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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a post · May 11 10:59

Meituan's bull-bear power index suggests a potential bottom formation, but the MACD remains bearish.

Today (May 11), Meituan's stock price closed at 83.05 yuan. Over the past five trading days, the price fluctuation was only 5.5%, showing relatively narrower volatility. From a technical perspective, the stock price is at a key position between several major moving averages. The 10-day moving average, around 82.98 yuan, has been firmly established as support, while the 30-day moving average, approximately 84.56 yuan, acts as short-term resistance. The 60-day moving average, about 82.90 yuan, provides medium-term support. Currently, the stock price is consolidating just below the 30-day line, indicating that the market is testing whether it can break out higher. First support is at 80.9 yuan, with second support at 77.6 yuan; first resistance is at 87.2 yuan, and second resistance at 90.5 yuan. The current price of 84.40 yuan is still below the 30-day line but above both the 10-day and 60-day lines, suggesting a sideways consolidation phase following a rebound from lower levels. While no breakout has been confirmed, the structure has improved compared to earlier.
In terms of Bollinger Bands, the current price is close to the middle band, having previously touched the lower band and gradually recovered. The direction of the middle band offers reference value for the continuation of a short-term rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 52, with momentum just returning above the neutral 50 level, placing it at the borderline between weakness and neutrality. This indicates neither strength nor renewed weakness has been confirmed. In this state, stock price sensitivity to positive or negative news increases. A summary signal from comprehensive technical indicators shows 'sell,' but multiple oscillators indicate neutrality. Notably, the bull-bear power indicator suggests 'severe oversold conditions, possible bottoming, buy,' whereas both the MACD and Bollinger Bands are giving sell signals, indicating potential pullback pressure during the rebound process.
Based on May 8 closing data, the stock price was 84.05 yuan, with the technical structure similar to today's, showing little change. This indicates that the stock price continues to test within the same range repeatedly. Recently, the stock rebounded from the support level of 77.6 yuan, but attempts to break through the 30-day moving average at 84.56 yuan have so far failed, reflecting market hesitation over further upward movement, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the short term.
In conclusion, the key for Meituan in the short term lies in whether it can effectively break through 87.2 yuan. If it can hold above 80.9 yuan and surpass 87.2 yuan, the rebound could extend to 90.5 yuan and potentially challenge higher ranges. Conversely, if 80.9 yuan is breached again, a retest of the 77.6 yuan support zone will be necessary. Given that the RSI is only at 52 and there are conflicting signals from the indicators, it is not advisable to rush into positions at this stage. A more prudent strategy would be to wait until the stock price clearly stabilizes above 84.56 yuan before making any directional moves.
Today (May 11), Meituan's stock price closed at 83.05 yuan. Over the past five trading days, the price fluctuation was only 5.5%, showing relatively narrower volatility. From a technical perspective, the stock price is at a key position between several major moving averages. The 10-day moving average, around 82.98 yuan, has been firmly established as support, while the 30-day moving average, approximately 84.56 yuan, acts as short-term resistance. The 60-day moving average, about 82.90 yuan, provides medium-term support. Currently, the stock price is consolidating just below the 30-day line, indicating that the market is testing whether it can break out higher. First support is at 80.9 yuan, with second support at 77.6 yuan; first resistance is at 87.2 yuan, and second resistance at 90.5 yuan. The current price of 84.40 yuan is still below the 30-day line but above both the 10-day and 60-day lines, suggesting a sideways consolidation phase following a rebound from lower levels. While no breakout has been confirmed, the structure has improved compared to earlier. In terms of Bollinger Bands, the current price is close to the middle band, having previously touched the lower band and gradually recovered. The direction of the middle band offers reference value for the continuation of a short-term rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 52, with momentum just returning above the neutral 50 level, placing it at the borderline between weakness and neutrality. This indicates neither strength nor renewed weakness has been confirmed. In this state, stock price sensitivity to positive or negative news increases. A summary signal from comprehensive technical indicators shows 'sell,' but multiple oscillators indicate neutrality. Notably, the bull-bear power indicator suggests 'severe oversold conditions, possible bottoming, buy,' whereas both the MACD and Bollinger Bands are giving sell signals, indicating potential pullback pressure during the rebound process.
