Trump visited China from May 13 to 15
Weekly Outlook | Powell's term ends, Warsh takes over; Trump may visit China, US and China CPI data to be released; Earnings reports from Circle, Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com, SMIC on the way; IPOs for Ledo Robotics, Jitai Technology, and Impel Pharma
– US and China CPI data set for release, with US inflation possibly continuing upward due to energy impacts
At 09:30 Beijing time on May 11, China will release April CPI and PPI data. At 20:30 Beijing time on May 12, the US will release April CPI data, followed by PPI data on the 13th.
Regarding domestic data, CICC forecasts that April may see a divergence in internal and external demand growth rates, with consumption and investment growth slowing at the margin while export growth could rebound. Amid the Middle East conflict, the PPI year-on-year growth rate may rise further to 1.8%, and the CPI year-on-year growth rate may stabilize around 1.0%, implying that April’s GDP deflator growth rate could exceed 1%.
The market expects that the US April CPI will be pushed up by energy prices due to the situation in the Middle East, following a sharp increase of 0.9% in March, with a further rise of 0.6%. In their May 8 report, Goldman Sachs economists projected that due to inflation being more stubborn than expected, expectations for the Federal Reserve's next two interest rate cuts have each been pushed back by one quarter, to December 2026 and March 2027 respectively. They also predicted that this year’s core PCE inflation in the US should be closer to 3%, rather than the Fed’s 2% target.
– Will Trump visit China on May 14-15? Foreign Ministry: Both sides are maintaining communication on this matter.
In March this year, according to CCTV News, regarding US President Trump’s statement that he would visit China in mid-May, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded at a regular press conference on March 26, saying that head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino-US relations. Both China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. On May 7, according to US media reports, the US government invited chief executives from NVIDIA, Apple, Exxon Mobil, Boeing, and other major companies to join the trip.
– Fed Chair Powell’s term ends, nomination of Warsh for succession moves to final vote.
The US Senate Banking Committee approved Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair on April 29, 2026, with a party-line vote of 13 in favor and 11 against.The nomination was then submitted to the full Senate, with the final confirmation vote expected during the week of May 11 to ensure his ability to preside over the June interest rate meeting. Powell's term is set to expire on May 15.However, due to criminal investigation entanglements involving the White House, Powell will continue to remain on the Federal Reserve Board and theoretically can stay until early 2028.
– Tech leaders including Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com, and SMIC are releasing their earnings reports, and the market will test the recovery potential of AI and semiconductors.
Hong Kong stocks $JD-SW (09618.HK)$Earnings will be announced on May 12.$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、$BABA-W (09988.HK)$The company will release its results on May 13, and its performance will directly affect valuation sentiment in Hong Kong's tech sector.$SMIC (00981.HK)$、$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$ The two leading semiconductor foundries will release their results simultaneously on May 14, in the new energy vehicle sector$LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$, autonomous driving company$WERIDE-W (00800.HK)$, and online music platform $TME-SW (01698.HK)$ will also disclose earnings. The competitive landscape and profitability paths of their respective sectors are worth watching.
In the US stock market, the leading stablecoin company $Circle (CRCL.US)$、$Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$、 $Oklo Inc (OKLO.US)$ 、 $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$、 $Figma Inc (FIG.US)$ and other companies will successively announce their financial reports.
– Continue to monitor developments in the Iran situation. Trump previously indicated that an agreement might be reached during the week of May 11.
The US-Iran situation presents a complex scenario of 'fighting while talking, sanctioning while engaging.' According to previous reports by CCTV News, Pakistani sources claimed that the US and Iran were close to reaching a ceasefire memorandum of understanding, with Trump indicating an agreement could be reached during the week of May 11. However, direct clashes between the US and Iran erupted again near the Strait.
According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Iran's Ambassador to Armenia, Khalil Sherkhrami, emphasized that Iran is willing to reach an agreement through negotiations but requires clear assurances that the US will adopt a rational and logical approach to ensure no further military aggression against Iran. He also stressed that Iran opposes selective interpretations of international law and will never allow the Iranian nation to be deprived of its right to peaceful use of nuclear capabilities.
– Duan Yongping and Berkshire Hathaway will reveal their latest US stock holdings.
Friday is the filing deadline for institutional investors to disclose their US stock holdings as of March 31 (Form 13F). Chinese investors are highly attentive to the portfolio disclosures from Yonping Duan and Berkshire Hathaway, which has just changed leadership. There were rumors that after new CEO Abel took over at Berkshire, he liquidated approximately $15 billion in holdings managed by former investment manager Todd Combs. During Buffett's era, Combs and Ted Weschler, the current investment manager, jointly managed about 10% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio, while Buffett himself made decisions on the remaining 90%.
