Meituan's rebound is weak; investors are watching to see if it can hold steady at 84.77 yuan

Meituan is trading at 82.7 yuan, down 1.02%. Judging from investor comments, market sentiment towards Meituan is quite bleak, even weaker than the stock price itself. The most common sentiment is not simply bearishness, but disappointment, fatigue, and distrust. Many investors have stopped discussing whether Meituan can quickly rebound and are instead questioning whether it has become an 'old internet stock that doesn't rise but falls,' whether it has been abandoned by capital, and whether every rebound is just a chance for profit-taking.

This sentiment is important because Meituan’s biggest issue now is not the lack of a story, but that the market is no longer willing to prepay for that story.

One noticeable type of comment reflects deep disappointment. Some compare Meituan with U.S. semiconductor and memory stocks, believing that while international markets continue to hit new highs, investors prefer to chase stocks like Western Digital, Micron, and Intel rather than stay invested in Chinese internet stocks. Others say that Chinese internet stocks have turned into 'old stocks that don’t rise but fall,' reflecting declining confidence in the entire sector, with Meituan serving as one outlet for this sentiment.

This disappointment hasn't formed in just a day or two but has accumulated from repeated failed rebounds. Some ask when it will return to 100 yuan, some say they’ve already waited a year, while others have gradually lowered their expectations from 150, 120, and 100 to the current 80-yuan level. These comments reflect a reality: Meituan’s trapped positions are significant, and every rebound faces selling pressure because many investors no longer aim to make profits but are waiting for a better position to reduce their holdings.

Another type of comment takes on a more trading-oriented tone, suggesting that every rise in Meituan is an opportunity to short. Some say, 'Every time it rises, I short it,' while others think it’s easier to make money by shorting after a one-day rise. There are also those who describe Meituan's movements as 'one-day wonders,' 'death throes,' or 'pump and dump.' These voices indicate that the market has developed an ingrained belief: Meituan's rebounds aren't reliable, and the higher it goes, the more you should sell.

This entrenched belief does hold some reference value, but it may also become a source of misjudgment. When a stock remains weak over the long term, the market tends to view every rebound as a false rally. However, if the price fails to drop further near key support levels, a short-term recovery could occur. The question isn’t whether Meituan will necessarily rebound, but rather that we can't simply use past weakness to conclude that every rebound will inevitably fail.

The third type of comment reflects a low-absorption strategy. Some believe 83 yuan is cheap, others say 70 yuan is even better, some are preparing to buy at 80 yuan, and still others feel that the worst is over, expecting the bottom to stabilize with oscillations leading to recovery. These investors aren’t aggressively chasing highs; instead, they prefer to wait patiently at lower levels. This indicates that although sentiment around Meituan is poor, there’s still some buying interest at the lower end, though this group prefers accumulating at lower prices rather than actively chasing gains.

This perfectly explains Meituan’s current technical state.

Meituan is currently trading at 82.7 yuan, below the Bollinger Bands middle line of 84.770, but close to the 10-day moving average of 83.280 and the 30-day moving average of 84.083. This is not a clear sign of strengthening, but neither is it a complete breakdown. More accurately, Meituan is currently in a consolidation phase after a rebound, with its price oscillating between 83.280 and 84.770.

The biggest misjudgment in the market right now is equating low trading volume directly with 'no demand.' Low trading volume is indeed a problem, as recent trading activity has been relatively flat without significant breakout volume, indicating weak follow-through on rebounds and insufficient upward momentum in the short term. However, low trading volume doesn’t necessarily mean funds have completely withdrawn; it could also signify that the market is in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting clearer direction.

What truly matters isn’t the low trading volume itself, but whether the stock price can still hold above 83.280 under such conditions. If even 83.280 can’t be defended, low trading volume will translate into weak support, and the next focus will be on 79.803. Conversely, if trading volume hasn’t significantly increased, but the price can stabilize above 83.280 and re-cross 84.770, the market’s ingrained belief that 'Meituan’s rebounds always fail' will need to be reassessed.

The key pivot for Meituan is 84.770. This level is not only the middle axis of the Bollinger Band but also the first confirmation point for whether the short-term trend will turn bullish. The current price at 82.7 is still below it, so we cannot say that the trend has improved yet. If it fails to reclaim 84.770, all talk of 'right-side beginnings,' 'reaching 90,' or 'reaching 100' are merely emotional speculation and have not yet become price confirmations.