Review of Warrant Products
Reviewing the warrant products mentioned on May 6, here’s their performance within two trading days after the mentioned date. HSBC call warrants (26109) gained 13%, compared to a 1.88% rise in the underlying stock, significantly outperforming the stock. JPMorgan bull certificates (63797) rose 11%, also outperforming the underlying stock. UBS Group bull certificates (60462) gained 11%; Bank of China call warrants (25814) rose 10%, again performing better than the underlying stock. All four products successfully amplified gains in the underlying stock via leverage and the timing of the technical rebound. $BIMTUAN@EC2608B.C (25814.HK)$$HSMTUAN@EC2608B.C (26109.HK)$$UB#MTUANRC2701A.C (60462.HK)$
Today (May 11), Meituan's stock price closed at 83.05 yuan. Over the past five trading days, the price fluctuation was only 5.5%, showing relatively narrower volatility. From a technical perspective, the stock price is at a key position between several major moving averages. The 10-day moving average, around 82.98 yuan, has been firmly established as support, while the 30-day moving average, approximately 84.56 yuan, acts as short-term resistance. The 60-day moving average, about 82.90 yuan, provides medium-term support. Currently, the stock price is consolidating just below the 30-day line, indicating that the market is testing whether it can break out higher. First support is at 80.9 yuan, with second support at 77.6 yuan; first resistance is at 87.2 yuan, and second resistance at 90.5 yuan. The current price of 84.40 yuan is still below the 30-day line but above both the 10-day and 60-day lines, suggesting a sideways consolidation phase following a rebound from lower levels. While no breakout has been confirmed, the structure has improved compared to earlier. In terms of Bollinger Bands, the current price is close to the middle band, having previously touched the lower band and gradually recovered. The direction of the middle band offers reference value for the continuation of a short-term rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 52, with momentum just returning above the neutral 50 level, placing it at the borderline between weakness and neutrality. This indicates neither strength nor renewed weakness has been confirmed. In this state, stock price sensitivity to positive or negative news increases. A summary signal from comprehensive technical indicators shows 'sell,' but multiple oscillators indicate neutrality. Notably, the bull-bear power indicator suggests 'severe oversold conditions, possible bottoming, buy,' whereas both the MACD and Bollinger Bands are giving sell signals, indicating potential pullback pressure during the rebound process.
Warrant product recommendations
The following products are analyzed based on today's Meituan stock price of 84.40 yuan and correlated with support and resistance levels.
If the outlook is positive and the stock price is expected to hold above the support level of 80.9 yuan and break through the resistance level of 87.2 yuan, two call warrants are worth considering. The BOC call warrant (25814), with a strike price of 97.9 yuan and an effective leverage of 8.5 times, has the key advantage of having the lowest implied volatility among similar products while maintaining relatively high leverage. Low implied volatility means that the product price is less affected by market sentiment fluctuations, providing more direct tracking of the underlying stock's price changes. The strike price of 97.9 yuan is higher than the second resistance level of 90.5 yuan, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price to break through the resistance zone and continue rising. The UBS call warrant (26081), with a strike price of 97.95 yuan and an effective leverage of 8.6 times, offers the advantage of relatively higher leverage, which amplifies return potential when the underlying stock rises as expected. Its terms are similar to the BOC product, making it suitable for short-term traders with a faster trading rhythm or as part of a diversified investment strategy.
