If Kuaishou breaks through HK$44.88, it will test HK$46.41 and HK$47.53

Kuaishou is trading at HK$45.06. Based on investor comments, market sentiment towards Kuaishou is more conflicted than towards Meituan. On one hand, some investors believe Kuaishou's valuation is already low, its P/E ratio is not high, it pays dividends, and the current price is not expensive; some even anticipate a rebound to above HK$60, HK$70, or HK$80. On the other hand, more comments reflect long-term disappointment, being stuck in losses, lack of trust in rebounds, and the belief that every rise is an opportunity to short sell. This sentiment structure indicates that while Kuaishou is not completely disregarded, those who are optimistic lack sufficient confidence to push the stock price higher.

The core market contradiction for Kuaishou now is that while its fundamental valuation appears cheap, the price movement remains weak. Some commenters mentioned single-digit P/E ratios, dividends, and whether the share price is really expensive—this reflects typical value-based thinking. The issue is that weak stocks in the Hong Kong market often exhibit a situation where 'valuation is low but the stock price is even lower.' A low valuation can provide mid-term support, but it doesn’t automatically lead to a short-term strengthening. What truly changes market perception isn’t cheap valuation—it’s when the stock price retakes key levels.

Currently, Kuaishou is trading at HK$45.06, slightly above the 10-day moving average near HK$44.054, but has yet to fully recover the pivotal level. This suggests that while Kuaishou hasn't completely broken down, it also hasn't confirmed a rebound. If the market simply assumes it "should rise" due to low valuation, it easily overlooks a more direct reality: before the price moves back above HK$44.882, it remains in a short-term consolidation phase with weak momentum.

Another prominent sentiment seen in the comments is fatigue regarding Kuaishou's long-term trend. Some ask when it will reach 60, others joke that Kuaishou should be called 'Quick Exit,' some say it feels like it's dying when rising and killing people when falling, while others express having lost all confidence and hope in it. These types of comments aren’t just complaints—they reflect heavy overhead resistance. When a stock falls too far from its peak for too long, investors’ psychology shifts from 'waiting for a rebound to make money' to 'waiting to break even and reduce holdings.' This makes every rebound prone to selling pressure, as many aren’t looking to add positions but instead want to exit.

This is why it’s difficult for Kuaishou to suddenly strengthen in the short term. It’s not that there’s no buying interest, but whenever the stock price approaches upper resistance levels, trapped investors, short-term traders, and short sellers all appear simultaneously. Comments frequently mention levels such as 45, 46, 48, and 60, but technically, the first hurdle isn’t 60 or even 48—it’s 44.882. Without reclaiming 44.882, talk of surpassing 60 is merely a mid-term wish, not a short-term trading signal.

Another noticeable sentiment in the comments reflects a bearish or short-selling mindset. Some believe Kuaishou is merely luring buyers into a bull trap, others mention increased short selling, some say selling near the 20-day moving average is safer, and others think any upward movement is an opportunity to go short again. These types of comments suggest that the market has developed a habit: since Kuaishou can't sustain upward momentum, every rebound becomes an opportunity to short sell. This behavior is common for weak stocks and currently aligns with price action, as Kuaishou's rebounds have failed to break through effectively.

However, this bearish inertia also carries risks. If the stock price repeatedly doesn't fall below 42.237 and instead rises above 44.882 again, funds accustomed to shorting at highs will need to reassess. In other words, Kuaishou won't necessarily drop just because some are bearish, nor will it necessarily rise just because some are bullish. What truly matters is whether the stock price can break through the weak inertia that has already formed in the market.

Trading volume is another issue. The latest trading bar shows shrinking volume, indicating that rebounds lack significant trading support, and short-term buying power remains weak. This aligns with sentiments like “low turnover,” “weak rallies,” and “small orders can crash it.” Insufficient volume means the market still lacks enough capital willing to actively push prices up. Even if some are optimistic about Kuaishou’s AI, monthly active users, revenue, cash, or valuation, these narratives haven’t yet turned into effective buying pressure.

It's important to distinguish one thing: Kuaishou's medium-term story and its short-term price movement are not the same thing. AI flexibility, low valuation, dividend payouts, cash reserves, and user base size are all factors that could support a medium- to long-term revaluation. However, short-term trading focuses on whether funds are entering, whether the stock price breaks through key levels, and whether trading volume supports the move. If the price continues to hover below HK$44.882, it indicates that the market is still observing rather than reassessing the stock's value.

