Bull Technical Intelligence Bureau | Neocloud's three giants have surged 100% cumulatively from the end of March! Comprehensive analysis of triple resonance signals from moving averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands

Following a significant easing of tensions between the US and Iran, the US stock market quickly rebounded and continued to hit new highs. During this period, the three giants in the artificial intelligence cloud services (Neocloud) sector $NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ 、 $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ and $IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ have all performed remarkably well -Their cumulative share price increase from the end of March has reached 100%!From a technical perspective, core indicators such as moving averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands have resonated, with the share prices of all three companies in clear upward channels. However, the rapid rise in prices in the short term also comes with varying degrees of 'overheating' risk.

NBIS (Nebius Group)

Looking at the recent price trajectory, Nebius is in a pure accelerated uptrend channel. Referring to the closing price of $195.09 on May 6, it recently completed a typical 'V-shaped rebound followed by an accelerated rise' structure. After a brief consolidation at the bottom, there were gap-up rises for two consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of over 40% in the range.

Currently, this price has significantly surpassed the MA20 moving average ($156.25) and the MA50 moving average ($126.57), and the distance between them is continuously widening,This indicates that the bullish consensus in the short and medium term is not only highly consistent but also accelerating.

Based on the above trend, the market’s bullish-bearish battle will unfold around several clear numerical nodes:

The first line of defense for the downside support level is located at $185.44.This position was originally the upper rail of the Bollinger Bands, but after a strong breakout, it has transformed into a dynamic support level;The second line of defense is at $176.42,which is the retest confirmation point after the previous high was broken. Holding this level means the uptrend remains intact;The third line of defense is the 20-day moving average at $156.25,which is the final bottom line for the mid-term trend.

The resistance level (pressure point) above is the nearest psychological round-number barrier at $200.00;and the current recent high of $195.09 itself will become a top reference point in the short term if a pullback occurs.

From a more detailed technical indicator perspective, multiple data points have issued strong bullish signals, but also come with overheating warnings. The current price ($195.09) has broken through the upper limit of the normal Bollinger Bands fluctuation range ($185.44).At this time, the width of the Bollinger Bands has reached 58.38, indicating a significant expansion. This suggests that market volatility has sharply increased, and this is most likely driven by sufficient momentum indicating a substantive trend breakout rather than a false overbought reversal.The MACD indicator, which measures buying and selling power, shows a golden cross (where the value of 13 is higher than the signal line of 10.5), however, the gauge measuring market heatThe RSI indicator has reached 74.18, surpassing the conventional warning line of 70 and entering the 'overheated' zone.

Although bullish forces are overwhelmingly dominant, it is still necessary to be vigilant about four potential risks:

1. If prices continue to reach new highs in the future but the RSI fails to simultaneously hit a new high (i.e., forming a top divergence), the probability of a downward correction will significantly increase.

2. The current price is approximately 24.9% above the 20-day moving average and around 54.1% above the 50-day moving average. Historically, such extreme deviations typically trigger profit-taking, driving prices back towards the moving averages, with the first pullback target directly at $185.44.

3. The longer the price stays outside the upper limit of the trading range, the higher the probability of a retreat into the range.

4. A rapid 44% surge within ten days has accumulated substantial profit positions. If subsequent trading volume does not sustainably expand, upward momentum could easily dry up.

CRWV (CoreWeave)

CoreWeave will release its Q1 2026 earnings report after the US stock market closes today. Wall Street analysts currently have very high expectations, forecasting revenue for this quarter to reach approximately $1.97 billion, translating to a year-over-year growth rate exceeding 100%.

However, even before the earnings announcement, the equity spot market seems to have already placed its bets. As of May 6, CoreWeave closed at $137.98. Its recent closing price series overall exhibits a structure of volatile upward movement.Currently, both the long-term and short-term cost lines of CRWV maintain a favorable upward trend (the 20-day moving average at $115.65 and the 50-day moving average at $94.85). The price is significantly above both lines, and the distance between the moving averages is widening.

