally also increases. In terms of trading volume, turnover has noticeably increased, supporting the breakout, though short-term volatility may occur after the rapid rise.

Investors asking 'Is reaching 56 yuan so difficult?' need to focus less on the 56-yuan level itself and more on whether the stock price can hold above 51 yuan first. Kuaishou has rebounded from 41.920 to 51.600, representing a substantial short-term gain, and the market needs time to digest profit-taking. If the price can hold above 51.004 with continued volume support, 56 yuan can remain the next rebound target; otherwise, if it falls below 51.004, the breakout fails, and the price might retest support around 45.893–45.691.

As for investors who continue to focus on call warrants with an exercise price of 58 yuan and expect the stock price to challenge 60 yuan, their strategy reflects optimism about an extended breakout. If Kuaishou can stabilize above 51.004 and gradually approach 56 yuan, warrant leverage will increase. However, the 58-yuan exercise price is still above the current price, making it an aggressive play requiring sustained upward movement to be favorable. If the stock merely fluctuates between 51 and 56 yuan, time decay will impact position efficiency.

Overall, Kuaishou has turned stronger in the short term, but it’s not without risks to chase upward movements. The key short-term level is 51.004; holding above this could lead to a further target of 56, and breaking through 56 would set the stage to observe the 60 mark. If it fails to hold 51.004, it indicates insufficient upward momentum, and the stock may consolidate near 45.7 in the short term. $UBKUASO@EC2702A.C (27777.HK)$$MSKUASO@EC2611A.C (27499.HK)$$JP#KUASORC2610F.C (69508.HK)$$HS#KUASORP2812C.P (64295.HK)$

3. China Resources Beer (00291.HK): Investors believe that the World Cup in June might drive an upward movement; what’s the resistance level to watch?

China Resources Beer is currently trading at 27.020, with a noticeable improvement in its short-term rebound. The stock has moved back above the 10-day line at 26.326, the 20-day line at 26.255, and the 30-day line at 26.151, shifting the technical structure from earlier lows to a relatively stronger position. The price is now approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 27.148, which is the nearest direct resistance level.

Investors believe that the World Cup in June might trigger an upward movement. From a technical perspective, the first resistance level to watch is 27.148. If the stock can break and stabilize above 27.148, there may be a short-term opportunity to test 27.860, near the previous high. In other words, 27.148 is the short-term breakout threshold, while 27.860 is the next clear upside target.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 66.883, showing strong momentum but not yet extremely overheated, indicating the potential for further testing of resistance levels. However, if the price fails to break above 27.148, it might consolidate between 26.255 and 27.148. Immediate support can be found between 26.326 and 26.255; if this range is breached, the strength of the short-term rebound will weaken.

Overall, China Resources Beer is not in a weak position at present. In the short term, the focus is on the resistance at 27.148; once broken, the next target is 27.860. For further confirmation of the uptrend, the stock needs to stabilize above 27.148 rather than relying solely on a single day’s spike.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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