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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a post · May 6 11:43

Geely Auto failed to hold above 23 yuan, testing the support at 22.7 yuan as the market mistakenly equated 'sector strength' with 'individual stock breakout'

Looking at the overall automobile sector, $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$
The technical signal is 'neutral', consistent with $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ 、 $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ The rating consensus is only $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ And, $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ ) remains in the 'Buy' range.
This indicates that Geely's current consolidation around 23 yuan is occurring in an environment where the sector’s internal technical ratings have yet to form a strong consensus. Its 'neutral' signal contrasts with the market's optimistic expectations for new energy vehicles, technically confirming that the market may have prematurely equated sector strength with individual stock breakouts. This also means that for Geely to truly strengthen, it not only needs to break through the 23.787 resistance level but also requires synchronized improvement in the technical ratings of the sector (Li Auto/Nio), a challenge that should not be underestimated.
Geely Auto closed at 23.000 on the previous day (5th), with a daily drop of 0.09%. Judging from investor comments, market sentiment towards Geely is clearly optimistic, but this optimism stems more from mid-term imagination rather than short-term breakout confirmation. Some investors are looking at year-end targets of 60, others at 88.88, and some have even proposed short-term targets of 50, mid-term targets of 80, and long-term targets of 100. There are also those who believe that the new energy vehicle sector is gaining momentum, with CATL showing strong performance, and Geely should follow suit upward. These comments reflect that the market is still willing to assign growth stock valuation potential to Geely Auto, but at the same time, they tend to overlook one issue: the stock price has yet to break through a key inflection point.
Looking at the overall automobile sector, $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ The technical signal is 'neutral', consistent with $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ 、 $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ 's rating, only $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ And, $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ ) is in the 'buy' range. This indicates that Geely Auto's current consolidation around 23 yuan is occurring in an environment where the sector’s internal technical ratings have not yet formed a unified strong trend. Its 'neutral' signal contrasts with the market's optimistic expectations for new energy vehicles, technically confirming that the market may have prematurely equated sector strength with individual stock breakthroughs. This also implies that for Geely Auto to truly strengthen, it not only needs to break through the resistance at 23.787 but also requires simultaneous improvement in the technical ratings of the sector (Li Auto/Nio), which presents a significant challenge. Geely Auto closed at 23.000 on the previous day (5th), falling 0.09% in a single day. Judging from investor comments, market sentiment towards Geely Auto appears to be significantly optimistic, but this optimism largely stems from mid-term speculation rather than confirmation of short-term breakthroughs. Some investors are looking at year-end targets of 60, others at 88.88, and some have even proposed short-term targets of 50, medium-term targets of 80, and long-term targets of 100. Others believe that the new energy vehicle sector is gaining strength, with CATL showing momentum, and Geely Auto should follow suit upwards. These comments reflect that the market is still willing to assign growth stock valuation expectations to Geely Auto, but at the same time...
The biggest market contradiction for Geely right now is that investors have high expectations for the target price, but the share price remains stuck around the 23-yuan level consolidating. This suggests that the market isn't entirely without confidence, but funds are still reluctant to aggressively chase higher prices above current levels. Based on sentiment in the comments, many investors have already placed Geely within the main theme of a new energy vehicle rebound, believing that improving industry sentiment, enthusiasm from auto shows, and renewed attention to the EV sector will push Geely higher.
However, short-term trading cannot rely solely on sector sentiment. Geely Auto closed at 23.000 on the previous day, below the 5-day line at 23.138 and the middle Bollinger Band axis at 23.787, indicating that although the stock has not shown significant weakness, it has yet to confirm a rebound. The current price is above the 30-day line at 22.707 and the lower Bollinger Band at 21.868, suggesting temporary support below, but as long as it does not rise back above 23.787, the trend can only be viewed as consolidation after a pullback from higher levels.
The most noteworthy aspect of investor comments is the significant presence of voices advocating 'adding positions' or 'waiting for further upside.' Some investors mentioned adding positions near 22.7, believing that after a pullback from recent highs, there’s potential for another rebound to new highs; others think that as long as the price holds above 23, it could move toward 30. This reflects that the market is treating the range between 22.7 and 23 yuan as a short-term support zone, which aligns closely with technical positions. The 30-day line at 22.707 is currently the first important support level, and if this holds, Geely still has the potential to consolidate before rebounding in the short term.
