Pop Mart has fallen back below the 157 level. The long-term narrative remains intact, but short-term momentum has weakened.

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The current price is 155.8, and the short-term structure has not yet improved. The stock price is below the Bollinger Bands middle axis at 157.420 and the 10-day line at 156.680, indicating that it has not been able to regain its key defensive levels in the short term; although it is still above the Bollinger Bands lower rail at 149.285, which means it hasn’t truly broken down yet, the current trend can only be considered as consolidation at a low level rather than regaining strength.

At this stage, the most important level is 157.420. As long as the stock price cannot break back above this watershed, the short-term risk-reward ratio remains low. If it can reclaim 157.420, the next targets will be 160.847 and 165.555; if it continues to stay below 157.420, the stock will remain under pressure, with the first key support being 149.285. Once it breaks below 149.285, the trend will weaken further, and 140.100 will become the next defensive position. In terms of trading volume, short-term liquidity remains moderate, with some capital possibly shifting from high-valuation consumer stocks to other strong sectors.

Among investor comments, bullish views mainly focus on long-term valuation, a recovery in consumer spending, mall foot traffic, and an upside target of 200. These perspectives are based on fundamental and mid-to-long-term logic, which cannot be entirely dismissed. If consumer sentiment rebounds and Pop Mart maintains its brand popularity, there is still room for long-term valuation upside. However, short-term trading shouldn’t rely solely on narratives since the stock has yet to reclaim 157.420, and momentum remains weak. A target of 200 could be a distant sentiment-driven goal, but the stock must first recover 160.847 and 165.555 to have the conditions for a renewed upward move.

Bearish comments mainly focus on short-covering, capital flowing into semiconductors, and valuation concerns. These views align relatively well with the current trend. When market funds favor stronger sectors like semiconductors, stocks like Pop Mart, which were previously strong consumer plays, are prone to capital outflows. Coupled with the stock's high-volume decline, there is indeed a need to guard against consolidation turning into weakness in the short term. However, bearishness should not excessively chase lows, as the 149.285 level has not been breached yet; falling below that would indicate a clearer sign of weakening.

In the comments, 155 is a critical level. The current price at 156 is already near 155, and if the market cannot establish support around this area, the likelihood of testing 149.285 increases. 'Switching at 155' also reflects that some investors are considering reallocating their funds, which is unfavorable for short-term sentiment. When holders stop discussing adding to their positions and start talking about switching stocks, it indicates confidence is beginning to waver.

Overall, Pop Mart’s long-term story isn’t completely broken, but its short-term technicals and capital momentum are weak. The clearest trading framework is: only by reclaiming 157.420 can it have a chance to recover; breaking above 160.847 would make the rebound more substantial; if it falls below 149.285, one must be wary of weakness extending to 140.100. Those without positions should avoid rushing to buy the dip before strength returns; those holding the stock should treat 149.285 as an important line of defense and avoid being overly optimistic until 157.420 is reclaimed.

Pop Mart's biggest contradiction now is that fundamental supporters still believe in the brand and consumer story, but the short-term price action no longer supports it. The market may believe in the long term, but trading must respect key levels. Before 157.420 is reclaimed, rebounds are merely hopeful; once 149.285 is breached, risks become much more tangible.

Key focus: Current price below the 157.420 watershed; reclaiming 157.420 would open up targets of 160.847 and 165.555. If it fails to reclaim this level, the short-term outlook remains consolidation, but breaking below 149.285 would raise the risk of testing 140.100.

Strategy 1 | After reclaiming 157.420, look for targets at 160.847 and 165.555

$UBPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27929.HK)$ | Strike price 180.10 | Actual leverage 1.8x | Lower leverage, suitable for conservative positioning early in a rebound; the focus isn’t on chasing explosive moves but waiting for the stock to stabilize before following the upward move.

$CTPOMRT@EC2609D.C (28018.HK)$ | Strike price 186.78 | Actual leverage 5.3x | Higher flexibility, suitable for chasing short-term rebounds after reclaiming the watershed, though it requires sufficient trading volume to be effective.

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike price 186.88 | Actual leverage 4.4x | Positioned between conservative and aggressive, suitable for those optimistic about a continued rebound but not wanting to use maximum leverage.

Strategy Two | Follow the rebound extension after breaking through 165.555

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike price 186.88 | Actual leverage 4.4x | Suitable to follow after breaking through 165.555; strike price is not too far away, making it better for capturing the second phase of the rebound.

$HUPOMRT@EC2609B.C (28008.HK)$ | Strike price 190.02 | Actual leverage 5.6x | Higher leverage, ideal for chasing short-term momentum after confirmation of strength; key is to avoid premature deployment.

$BIPOMRT@EC2609A.C (28132.HK)$ | Strike price 202.20 | Actual leverage 5.8x | Higher strike price, suitable for those bullish on an extended upward movement post-breakthrough; a more aggressive trend-following choice.

Strategy Three | Guard against downside testing 140.100 after breaking below 149.285

$UBPOMRT@EP2607B.P (23059.HK)$ | Strike price 169.892 | Actual leverage 3.6x | Put option near current price, suitable for downside protection after breaking below 149.285; reacts directly.

$MBPOMRT@EP2610A.P (28320.HK)$ | Strike price 143.888 | Actual leverage 2.8x | Strike price close to 140.100 support zone, suitable for bearish outlook extending towards lower support; focuses more on direction than high leverage.

$UBPOMRT@EP2610A.P (28116.HK)$ | Strike price 138.88 | Actual leverage 3.1x | Suitable for defending against further weakness after breaking below 140.100; deeper downside positioning.

Reply to some investors' views:

@迷路的狮子Long-term valuation can be discussed, but the short-term trend hasn't returned above 157.420, and no signs of strengthening are visible yet.

@26783606There is a technical basis for a rebound, but it's better to wait for confirmation below 149.285; otherwise, there is still a risk of further upward movement.

@234318152The 155 level is a short-term sentiment point, but the real support lies at 149.285; breaking below this would indicate deeper weakness.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met, and asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated in conjunction with other information. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$

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