[HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Kuaishou, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Pop Mart, Genscript Biotech, Zijin Mining - Post-market Analysis on May 7

：Investors who remain bullish on the index believe it will challenge 27,000 points, targeting bear certificates while continuing to hold bull certificates with a stop-loss level at 26,216 points. Bearish investors are deploying bear certificates with a stop-loss level at 27,000 points, expecting a weekly close below 26,300 points.

The current price of the Hang Seng Index (as of May 7) is 26,626.28. The short-term rebound structure remains strong, but it has now entered a range where divergence between bulls and bears is becoming more pronounced. Optimistic investors believe the index may challenge 27,000 points, or even pressure bearish warrants further, while continuing to hold bullish warrants with a stop-loss level at 26,216 points. Bearish investors, in contrast, are deploying bearish warrants with a stop-loss level at 27,000 points, believing that Friday’s close may drop to 26,300 points. These two perspectives are not purely based on emotional judgments but revolve around a key battleground: whether the range between 26,600 and 27,000 represents a pre-breakout stage or the tail end of a rebound.

Technically, the Hang Seng Index’s current price of 26,626.28 is above the 10-day moving average at 26,022.16, the 20-day moving average at 26,045.72, and the 30-day moving average at 25,711.58, indicating that the short-term moving average structure has strengthened. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 26,045.72, the lower band at 25,521.07, and the upper band at 26,570.38. The current price has risen above the upper band, reflecting strong short-term momentum. This suggests the rebound is no longer just a weak recovery but shows signs of upward expansion. However, breaking above the upper band also means that the short-term position is starting to look overbought, and if the distance isn't quickly widened, high-level fluctuations could easily occur.

Optimistic investors holding bullish warrants with a stop-loss level at 26,216 points have a position relatively close to the current price, providing a buffer of about 410 points below. The core assumption behind this strategy is that the Hang Seng Index can hold above 26,300 to 26,216 points, using the current momentum of breaking above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands to further challenge 27,000 points. From a technical perspective, this view has merit as the index has consecutively regained multiple short-term moving averages, and trading volume has also picked up, showing that capital isn’t completely sidelined. If the Hang Seng Index can stabilize above 26,570, the possibility of testing 27,000 points remains.

However, bearish investors deploying bearish warrants with a stop-loss level at 27,000 points aren’t entirely without justification. The 27,000-point level is near a previous resistance zone and a region where profit-taking often occurs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 68.17, nearing the overbought zone, suggesting diminishing returns for short-term chasing gains. If the Hang Seng Index approaches 27,000 but fails to break through, bearish warrant strategies would aim to capitalize on a potential pullback after an unsuccessful rebound. In particular, if the index falls back below 26,570, it would signal that the breakout above the Bollinger Bands’ upper band failed to sustain, potentially shifting the short-term trend from a strong breakout to high-level fluctuations.

The short-term watershed can be placed near 26,570. As long as the Hang Seng Index stays above 26,570 and 26,300, the bullish side still has the upper hand, and 27,000 remains a reasonable upside target; if it breaks below 26,300, especially near 26,216, it will not only threaten at-the-money bull contracts but also weaken the entire rebound structure. At that point, the bearish side’s prediction of a close below 26,300 will start to hold true.

At this stage, a more reasonable judgment is: the Hang Seng Index remains slightly strong in the short term, but blindly chasing highs is not advisable. Bullish positions need to hold above 26,300 to 26,216 as a risk line; if it can stabilize above 26,570, one can continue to target 27,000; bearish positions should wait for the index to face resistance near 27,000 or drop below 26,570, where the risk-reward ratio would be higher. This is not a position for one-sided directional bets, but rather a time to wait for market confirmation of whether it's a breakout rally or a false breakout retreat.

Kuaishou-W (01024.HK): Investors are asking if there are still many gaps above that could be filled, and whether it can reach 60 yuan. Some investors hold call warrants with an exercise price of 53.53 yuan.

Kuaishou’s current price is 48.400, surging 7.56% today (May 7), indicating a significant strengthening of the short-term rebound. Investors believe there are still multiple gaps above that could be filled, and are asking if there’s potential to reach 60 yuan. Some investors hold call warrants with an exercise price of 53.53 yuan. This view has some technical basis, but 60 yuan isn’t a one-step target—currently, stability between 48 and 50 yuan should first be confirmed.

Technically, Kuaishou has broken through the 10-day moving average at 44.222 and the 20-day moving average at 44.972, and has re-established itself above the 30-day moving average at 45.887, transitioning from a weak sideways trend to a sharp rebound. The upper Bollinger Band is at 47.935, and the current price of 48.400 has moved above the upper band, indicating that short-term momentum is being released. The noticeable increase in trading volume shows this rebound is not just a volume-less spike—market support has improved.

However, Kuaishou's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 76.04, entering overbought territory, meaning short-term buying risks are starting to rise. The share price has rebounded significantly from the low of 41.920 to 48.400, and if it fails to stabilize above 47.935, profit-taking could occur, likely testing the 45.887 to 44.972 range. This also means the call warrant with an exercise price of 53.53 yuan, while aligned with the rebound direction, requires further upward movement in the share price; otherwise, time decay and volatility pullback will impact positioning.