However, if Meituan breaks back above 84.770, the short-term structure will change significantly. First, the price would regain its position above the Bollinger Band midline, indicating the start of a recovery from weak consolidation. Second, funds accustomed to shorting at highs might need to pause or even close their positions. Third, the market’s expectation of testing 89.737 would become reasonable.

On the other hand, if Meituan falls below 83.280, sentiment will quickly turn sour. The market already lacks confidence in the rebound, and if it can't even hold above the 10-day moving average near the current price, investors will easily revert to old narratives like 'pumping and dumping' or 'heading back below 80.' At that point, 79.803 will become the next risk zone.

The Relative Strength Index is approximately 49.428, close to 50 but not yet showing real strength. This figure closely reflects Meituan's current market state—it's not extremely weak, but it's also not strong. This indicates that Meituan isn't currently a position suitable for blindly chasing, but rather one where we should wait for confirmation of direction. The more emotional the market gets, the more important technical thresholds become.

Overall, Meituan hasn’t turned strongly bullish yet, but it’s not without opportunities either. The issue lies in weak market confidence, with rebounds lacking significant trading volume to support them, so investors naturally tend to view every rise as a short-term exit opportunity. This pessimism has its reasons, but if the stock price can hold above 83.280 and break through 84.770 again, market sentiment towards Meituan could shift from 'weak rebound' to 'bottom recovery.'

In terms of short-term strategy, Meituan should use 84.770 as the confirmation level for turning stronger and 83.280 as the first defensive line. Before breaking above 84.770, the risk-reward ratio for chasing the stock remains low; if it breaks above 84.770, there may be an opportunity to test 89.737 in the short term. However, if it falls below 83.280, one should be mindful of the risk of retesting 79.803.

The conclusion is that the most important question for Meituan now isn't whether it can reach 100, but whether it can reclaim 84.770. The market has been very disappointed with it, but whether the stock price truly fails will depend on the two key levels: 83.280 and 84.770.

Meituan-W (03690): Key Strategy: Holding above 83.280 could lead to a rebound and consolidation before testing 84.770 again; breaking through 84.770 opens the possibility of reaching 89.737; if it falls below 83.280, beware of a retest of 79.803.

Strategy One | Hold above 83.280 for a rebound play

28065 | 87.04 | 5.0x leverage | Close to the upper pivot, suitable for capturing the initial rebound after the stock price stabilizes

27933 | 86.99 | 5.0x leverage | Strike price nearby, suitable for short-term rebounds before an official breakout

28039 | 86.95 | 4.1x leverage | Lower leverage, suitable for reducing volatility while waiting for the trend to slowly recover

$UBMTUAN@EC2610D.C (28065.HK)$$MSMTUAN@EC2610B.C (27933.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EC2612D.C (28039.HK)$

Strategy Two | Break above 84.770 to target 89.737

26464 | 90.05 | 6.4x leverage | Close to the 89.737 target zone, ideal for short-term flexibility after a breakout

26526 | 90.05 | 5.6x leverage | Also near the target level, but with milder leverage, suitable for more stable follow-ups after the breakout

26603 | 90.05 | 6.6x leverage | Higher flexibility, suitable for more aggressive positioning after confirming a break above the pivot

$UBMTUAN@EC2608C.C (26464.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EC2609A.C (26526.HK)$$HSMTUAN@EC2608C.C (26603.HK)$

Strategy Three | Watch for a drop below 83.280 to prevent a retreat to 79.803

21519 | 82.83 | 5.8x leverage | Positioned close to current price, suitable for capturing initial weakness after a drop below 83.280

20793 | 82.88 | 6.2x leverage | Higher leverage, suitable for short-term defense once the breakdown is confirmed

23019 | 82.83 | 6.5x leverage | Most flexible, ideal for aggressive bearish strategies but with higher volatility

$UBMTUAN@EP2607A.P (21519.HK)$$CIMTUAN@EP2607A.P (20793.HK)$$GJMTUAN@EP2607A.P (23019.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met and should be used alongside other data for a comprehensive assessment of asset performance; trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s HK warrants for more professional insights. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

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