May 7th [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Kuaishou, Changfei Fiber Optic Cable,

1. Hang Seng Index: Investors who continue to be bullish on the index believe it will challenge 27,000 points, targeting bearish warrants while continuing to hold bullish warrants with a stop-loss at 26,216 points. Bearish investors are deploying bearish warrants with a stop-loss at 27,000 points, expecting Friday's close to be around 26,300 points.

The current price of the Hang Seng Index (May 7) is 26,626.28. The short-term rebound structure remains strong, but it has entered a position where market divergence is becoming more apparent. Bullish investors believe the index may challenge 27,000 points, even targeting bearish warrants, and continue to hold bullish warrants with a stop-loss at 26,216 points; bearish investors are deploying bearish warrants with a stop-loss at 27,000 points, expecting Friday’s close to be around 26,300 points. These two perspectives are not purely emotional judgments but revolve around the same key range: whether the area between 26,600 and 27,000 represents a pre-breakout or the tail end of a rebound.

Technically, the Hang Seng Index’s current price is 26,626.28, which is already above the 10-day moving average at 26,022.16, the 20-day moving average at 26,045.72, and the 30-day moving average at 25,711.58. The short-term moving average structure has turned bullish. The middle Bollinger Band is at 26,045.72, the lower band at 25,521.07, and the upper band at 26,570.38. The current price has broken through the upper band, indicating strong short-term momentum. The rebound is no longer just a weak recovery but shows signs of upward expansion. However, breaking through the upper band also indicates that the short-term position has become relatively high, and if it cannot quickly widen the gap, it could easily experience high-level fluctuations.

Bullish investors holding bullish warrants with a stop-loss at 26,216 points have positions relatively close to the current price, with a downside buffer of about 410 points. The core assumption of this strategy is that the Hang Seng Index can hold above 26,300 to 26,216 points and use the momentum of breaking through the upper Bollinger Band to further challenge 27,000 points. Technically, this view has merit as the index has consecutively reclaimed multiple short-term moving averages, and trading volume has picked up, reflecting that funds are not entirely on the sidelines. If the Hang Seng Index can stabilize above 26,570, there is still a chance for it to test 27,000 next.

However, bearish investors deploying bearish warrants with a stop-loss at 27,000 points are not without reason. The 27,000 level is near the previous dense rebound zone and a point where profit-taking often occurs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 68.17, nearing the overbought zone, indicating diminishing short-term upside potential. If the Hang Seng Index approaches 27,000 but fails to break through, the bearish warrant strategy would aim for a pullback after the rally stalls. Particularly, if the index falls back below 26,570, it would mean the breakout above the upper Bollinger Band failed to sustain, and the short-term trend might shift from a strong breakout back into high-level fluctuations.

The short-term watershed can be placed around 26,570. As long as the Hang Seng Index stays above 26,570 and 26,300, the bullish side still has the advantage, and 27,000 remains a reasonable upside target; if it breaks below 26,300, especially near 26,216, it would not only threaten at-the-money bull contracts but also weaken the entire rebound structure. At that point, the bearish argument for a low close at 26,300 will start to hold.

A more reasonable judgment at this stage is: the Hang Seng Index remains slightly bullish in the short term, but blindly chasing higher levels is not advisable. The bullish setup needs to treat holding above 26,300 to 26,216 as the risk line; if it stabilizes above 26,570, we can continue to look towards 27,000; the bearish setup requires waiting for the index to face resistance near 27,000 or drop back below 26,570 before having a higher probability of success. This is not a position for one-sided directional bets but rather a time to wait for the market to confirm whether it's a breakout upwards or a false breakout pulling back. $BI-HSI @EC2608A.C (26493.HK)$$BI#HSI RC2809Y.C (68525.HK)$$UB#HSI RP28023.P (61223.HK)$$BI#HSI RP2803Q.P (55030.HK)$

Kuaishou-W (01024.HK): Investors are asking if there are still many gaps above that could be filled, and whether it can reach 60 yuan. Some investors hold call warrants with an exercise price of 53.53 yuan.

Kuaishou’s current price is 48.400, surging 7.56% today (May 7), indicating a significant strengthening of the short-term rebound. Investors believe there are still multiple gaps above that could be filled, and are asking if there’s potential to reach 60 yuan. Some investors hold call warrants with an exercise price of 53.53 yuan. This view has some technical basis, but 60 yuan isn’t a one-step target—currently, stability between 48 and 50 yuan should first be confirmed.

Technically, Kuaishou has broken through the 10-day moving average at 44.222 and the 20-day moving average at 44.972, and has re-established itself above the 30-day moving average at 45.887, transitioning from a weak sideways trend to a sharp rebound. The upper Bollinger Band is at 47.935, and the current price of 48.400 has moved above the upper band, indicating that short-term momentum is being released. The noticeable increase in trading volume shows this rebound is not just a volume-less spike—market support has improved.

