CIRCLE is about to announce its earnings

Circle, the issuer of the US dollar stablecoin USDC, will release its first-quarter financial report before the US stock market opens on May 11th. A conference call to discuss the financial results and business updates will be held at 8:00 PM Beijing time on May 11th. The market expects Q1 revenue to be approximately $715 million, a decrease of about 7% from $770 million in Q4 2025, but still an increase of approximately 11% year-over-year. GAAP earnings per share are expected to be $0.18, with adjusted earnings per share expected at $0.27.

📊 Circle (CRCL) Earnings Preview — 5/11 Pre-Market Release

$Circle (CRCL.US)$ $Circle (CRCL.US)$ will announce its Q1 2026 earnings report pre-market on Monday (5/11).

🔍 Key Earnings Watch Points

1️⃣ USDC Circulation

Approximately 95% of Circle's revenue comes from interest generated by USDC reserve assets, making the scale of USDC a critical factor for revenue.

The current market value of USDC has rebounded from $75.3 billion at the end of last year to approximately $78 billion. The market is focusing on quarter-end figures as well as the trend in average quarterly circulation.

2️⃣ Reserve Yield Rates

The Fed rate remains at 3.5%-3.75%. Compared to the high-interest-rate environment of the past two years, the current yield environment has changed. Whether USDC grows in scale will affect revenue performance amid declining reserve yields.

3️⃣ Regulatory Developments

Recent adjustments have been made to the stablecoin provisions of the Clarity Act: restrictions on passive income akin to bank deposits, but rewards mechanisms based on real usage behavior are allowed. The development of the stablecoin regulatory framework may impact USDC's institutional adoption and market competition environment.

4️⃣ Non-interest income

Currently, non-interest income (payments, Web3 software services, CPN, etc.) accounts for less than 5% of total revenue, with last quarter’s amount at $37 million, a quarterly increase of 29%. The development of this business will affect the market's evaluation of Circle's revenue structure.

💡 Key Earnings Issues

Whether USDC’s scale growth can respond to changes in reserve yields; whether the proportion of non-interest income is gradually increasing; management’s perspective on the regulatory environment.

Circle’s 2x leverage ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is increasingly attracting investor attention:

Trading activity related to a '2x Leveraged Circle ETF' in the market has shown a notable continuous growth trend. Data indicates that as the product entered the first quarter of 2026, its trading volume expanded further, doubling sequentially once again. The overlap in timing between the two reflects that when Bitcoin's price shows directional changes, investors’ willingness to participate in leveraged products within the Circle ecosystem also rises.

This series of increases reflects, to a certain extent, the heightenedattentionfrom market participants toward Circle-related assets. Meanwhile, inflows into leveraged ETF products can also be interpreted as changes in investors' expectations of short-term volatility in the underlying assets, as well as rising demand for leverage tools as a means to express market views or manage risk.It is important to note that rapid expansion in trading volumes does not necessarily equate to unilateral buying sentiment; it may also include diverse strategic components such as hedging, short-term trading, and arbitrage.

Overall, changes in the product's data can be consideredone of the objective indicators of market attention on the Circle ecosystem, also indirectly reflecting investors' actual reactions to the interaction between high-volatility assets and leverage tools within a specific time period. Observers should comprehensively consider the overall market environment, regulatory trends, and changes in the fundamentals of the underlying assets to form a more comprehensive understanding of this trend.

Risk Warning:

Leverage is a double-edged sword. While it amplifies potential gains, it equally magnifies potential losses. Additionally, since its design goal is to track 'single-day' performance, holding it over a longer period may cause deviations from the two-times cumulative return of the underlying asset due to compounding erosion in volatile markets. Therefore, these products are more suitable for experienced investors who can closely monitor the market, have high risk tolerance, and possess an in-depth understanding of their operational mechanisms.

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