The first line of defense (support level) below is at $134.50.This is also the key verification zone to watch if CoreWeave experiences a short-term pullback after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band.The second line of defense is at $125.43.This represents the previous high point of the consolidation platform, which has shifted from resistance to support. A breach here would open up significant downside correction potential.The third line of defense is the 20-day moving average at $115.65. The psychological resistance level closest to the current price above is the $140.00 round-number mark.

In terms of momentum data, buyers remain in control. The current share price of $137.98 has broken through the expanding upper limit of the Bollinger Band ($134.50), with the channel width reaching 37.7, indicating a significant increase in volatility. The MACD has formed a golden cross pattern, and the positive histogram continues to expand above the zero axis.This suggests that upward momentum remains intact in the short term. However, the RSI indicator has reached 74.18, surpassing the conventional warning threshold of 70, warranting caution against a potential short-term price pullback.

Regarding today's and future movements, three major risks cannot be ignored:

1. The high RSI indicates a possible mean reversion adjustment at any time; if this value subsequently breaks above 80 while the stock price increase lags, forming a top divergence, short-term pullback pressure will significantly rise.

2. The current price has deviated from the central region of normal fluctuations (i.e., approximately $116.6 for the Bollinger Bands middle line) by more than $21. Once there is a high-level stagnation candlestick pattern, the risk of a correction toward the central region will be extremely high.

3. Lastly, the nearly 30% surge within ten days is too rapid. If today’s earnings report fails to trigger higher trading volumes to follow through, the likelihood of a sharp drop in share price due to momentum decay will increase.

IREN (IREN Ltd)

In March 2026, Iren announced a procurement agreement worth up to $35 billion with a subsidiary of Dell, reflecting expectations of transformation in its stock price. On May 6, IREN's stock closed at $60.98. Its candlestick chart recently displayed an extremely rare unilateral straight-line upward structure, with the stock price surging continuously. Notably, during this period, there was not even a single significant daily pullback, fully exposing the highly concentrated buying power.

Currently, its20-day moving average ($47.42) and 50-day moving average ($42.66) form a neat bullish alignment, with the upward slope of the short-term moving averages accelerating.The current stock price exceeds these two moving averages by as much as $13 to $18.

The first reference level for the downside defense line (support level) is $57.55,which represents the upper limit of the fluctuation range it strongly broke through (upper Bollinger Band).The second reference level is $54.74, a key recent closing high. A break below this level would expand the downside space.The third reference level is the core support at the 20-day moving average of $47.42. Meanwhile, the round number level of $61.00 serves as the most immediate psychological resistance above.

In terms of indicators, IREN also exhibits the same explosive momentum and extreme overbought conditions as NEBIUS and CoreWeave. The current price ($60.98) has not only surpassed the upper Bollinger Band limit ($57.55), but the excess amount reaches $3.43 (5.95% higher). At this time, the channel width is 20.25, indicating an expansion state, confirming that the market is in a strong breakout pattern. The MACD value is 3.12, significantly higher than the signal line at 2.08, with the histogram area expanding above the zero axis, reflecting a very healthy mid-to-short-term upward cycle. However, at the same time, the RSI indicator stands at 71.30, firmly in the overbought zone, warranting caution for short-term pullback risks.

IREN's biggest risk currently stems precisely from its unchecked one-sided surge:

1. IREN is the company with the most severe deviation from the moving average among the three - the current price is 28.6% higher than the 20-day moving average. Historically, such significant deviations have always been followed by powerful mean reversion forces. If there is insufficient new capital inflow to support further gains, the probability of an overbought correction is extremely high.

2. As the price is already outside the historical statistical range, there are no substantial technical resistance levels above. Once momentum naturally weakens, the likelihood of price retracing or even breaking below $57.55 will significantly increase.

255K Views