May 7 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-2-Pop Mart, Genscript Biotech, Zijin Mining

1. Pop Mart (09992.HK): Investors ask if the share price can reach HKD 168. Some investors have taken profits on bull contracts.

Pop Mart’s current price is 162.200, up 3.77% today (May 7), showing improvement in the short-term rebound. Investors asking if the stock can reach 168 and some taking profits on bull contracts reflect that market sentiment isn’t unilaterally bullish; instead, profit-taking starts to emerge as the rebound approaches resistance levels.

Technically, Pop Mart’s current price is above the 10-day moving average at 156.880, the 20-day moving average at 157.900, and the 30-day moving average at 159.267, indicating that the stock has regained its key moving averages. The trend has shifted from sideways movement at lower levels to a rebound recovery. The middle Bollinger Band axis is at 157.900, the upper band at 165.973, and the lower band at 149.827. The current price is approaching the upper band, signaling increased short-term momentum but also entering a resistance zone.

168 is achievable, but it needs to break above 165.973 and stabilize. If the stock price can break through the upper Bollinger Band, 168 would be the first extension target, technically attainable; however, if it faces resistance near 166, reaching 168 might not be straightforward. The relative strength index is approximately 62.31, indicating strong but not overheated momentum, leaving room for further upside, though the risk-reward ratio for chasing higher isn't as attractive as it was at lower levels.

Investors taking profits on bull contracts is reasonable risk management since the current price is not far from the upper band, and the rebound is nearing short-term resistance. If Pop Mart fails to break above 166, it may retest the 159.267 to 157.900 range in the short term; if it falls below 157.900, the rebound structure will weaken.

Overall assessment: Pop Mart can aim for 168 in the short term, but only if it breaks above and stabilizes at 165.973. Before the breakout, the 166 to 168 range remains a resistance zone, and assuming an inevitable breakthrough is not advisable. It’s reasonable for investors holding bull contracts to take partial profits as they approach resistance. For those wanting to chase further upside, they should wait for a confirmed breakout above 166 before targeting space beyond 168.

2. Genscript Biotech (01548.HK): Investors mention a breakout with increased volume, asking where the next resistance level is. Other investors are watching call warrants with a strike price of HKD 17.51.

Genscript Biotech is currently trading at 15.480. Today (May 7), it rose by 7.43%, accompanied by significantly higher trading volume, providing technical support for what investors refer to as a 'breakout with high volume.' The stock price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 14.973 and hit a recent high of 15.570, indicating a clear short-term upward momentum.

Technically, the current price is now above the 10-day moving average at 13.901, the 20-day moving average at 13.652, and the 30-day moving average at 12.879. The alignment of these moving averages is beginning to improve, reflecting that the short-term rebound may be evolving into a breakout. The next resistance level to watch is 15.570; if the price can stabilize and break through this level, the next target will be around 16.086. Further up, the 52-week high at 19.400 could be monitored, though this isn’t an immediate target and would require more trading volume to support further gains.

However, the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 83.00, which indicates overbought conditions. This suggests strong momentum, but also increases the risks associated with chasing the stock. If the price fails to hold above 14.973, there could be a pullback after the breakout, likely testing the range between 14.134 and 13.901. As long as the price stays above 13.901, the short-term bullish structure remains intact.

Investors interested in call warrants with a strike price of 17.51 yuan are aiming to capitalize on the upward trend following the breakout. However, since this strike price is above the current price, it would be more appropriate to deploy this strategy only after the stock price confirms a breakthrough above 15.570. If the price merely oscillates near current highs, the value of these call warrants could be affected by time decay and volatility, making it unwise to chase them when the RSI is overheated.

Overall, Genscript’s short-term breakout appears valid, with the next resistance level at 15.570. A move above that could target 16.086. If the price can remain stable above 14.973, the uptrend may continue. However, if the price falls below 14.973, a false breakout leading to a pullback should be anticipated. Call warrants with a strike price of 17.51 yuan are better suited for aggressive plays after confirmation of the breakout, not for holding when prices weaken.

3. Zijin Mining (02899.HK): Investors ask if the price can break through the HKD 39-30 range above. Some investors hold bull contracts with a stop-loss price at HKD 32.

Zijin Mining is currently trading at 38.160, up 2.31% today (May 7), showing improvement in its short-term rebound. Investors are wondering if the price can break through the 39-40 yuan range, which is the key area to watch. Some investors holding bull certificates with a stop-loss at 32 yuan have a relatively comfortable buffer, though they should still be cautious about pullbacks if the breakout attempt fails.

Technically, Zijin's current price is above the 10-day moving average at 36.418, the 20-day moving average at 36.850, and the 30-day moving average at 36.177. The stock has moved back above its key moving averages, transitioning from a weak correction phase to a recovery bounce. The middle Bollinger Band is at 36.850, the upper band is at 38.594, and the lower band is at 35.106. The current price is approaching the upper band at 38.594, indicating that it has entered a resistance zone.

The ability to break through the 39-40 yuan range depends on whether the price can first surpass and stabilize above 38.594. If Zijin can break through the upper Bollinger Band, 39 yuan might be tested first. If trading volume continues to support the rally, the next challenge could be the 40-yuan mark. However, the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 68.37, nearing overbought territory, suggesting that while short-term rebound momentum is strong, the reward for chasing the stock is declining. If the price faces resistance between 38.6 and 39 yuan, a pullback towards the range between 36.850 and 36.418 is likely.

The safety margin for the bull certificates with a call price of 32 yuan is relatively sufficient, making them more suitable for holders to use 36.850 as a short-term observation level. As long as the stock price stays above 36.850, the rebound structure can be maintained; if it falls below 36.850, the trend will weaken again. At that time, even if the bull certificates do not immediately approach the call price, the volatility on the books will significantly increase.

Overall judgment suggests that Zijin Mining has the potential to challenge 39 yuan, but to truly break through 39 to 40 yuan, it needs to stabilize above 38.594 first. Before the breakthrough occurs, the 39 to 40 yuan range still acts as a resistance zone, and it's not advisable to prematurely assume an upward space has opened. Bulls may continue to use 36.850 as a watershed; after breaking through 38.594, look for 39 yuan, then aim for 40 yuan after another breakout.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met and should be used alongside other data for a comprehensive assessment of asset performance; trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s HK warrants for more professional insights. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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