As for the 60-yuan target, it’s not entirely impossible based on the current trend, but confirmation will need to come in stages. The first hurdle is the psychological level of 50 yuan—if Kuaishou can stabilize above 50 yuan, it may then challenge the area near 54.086. Higher levels include the 58.141 to 62.195 range, which represents the true zone where investors expect the gaps to be filled and the challenge toward 60 yuan to take place. In other words, 60 yuan is a mid-term rebound target, not an immediate must-reach position from the current price.

The short-term watershed is at 47.935. If Kuaishou can stabilize above 47.935, the rebound may continue, initially targeting 50 yuan and then 54.086. If it breaks above 54.086 with strong trading volume, it can then aim for 58.141 to 60 yuan. Conversely, if it falls back below 47.935, it indicates failure to sustain above the upper Bollinger Band, and the short-term trend may consolidate around 45.887 and 44.972.

Overall assessment: Kuaishou’s current rebound is strengthening, but it is no longer at an attractive valuation from lower levels. Bulls can continue to use 47.935 as a short-term defense line; after breaking through 50, further upside potential above 54 can be expected; however, targeting 60 directly requires the share price to first stabilize above 50 and then break through 54 for confirmation. Call warrants with a strike price of 53.53 are more suitable for riding a breakout trend, but not advisable to stubbornly hold during a pullback from higher levels.

YOFC (06869.HK): Investors are asking if holding above the 5-day moving average could lead to a next target price of 245 yuan.

The current price of Yangtze Optical Fiber and Cable is 232.800, up 7.48% today (May 7th), with short-term rebound momentum clearly strengthening. Investors are asking whether if the stock holds above the 5-day moving average, the next target could be 245 yuan. This judgment has a technical basis, but the key is not just holding the 5-day line; it also needs to break through and stabilize in the resistance zone between 236 and 246 yuan.

Technically, Yangtze Optical Fiber and Cable's current price is above the 10-day moving average at 224.500, the 20-day moving average at 221.890, and the 30-day moving average at 208.877. The short-term moving average structure remains strong. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 221.890, the upper band at 246.204, and the lower band at 197.576. The current price is between the middle and upper bands, indicating there’s still room for upward testing in the rebound, though not yet entering a true breakout phase. The recent high was at 257.400, and if the stock can approach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands again, 245 yuan would indeed be a reasonable next observation target.

However, the current price of 232.800 still has about a 5% upside to reach 245 yuan, needing first to break above the nearby daily high around 236.000. If it fails to break above 236 yuan, the short-term move may only reflect a rebound from a low position or range correction rather than rechallenging higher levels. Trading volume has shown improvement today, reflecting better support, but it hasn’t been an extreme surge, so while 245 yuan can be targeted, the price needs to confirm a breakthrough above 236 yuan first.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 57.54, showing no overheating, and momentum still has room for improvement. This supports investors looking toward 245 yuan, as the stock isn’t in an obvious overbought zone, and if funds continue to flow in, there’s potential for further upward movement in the short term. What truly needs attention is the 10-day moving average at 224.500 and the 20-day moving average at 221.890; if the stock falls back but holds this area, the consolidation will remain strong. However, if it breaks below 221.890, the rebound structure will significantly weaken.

Overall assessment: If Longi Fiber Optic Cable holds steady in the 224.500 to 221.890 region, it can maintain short-term strength; if it breaks above 236.000, the next target could rise to between 245 and 246.204. A target of 245 is not overly ambitious, but a confirmed breakout is needed. If it merely holds above the 5-day moving average without surpassing 236, it should still be viewed as consolidation at higher levels, and it's premature to assume an inevitable upward move.

4. Pop Mart (09992.HK): Investors are asking if the stock price can reach 168 yuan. Some investors have taken profits on their bull certificates and exited the market.

Pop Mart’s current price is 162.200, up 3.77% today (May 7), showing improvement in the short-term rebound. Investors asking if the stock can reach 168 and some taking profits on bull contracts reflect that market sentiment isn’t unilaterally bullish; instead, profit-taking starts to emerge as the rebound approaches resistance levels.

Technically, Pop Mart’s current price is above the 10-day moving average at 156.880, the 20-day moving average at 157.900, and the 30-day moving average at 159.267, indicating that the stock has regained its key moving averages. The trend has shifted from sideways movement at lower levels to a rebound recovery. The middle Bollinger Band axis is at 157.900, the upper band at 165.973, and the lower band at 149.827. The current price is approaching the upper band, signaling increased short-term momentum but also entering a resistance zone.

168 is achievable, but it needs to break above 165.973 and stabilize. If the stock price can break through the upper Bollinger Band, 168 would be the first extension target, technically attainable; however, if it faces resistance near 166, reaching 168 might not be straightforward. The relative strength index is approximately 62.31, indicating strong but not overheated momentum, leaving room for further upside, though the risk-reward ratio for chasing higher isn't as attractive as it was at lower levels.

