Multi-scenario analysis of the Middle East situation: What’s next for the US and Iran?

Guest: Joe Yu, Executive Director of Institutional and Private Wealth at Futu Securities

Host: Richard

1. Market Insights This Week: 'Goldilocks' Employment Data, China’s Exports Beat Expectations (00:01:14 ~ 00:08:00)

[Weekly Market Insights] US-Iran thaw prompts oil price pullback, AI focus returns

[Macroeconomic Observations]

US non-farm payrolls for April exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.34%, with low wage growth, presenting a 'strong on the surface, weak underneath' scenario.There is neither recession pressure nor reflation pressure, a market-friendly combination, with US stocks, US bonds, and gold all rising.

China's April exports increased by 14% year-on-year, with the AI industrial chain becoming the core engine. The year-on-year growth rate of integrated circuit exports nearly doubled, and auto exports increased by 44% year-on-year. The resilience of H1 exports has been basically established.

Core conclusion:Employment data that does not trigger a recession or rate hikes is the 'optimal solution' the market can currently accept

[US Stock Strategy] Earnings-driven replaces interest rate sensitivity

The market logic has shifted from interest rate sensitivity to earnings-driven strategies, focusing on AI infrastructure and tech leaders, butthe recent large gains should not be extrapolated linearly. Holders should accept higher volatility, and profit-taking could be considered for high-performing sectors.。

This week's selection $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$ : Annual revenue increased by 23% year-on-year, with growth exceeding 20% for three consecutive fiscal years; demand for AI CPU products surged from $1 billion to $2 billion, while supply chain capacity bottlenecks are short-term noise rather than a fundamental bearish factor.

[HK Stock Strategy] Fivefold Support, Layered Positioning

The Hang Seng Index rose 2.4% last week, with the Hang Seng Tech Index performing even stronger, supported by five key rebound factors: ① Valuation at the 29th percentile since 2015; ② Strong support from southbound funds following an oversold tech sector; ③ Optimized real estate policies implemented in key cities; ④ Marginal easing of geopolitical risks; ⑤ Intensive releases of domestic and international large-scale AI models.

The strategy is divided into three layers: dividend anchor (high-yield telecom operators/banks) + computing power and internet leaders + hedging positions added when necessary.

Stock Pick of the Week $JOHNSON ELEC H (00179.HK)$ : Entering AI liquid cooling and robotics joint/advanced robotic hand actuator sectors, driven by continuous inflows of southbound capital, with rumors that its products may enter Tesla Optimus' supply chain.

II. Current Situation Analysis of US-Iran Relations: Talks Without Resolution, Pulse-like Attrition (00:14:22 ~ 00:18:05)

Military confrontations occurred in the Strait of Hormuz on May 7-8, but neither side intends to escalate. Motivations for negotiation exist, but due to information asymmetry, unclear bottom lines, and no consensus on payment matrices, the situation remains in a pulse-like war of attrition. Three core issues remain unresolved.

The US insists Iran commits to not developing nuclear weapons;

② Sanctions and blockades remain unrelaxed;

③ Rules for passage through the Strait of Hormuz remain a focal point of contention.

III. Scenario Analysis and Major Asset Allocation (00:20:07 ~ 00:30:57)

Scenario One (Baseline/Highest Probability)——Prolonged Stalemate, High Oil Price Volatility; No Breakthrough in Nuclear Issues or Blockades;

Scenario Two (Lowest Probability)——Rapid Easing, Risk Premium Declines; Growth Stocks and Pro-Cyclical Stocks Benefit, but Normalization of Petrochemical Supply Chains Takes About 250 Days; Even with a Quick Ceasefire, Oil Prices Remain Elevated for 1-2 Quarters;

Scenario Three (Low Probability)——Long-Term Escalation. Major Asset View: Equities Focus on High-Growth Technology, Buy on Pullbacks; Gold Offers Dual Hedge Against Geopolitical Risks and Policy Uncertainty;

Crude Oil as a Tactical Allocation, Negotiation Expectations Rise Leading to Oil Price Pullbacks — an Entry Opportunity; US Bonds Require Caution, Rising Oil Prices Undermine Rate Cut Expectations.

If oil prices remain in the $90-100 range, focus on three types of China-related assets: ① $CNOOC (00883.HK)$ (Hong Kong stocks' PE ratio is about 9x), $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$ (PE approximately 11x); ② Coal chemical substitution logic; ③ Energy storage and power equipment $CATL (03750.HK)$ , directly benefiting from the expansion of energy infrastructure.

Core conclusion: Gold is the optimal cross-scenario hedge asset in the 'post-conflict era'; crude oil presents a short-term allocation window amid expected negotiation-driven pullbacks.

IV. Selected Q&A Session

Q: What are the latest developments on Tesla Optimus robot mass production?

A: The technical drawings for the dexterous hand did not pass the first review in April. A second review was initiated between May 5-7, with results expected around May 20. The market widely anticipates a high probability of approval.

The V3 robot demonstration video has been postponed due to approval delays, shifting from Q1 2026 to a mid-year release.

Mass production timeline: Starting in Q3 2026, reaching a weekly production level of 2,000 units by Q4 2026.

Q: How will gold perform under different scenarios?

A: Gold's drivers can be divided into two phases: The first phase (early stages of conflict) is driven by risk aversion, with a higher probability of price increases. We have now entered the second phase.The core variables are oil prices → inflation expectations → real interest rates。

Scenario A (Ceasefire in phases + Oil prices retreat to around $90):Risk aversion fades and rate cut expectations are limited; gold consolidates with high volatility;

Scenario B (Ceasefire + U.S. economic weakness + Fed turns dovish):Gold transitions into a macro-driven bull market supported by easing policies;

Scenario C (Prolonged blockade + Oil prices at $100-120 + Fears of hyperinflation):Initial decline followed by a rise, offering the greatest upside potential.

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Feel free to discuss in the comment section!

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