The biggest misjudgment about Kuaishou right now is that the bullish side prematurely treats low valuation as a reason for a rebound, while the bearish side habitually sees every rebound as a trap. Both sides overlook a simple technical fact: 44.882 is currently the most important short-term dividing line.

If Kuaishou can rise above 44.882 again, the short-term structure may improve, and the next targets would be 46.412 and 47.527. If the breakout occurs but volume remains insufficient, the rally might just be a correction; however, if the breakout comes with strong volume, the market's view that 'Kuaishou is staging a false rally' will start to waver.

Conversely, if Kuaishou fails to rise above 44.882 and falls below 42.237, market concerns about testing 41.920 will quickly escalate. At that point, those who are still buying on dips or waiting for a rebound might fall back into disappointment, and the short-selling inertia will further strengthen.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 48.579, close to 50 but not truly turning strong, which reflects Kuaishou's current state. It's not extremely weak, but it hasn't turned strong either. The short-term situation remains volatile, lacking enough momentum to confirm the rebound.

Overall, Kuaishou isn't without value right now; the market just isn't willing to give it a higher valuation. Investors can discuss whether it's cheap or whether its AI is undervalued, but short-term trading can't rely solely on narratives. For the current stock price, the most important thing isn’t when it might return to 60 or whether it can hit 70 by year-end—it’s whether it can first regain a foothold above 44.882.

In terms of short-term strategy, Kuaishou should treat 44.882 as the confirmation level for strength. Until it breaks above this, the rebound lacks confirmation, and chasing the stock offers a low reward-to-risk ratio. If it can rise above 44.882, there may be opportunities to test 46.412 and 47.527. If it falls below 42.237, watch for the risk of testing 41.920.

In conclusion, Kuaishou is still caught between bottoming out and showing signs of weakness. The market has grown impatient with it, but the real direction will not be determined by sentiment, but rather by whether the price can reclaim 44.882. Low valuation can serve as a mid-term rationale, but short-term trading requires price confirmation first.

Kuaishou-W (01024): Key strategy: Maintain above HK$42.237 for a potential rebound test toward HK$44.882; breaking above HK$44.882 could extend gains to HK$46.412 and HK$47.527. A drop below HK$42.237 requires caution for another test of HK$41.920.

Strategy One | Hold steady at 42.237 for a rebound

29806 | 48.93 | 8.3x leverage | Close to the current price above, suitable for capturing initial rebound after solid support

27056 | 48.88 | 6.7x leverage | Moderate leverage, suitable for steady rebound deployment before breakout

27750 | 46.88 | 4.6x leverage | Close to resistance zone, suitable for gradually reducing positions near 44.882 during rebound

$BIKUASO@EC2607A.C (29806.HK)$$MBKUASO@EC2607A.C (27056.HK)$$CIKUASO@EC2609A.C (27750.HK)$

Strategy Two | Break above 44.882 to chase upward target of 46.412–47.527

28020 | 49.92 | 4.8x leverage | Strike price corresponds to the upside target zone, suitable for follow-up after breakout

27806 | 49.90 | 4.7x leverage | Balanced leverage, suitable for medium-short term holding after confirming strengthening

27772 | 50.88 | 4.2x leverage | Further distance, suitable for viewing extended uptrend after breakout

$CTKUASO@EC2610A.C (28020.HK)$$MSKUASO@EC2610A.C (27806.HK)$$UBKUASO@EC2611B.C (27772.HK)$

Strategy Three | Drop below 42.237 to guard against pullback to 41.920

18474 | 49.83 | 2.1x leverage | Close to the current price, suitable for early-stage hedging after breaking support

17479｜49.83｜2.1x leverage｜Moderate leverage, suitable for risk-controlled defensive deployment

17395｜49.88｜2.2x leverage｜Slightly higher elasticity, suitable for strengthening hedging after confirming a downturn

$HSKUASO@EP2612A.P (18474.HK)$$UBKUASO@EP2612A.P (17479.HK)$$CIKUASO@EP2612A.P (17395.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

34K Views