Kuaishou needs to break through 46.07 to confirm a turnaround

Kuaishou-W is currently priced at 48.6, with short-term trends showing some improvement compared to earlier, but it still cannot be considered a true strengthening. The stock price is above the Bollinger Band midline of 44.887 and the 10-day line at 43.916, indicating initial support for the rebound from the lows; however, it is also above the 30-day line at 46.067 and the upper Bollinger Band at 47.532. At this stage, the most accurate assessment is that Kuaishou is transitioning from weakness to recovery, but has not yet entered a strong breakout.

In terms of trading volume, the latest trading bar shows an increase in volume compared to the previous day, coinciding with the rise in stock price, which is a positive signal. It reflects that the market is not completely without follow-through, and there are signs of short-term capital re-engaging. However, at this stage, the trading volume only supports the rebound and is not yet sufficient to confirm a breakout. To truly determine whether Kuaishou is strengthening, we still need to see if the stock price can break through 46.067 and push further towards 47.532.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 56.856, which is neutral-leaning strong, indicating that momentum has improved but has not reached the strong zone. This kind of position can easily give investors the illusion of a 'bottom,' as the stock price has just recovered and trading volume has also improved, but as long as the stock does not break through the upper moving averages and the upper Bollinger Band, it remains only a recovery, not a full trend reversal.

Among investors' comments, bullish voices focus on 'bottoming out,' 'rising again,' 'internet stocks being oversold,' and 'set for a breakout.' This reflects the market beginning to look for recovery opportunities in internet stocks. This thinking has some basis as Kuaishou has already rebounded above 44.887, showing short-term improvement. However, the issue is that the current technical signals only support an 'initial rebound improvement' and are not enough to confirm a 'breakout.' To confirm a breakout, it needs to first break through 46.067 and then challenge 47.532.

Bearish comments clearly reflect disappointment, such as 'it's over,' 'there won't be any surprises,' and 'another pullback.' These comments indicate that Kuaishou’s previous rebounds have repeatedly failed to sustain, leading to a lack of investor confidence. This skepticism is understandable since the stock price remains below the 30-day moving average, unable to escape the volatile pattern. However, judging it as 'over' at this stage might not be reasonable because the stock is still holding above 44.887, and trading volume supports the rebound; there is no sign of renewed weakness in the short term.

The wait-and-see comments are closest to the current situation. 'Is it stable?' is precisely Kuaishou’s biggest issue right now. The answer is: initially stable, but not yet confirmed as strengthening. If it holds above 44.887, it can be seen as a short-term rebound continuing; breaking through 46.067 would indicate further structural improvement; surpassing 47.532 would lead to a notably more optimistic market view on Kuaishou. Comments like 'the market is too bad' or 'I can’t imagine' reflect persistently low investor confidence, which limits buying momentum and means Kuaishou needs a clearer breakout to reverse sentiment.

Kuaishou-W (01024) Key Deployment: Current price of 45.000 is slightly above the 44.887 watershed; if it holds steady, initially target 46.067 and 47.532; if it breaks above 46.067, the rebound structure improves further, but if it falls below 44.887, watch out for a retest of 43.916 and 42.242.

Strategy One | After holding above 44.887, test 46.067 in the short term

27750 | Strike Price 46.88 | Actual Leverage 4.6x | Strike price near the first resistance level, suitable for capturing short-term rebounds after the stock price stabilizes above the watershed, but note that there will likely be resistance around 46.067.

29806 | Strike Price 48.93 | Actual Leverage 8.1x | Higher leverage, suitable when rebound trading continues to cooperate, more suited for short-term plays, not recommended to hold stubbornly if the stock price falls.

27772 | Strike Price 50.88 | Actual Leverage 4.2x | More suitable for those optimistic about a sustained rebound but wanting to avoid overly tight pricing; if the stock price stabilizes above 45, it can be an option for medium-term upward potential.

$CIKUASO@EC2609A.C (27750.HK)$$BIKUASO@EC2607A.C (29806.HK)$$UBKUASO@EC2611B.C (27772.HK)$

Strategy Two | After breaking through 46.067, target 47.532

27056 | Strike price 48.88 | Actual leverage 6.6x | Strike price close to above 47.532, suitable for chasing rebounds after breaking through 46.067; higher elasticity but requires confirmation of the breakout.

28048 | Strike price 50.04 | Actual leverage 4.6x | Strike price slightly above short-term resistance zone, suitable for stable trend-following after the breakout; not the most aggressive choice, better suited for targeting 47.532 to around 50.

27772 | Strike price 50.88 | Actual leverage 4.2x | Moderate leverage, suitable for trend-following strategies with a longer holding period after the breakout, focusing more on trend continuation rather than intraday spikes.

$MBKUASO@EC2607A.C (27056.HK)$$HSKUASO@EC2610B.C (28048.HK)$$UBKUASO@EC2611B.C (27772.HK)$

Strategy Three | After breaking below 44.887, guard against retracement to 43.916 and 42.242

28110 | Strike price 32.50 | Actual leverage 4.4x | Out-of-the-money put, suitable for downside protection after breaking below the threshold, primarily capturing extended weakness; not suitable for use while the stock price remains above 44.887.

28296 | Strike price 32.48 | Actual leverage 4.4x | Also a downside hedge, suitable for use after confirming a breakdown; similar leverage and strike price, inclined towards short-term defensive counterattacks.

28376 | Strike price 32.48 | Actual leverage 4.2x | Slightly lower leverage, suitable for investors seeking a milder downside hedge, mainly used to guard against a drop below 44.887 and potential retracements to 43.916 and 42.242.

$CIKUASO@EP2610A.P (28110.HK)$$HUKUASO@EP2610A.P (28296.HK)$$UBKUASO@EP2610A.P (28376.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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