Investors taking profits on bull contracts is reasonable risk management since the current price is not far from the upper band, and the rebound is nearing short-term resistance. If Pop Mart fails to break above 166, it may retest the 159.267 to 157.900 range in the short term; if it falls below 157.900, the rebound structure will weaken.

Overall assessment: Pop Mart can aim for 168 in the short term, but only if it breaks above and stabilizes at 165.973. Before the breakout, the 166 to 168 range remains a resistance zone, and assuming an inevitable breakthrough is not advisable. It’s reasonable for investors holding bull contracts to take partial profits as they approach resistance. For those wanting to chase further upside, they should wait for a confirmed breakout above 166 before targeting space beyond 168.

5. Genscript Biotech (01548.HK): Investors mentioned an increase in trading volume and breakthrough performance, discussing where the next resistance level might be. Some investors are also focusing on call warrants with a strike price of 17.51 yuan.

Genscript Biotech is currently trading at 15.480. Today (May 7), it rose by 7.43%, accompanied by significantly higher trading volume, providing technical support for what investors refer to as a 'breakout with high volume.' The stock price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 14.973 and hit a recent high of 15.570, indicating a clear short-term upward momentum.

Technically, the current price is now above the 10-day moving average at 13.901, the 20-day moving average at 13.652, and the 30-day moving average at 12.879. The alignment of these moving averages is beginning to improve, reflecting that the short-term rebound may be evolving into a breakout. The next resistance level to watch is 15.570; if the price can stabilize and break through this level, the next target will be around 16.086. Further up, the 52-week high at 19.400 could be monitored, though this isn’t an immediate target and would require more trading volume to support further gains.

However, the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 83.00, which indicates overbought conditions. This suggests strong momentum, but also increases the risks associated with chasing the stock. If the price fails to hold above 14.973, there could be a pullback after the breakout, likely testing the range between 14.134 and 13.901. As long as the price stays above 13.901, the short-term bullish structure remains intact.

Investors interested in call warrants with a strike price of 17.51 yuan are aiming to capitalize on the upward trend following the breakout. However, since this strike price is above the current price, it would be more appropriate to deploy this strategy only after the stock price confirms a breakthrough above 15.570. If the price merely oscillates near current highs, the value of these call warrants could be affected by time decay and volatility, making it unwise to chase them when the RSI is overheated.

Overall, Genscript’s short-term breakout appears valid, with the next resistance level at 15.570. A move above that could target 16.086. If the price can remain stable above 14.973, the uptrend may continue. However, if the price falls below 14.973, a false breakout leading to a pullback should be anticipated. Call warrants with a strike price of 17.51 yuan are better suited for aggressive plays after confirmation of the breakout, not for holding when prices weaken.

6. Zijin Mining (02899.HK): Investors are asking if the stock can break through the 39-30 yuan range. Some investors hold bull certificates with a stop-loss level at 32 yuan.

Zijin Mining is currently trading at 38.160, up 2.31% today (May 7), showing improvement in its short-term rebound. Investors are wondering if the price can break through the 39-40 yuan range, which is the key area to watch. Some investors holding bull certificates with a stop-loss at 32 yuan have a relatively comfortable buffer, though they should still be cautious about pullbacks if the breakout attempt fails.

Technically, Zijin's current price is above the 10-day moving average at 36.418, the 20-day moving average at 36.850, and the 30-day moving average at 36.177. The stock has moved back above its key moving averages, transitioning from a weak correction phase to a recovery bounce. The middle Bollinger Band is at 36.850, the upper band is at 38.594, and the lower band is at 35.106. The current price is approaching the upper band at 38.594, indicating that it has entered a resistance zone.

The ability to break through the 39-40 yuan range depends on whether the price can first surpass and stabilize above 38.594. If Zijin can break through the upper Bollinger Band, 39 yuan might be tested first. If trading volume continues to support the rally, the next challenge could be the 40-yuan mark. However, the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 68.37, nearing overbought territory, suggesting that while short-term rebound momentum is strong, the reward for chasing the stock is declining. If the price faces resistance between 38.6 and 39 yuan, a pullback towards the range between 36.850 and 36.418 is likely.

The safety margin for the bull certificates with a call price of 32 yuan is relatively sufficient, making them more suitable for holders to use 36.850 as a short-term observation level. As long as the stock price stays above 36.850, the rebound structure can be maintained; if it falls below 36.850, the trend will weaken again. At that time, even if the bull certificates do not immediately approach the call price, the volatility on the books will significantly increase.

Overall judgment suggests that Zijin Mining has the potential to challenge 39 yuan, but to truly break through 39 to 40 yuan, it needs to stabilize above 38.594 first. Before the breakthrough occurs, the 39 to 40 yuan range still acts as a resistance zone, and it's not advisable to prematurely assume an upward space has opened. Bulls may continue to use 36.850 as a watershed; after breaking through 38.594, look for 39 yuan, then aim for 40 yuan after another breakout.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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