If the stock price is expected to face resistance between 87.2 yuan and 90.5 yuan or falls below the support level of 80.9 yuan and weakens further, consider the following two put warrants. The BOC put warrant (27411) $BIMTUAN@EP2612C.P (27411.HK)$ , with a strike price of 71.83 yuan and effective leverage of 3.8 times, offers the advantage of ideal leverage and implied volatility. The strike price of 71.83 yuan is lower than the second support level of 77.6 yuan, meaning it will only gradually move in-the-money if the stock price weakens significantly. This makes it suitable for medium-term bearish strategies anticipating a prolonged downtrend, with controlled implied volatility helping reduce additional losses caused by market fluctuations. The UBS put warrant (27240) $UBMTUAN@EP2612B.P (27240.HK)$ , with a strike price of 71.83 yuan and effective leverage of 3.9 times, has the advantage of the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, providing more direct tracking of declines in the underlying stock. Its leverage is slightly higher than the BOC product, making it suitable for short-term capturing of downward momentum after confirming a breakdown below the 80.9 yuan support level.
For bullish investors seeking to set clear stop-loss levels, the UBS bull contract (60462) can be considered. With a call price of 72.6 yuan and effective leverage of 5.6 times, this product offers relatively high leverage among similar bull contracts. The call price is below the second support level of 77.6 yuan, about 14% away from the current price, offering a reasonable safety buffer while maintaining high leverage. It is suitable for strategies anticipating the stock price to hold above the 77.6 yuan support level and rebound. The J.P. Morgan bull contract (63797), with a call price of 72.5 yuan and effective leverage of 5.7 times, also offers high leverage, with a slightly lower call price than the UBS product. Its terms are similar, making it suitable for phased deployment or investors favoring J.P. Morgan issuers.
For bearish strategies, the J.P. Morgan bear contract (57768) $JP#MTUANRP2809B.P (57768.HK)$ , with a call price of 89 yuan and effective leverage of 12.5 times, offers relatively high leverage among bear contracts. The call price of 89 yuan lies between the first resistance level of 87.2 yuan and the second resistance level of 90.5 yuan, meaning there would only be a recall risk if the stock price clearly breaks above 87.2 yuan. If the stock price faces resistance around 87.2 yuan and retreats, this contract can effectively track the pullback. The high leverage is suitable for short-term bearish strategies, but stop-loss management should be noted. The UBS bear contract (57308) $UB#MTUANRP2812M.P (57308.HK)$ , with a call price of 90 yuan and effective leverage of 11.1 times, has the advantage of the lowest premium and relatively high actual leverage. The call price is above the second resistance level of 90.5 yuan, providing greater safety margin while maintaining high leverage. It is suitable for bearish strategies anticipating the stock price to remain under pressure within the resistance range.
Today (May 11), Meituan's stock price closed at 83.05 yuan. Over the past five trading days, the price fluctuation was only 5.5%, showing relatively narrower volatility. From a technical perspective, the stock price is at a key position between several major moving averages. The 10-day moving average, around 82.98 yuan, has been firmly established as support, while the 30-day moving average, approximately 84.56 yuan, acts as short-term resistance. The 60-day moving average, about 82.90 yuan, provides medium-term support. Currently, the stock price is consolidating just below the 30-day line, indicating that the market is testing whether it can break out higher. First support is at 80.9 yuan, with second support at 77.6 yuan; first resistance is at 87.2 yuan, and second resistance at 90.5 yuan. The current price of 84.40 yuan is still below the 30-day line but above both the 10-day and 60-day lines, suggesting a sideways consolidation phase following a rebound from lower levels. While no breakout has been confirmed, the structure has improved compared to earlier. In terms of Bollinger Bands, the current price is close to the middle band, having previously touched the lower band and gradually recovered. The direction of the middle band offers reference value for the continuation of a short-term rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 52, with momentum just returning above the neutral 50 level, placing it at the borderline between weakness and neutrality. This indicates neither strength nor renewed weakness has been confirmed. In this state, stock price sensitivity to positive or negative news increases. A summary signal from comprehensive technical indicators shows 'sell,' but multiple oscillators indicate neutrality. Notably, the bull-bear power indicator suggests 'severe oversold conditions, possible bottoming, buy,' whereas both the MACD and Bollinger Bands are giving sell signals, indicating potential pullback pressure during the rebound process.
Warm Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should be made using other data, and trading decisions should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow HK Stocks Warrants Jenny for more professional insights.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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