However, Kuaishou's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 76.04, entering overbought territory, meaning short-term buying risks are starting to rise. The share price has rebounded significantly from the low of 41.920 to 48.400, and if it fails to stabilize above 47.935, profit-taking could occur, likely testing the 45.887 to 44.972 range. This also means the call warrant with an exercise price of 53.53 yuan, while aligned with the rebound direction, requires further upward movement in the share price; otherwise, time decay and volatility pullback will impact positioning.

As for the 60-yuan target, it’s not entirely impossible based on the current trend, but confirmation will need to come in stages. The first hurdle is the psychological level of 50 yuan—if Kuaishou can stabilize above 50 yuan, it may then challenge the area near 54.086. Higher levels include the 58.141 to 62.195 range, which represents the true zone where investors expect the gaps to be filled and the challenge toward 60 yuan to take place. In other words, 60 yuan is a mid-term rebound target, not an immediate must-reach position from the current price.

The short-term watershed is at 47.935. If Kuaishou can stabilize above 47.935, the rebound may continue, initially targeting 50 yuan and then 54.086. If it breaks above 54.086 with strong trading volume, it can then aim for 58.141 to 60 yuan. Conversely, if it falls back below 47.935, it indicates failure to sustain above the upper Bollinger Band, and the short-term trend may consolidate around 45.887 and 44.972.

Overall, Kuaishou’s rebound has strengthened, but it’s no longer at a value-for-money position from the lows. Bulls can continue using 47.935 as a short-term defensive line, and after breaking through 50 yuan, look for further upside above 54 yuan. However, aiming directly for 60 yuan requires the stock price to first stabilize above 50 yuan and then break through 54 yuan as confirmation. Call warrants with an exercise price of 53.53 yuan suit following a breakout trend but aren’t ideal for holding during a pullback from higher levels. $HSKUASO@EC2702A.C (27738.HK)$$UBKUASO@EC2702A.C (27777.HK)$$HS#KUASORC2701A.C (68901.HK)$$SG#KUASORP28123.P (68372.HK)$

YOFC (06869.HK): Investors are asking if holding above the 5-day moving average could lead to a next target price of 245 yuan.

The current price of Yangtze Optical Fiber and Cable is 232.800, up 7.48% today (May 7th), with short-term rebound momentum clearly strengthening. Investors are asking whether if the stock holds above the 5-day moving average, the next target could be 245 yuan. This judgment has a technical basis, but the key is not just holding the 5-day line; it also needs to break through and stabilize in the resistance zone between 236 and 246 yuan.

Technically, Yangtze Optical Fiber and Cable's current price is above the 10-day moving average at 224.500, the 20-day moving average at 221.890, and the 30-day moving average at 208.877. The short-term moving average structure remains strong. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 221.890, the upper band at 246.204, and the lower band at 197.576. The current price is between the middle and upper bands, indicating there’s still room for upward testing in the rebound, though not yet entering a true breakout phase. The recent high was at 257.400, and if the stock can approach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands again, 245 yuan would indeed be a reasonable next observation target.

However, the current price of 232.800 still has about a 5% upside to reach 245 yuan, needing first to break above the nearby daily high around 236.000. If it fails to break above 236 yuan, the short-term move may only reflect a rebound from a low position or range correction rather than rechallenging higher levels. Trading volume has shown improvement today, reflecting better support, but it hasn’t been an extreme surge, so while 245 yuan can be targeted, the price needs to confirm a breakthrough above 236 yuan first.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 57.54, showing no overheating, and momentum still has room for improvement. This supports investors looking toward 245 yuan, as the stock isn’t in an obvious overbought zone, and if funds continue to flow in, there’s potential for further upward movement in the short term. What truly needs attention is the 10-day moving average at 224.500 and the 20-day moving average at 221.890; if the stock falls back but holds this area, the consolidation will remain strong. However, if it breaks below 221.890, the rebound structure will significantly weaken.

Overall, if Yangtze Optical Fiber and Cable holds steady in the region between 224.500 and 221.890, the short-term outlook can remain bullish. If it breaks above 236.000, the next target could be between 245 and 246.204. A target of 245 yuan is not overly ambitious, but confirmation of a breakout is necessary. If the stock merely holds above the 5-day moving average without breaking above 236 yuan, it should still be regarded as consolidation at higher levels, and one shouldn't assume an inevitable upward push too early. $SG-YOFC@EC2703A.C (28304.HK)$$HU-YOFC@EC2704A.C (28170.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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