– New York Fed President Williams and several other Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches.
Permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President on May 15WilliamsParticipate in a discussion. 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harker delivered opening remarks at an online seminar on central bank independence.
On the 14th, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed PresidentLoganParticipate in a dialogue on the energy industry. 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari attended a discussion hosted by the local chamber of commerce.
On the 13th, 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed PresidentCollinsDelivered a speech at the Boston Economic Club. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a Q&A session hosted by the local chamber of commerce.
On the 12th, permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed PresidentWilliamsParticipate in a panel discussion on monetary policy.
Key earnings calendar for the new week.
Monday (May 11)
Keywords:China’s April CPI & PPI, RoboSense going public, Circle earnings report
In terms of economic data,China’s April PPI and CPI will be released at 9:30 AM Beijing time.
US stocks$Circle (CRCL.US)$、$Barrick Mining (B.US)$、$The Mosaic (MOS.US)$will release earnings report before the US stock market opens;$Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$、$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$、$Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR.US)$、$Plug Power (PLUG.US)$will release earnings report after the US stock market closes.
Tuesday (May 12th)
Keywords:Agent Tech and Impulse Pharma go dark, JD.com, Tencent Music, and OKLO earnings reports, US April CPI
In terms of economic data,The US April CPI will be released at 20:30 Beijing time.
In terms of financial events,At 15:15 Beijing time, Williams, the permanent voter of the FOMC and president of the New York Fed, will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy.
In terms of new stocks,At 16:15 Beijing time,$METIS TECHBIO-P (07666.HK)$、$IMPACT THERAP-B (07630.HK)$Dark trading begins on the eve of the Hong Kong stock listing.
In terms of performance,Hong Kong stocks$JD-SW (09618.HK)$、$TME-SW (01698.HK)$、$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$Earnings reports will be released; In the US stock market,$Tencent Music (TME.US)$、$JD.com (JD.US)$、$Venture Global (VG.US)$、$Sea (SE.US)$Will announce earnings before the US stock market opens;$Oklo Inc (OKLO.US)$Will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.
Wednesday (May 13th)
Keywords:Ji Tai Technology, Yingpai Pharmaceuticals go public; Tencent, Alibaba, NEBIUS, WeRide earnings reports, US April PPI
In terms of economic data,The US April PPI will be released at 20:30 Beijing time.
In terms of financial events,At 01:00 Beijing time, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A session hosted by the local chamber of commerce; at 23:30 Beijing time, 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will deliver a speech at the Boston Economic Club.
In terms of performance,Hong Kong stocks$TENCENT (00700.HK)$、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$、$WERIDE-W (00800.HK)$Announce earnings; US stocks$Alibaba (BABA.US)$、$WeRide (WRD.US)$、$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$、$Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT.US)$Earnings report to be released before the US stock market opens;$Cisco (CSCO.US)$ 、 $BitGo Holdings (BTGO.US)$ Earnings report to be released after the US stock market closes.
Thursday (May 14)
Keywords:Trump may visit China, SMIC & Huahong Semiconductor earnings reports, US April retail sales month-over-month rate, Cerebras listed on the US stock market
In terms of economic data,At 20:30 Beijing time, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9 and the US April retail sales month-over-month rate will be announced.
In terms of financial events,Trump may visit China from May 14 to 15; at 01:15 Beijing time, Kashkari, a voting member of the 2026 FOMC and president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, will participate in a discussion hosted by the local chamber of commerce; at 07:00 Beijing time, Logan, a voting member of the 2026 FOMC and president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, will participate in a dialogue on the energy industry.
In terms of performance,$SMIC (00981.HK)$、$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$、$ALI HEALTH (00241.HK)$、$CHINAGOLDINTL (02099.HK)$Companies set to release earnings reports; US stocks$Bullish (BLSH.US)$、$Ondas (ONDS.US)$、$Lithium Americas (LAC.US)$Will release earnings reports before the US stock market opens;$Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$、$Figma Inc (FIG.US)$、$Gemini Space Station (GEMI.US)$Earnings reports will be released after the US stock market closes.
Friday (May 15th)
Keywords:Leapmotor's earnings report, Yifai Technology's grey market
In terms of financial events,Powell’s term ends; at 01:00 Beijing time, 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Hammack will give the opening remarks at an online seminar on central bank independence; at 05:30, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech; at 05:45, permanent FOMC voter, New York Fed President Williams will participate in a discussion.
In terms of performance,Hong Kong stocks$LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$、$HWORLD-S (01179.HK)$Earnings reports will be announced;
For a new week, wish all fellow investors successful investments!
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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