However, one risk with the optimistic sentiment is the premature assumption that 23 yuan is an ironclad bottom. Although Geely closed today at 23 yuan, the latest trading volume has clearly contracted, reflecting that the pullback hasn’t seen heavy panic selling—a positive sign—but the rebound also lacks sufficient trading volume, indicating funds haven’t truly accelerated their entry. Without substantial trading volume, even if the share price holds above 23 yuan, it may not immediately break through 23.787.
Another type of commentary reflects lingering caution in the market. Some mentioned that Morgan is still selling, while others questioned whether this is just a short-term rebound after market stabilization. These views serve as a reminder: Geely Auto is not currently in a unilateral uptrend but is in a confidence-testing phase following a pullback from highs. As long as the levels at 23.138 and 23.787 remain unbroken, bears still have reason to believe the rebound lacks strength.
Thus, the biggest misjudgment at this stage is that the bullish side equates the sentiment of the new energy vehicle sector with Geely’s breakout too early, while the bearish side prematurely regards the consolidation with reduced volume as a failed rebound. The real dividing line is clear: it is 23.787.
If Geely Auto can first regain above the 5-day line at 23.138 and then surpass 23.787, the short-term structure will show significant improvement. At that point, investors' optimism about reaching 25.706 or even higher levels would have a technical foundation. Conversely, if the stock price continues to be constrained below 23.787, the market's medium-term optimism will remain only at the expectation level, and the short term will continue to see a tug-of-war.
On the downside, watch for 22.707. If Geely breaks below 22.707, it would indicate a loss of support at the 30-day line, and concerns about a pullback from highs will escalate, with the next focus being 21.868. If this level is tested, short-term sentiment could shift from 'consolidation before another rise' to 'correction not yet complete.'
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 48.418, with momentum yet to return above 50, reflecting Geely's current state. It is not significantly weak but has not entered a strong zone either. Investors’ optimism about the new energy vehicle theme is understandable, but the stock must first restore its momentum; otherwise, it will likely continue to fluctuate near the 23 yuan mark in the short term.
Overall, Geely Auto does have opportunities, but confirmation of a breakout is still lacking. The market’s medium-term outlook for it is relatively optimistic, but its short-term positioning remains awkward. With the current price near 23 yuan, supported by 22.707 on the downside and facing resistance at 23.138 and 23.787 on the upside, this forms a typical consolidation zone rather than a clear upward trend.
For short-term strategy, Geely should use 23.787 as the confirmation level for turning stronger. Before breaking above it, the risk-reward ratio for entering remains neutral to slightly low. If it manages to break through 23.138 and 23.787, there may be a short-term opportunity to retest 25.706. However, if it falls below 22.707, one should be cautious about further downside testing towards 21.868.
In conclusion, for Geely, the focus now is not on targets like 60, 80, or 88.88, but rather on whether 23.787 can be reclaimed. The new energy vehicle sector has potential, but short-term trading needs to return to price dynamics. Only when the stock regains its pivotal level will market optimism stand a chance of translating into a genuine upward trend.
Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:
$MSGEELY@EC2611A.C (27935.HK)$$UBGEELY@EP2610B.P (28169.HK)$
Looking at the overall automobile sector, $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ The technical signal is 'neutral', consistent with $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ 、 $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ 's rating, only $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ And, $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ ) is in the 'buy' range. This indicates that Geely Auto's current consolidation around 23 yuan is occurring in an environment where the sector’s internal technical ratings have not yet formed a unified strong trend. Its 'neutral' signal contrasts with the market's optimistic expectations for new energy vehicles, technically confirming that the market may have prematurely equated sector strength with individual stock breakthroughs. This also implies that for Geely Auto to truly strengthen, it not only needs to break through the resistance at 23.787 but also requires simultaneous improvement in the technical ratings of the sector (Li Auto/Nio), which presents a significant challenge. Geely Auto closed at 23.000 on the previous day (5th), falling 0.09% in a single day. Judging from investor comments, market sentiment towards Geely Auto appears to be significantly optimistic, but this optimism largely stems from mid-term speculation rather than confirmation of short-term breakthroughs. Some investors are looking at year-end targets of 60, others at 88.88, and some have even proposed short-term targets of 50, medium-term targets of 80, and long-term targets of 100. Others believe that the new energy vehicle sector is gaining strength, with CATL showing momentum, and Geely Auto should follow suit upwards. These comments reflect that the market is still willing to assign growth stock valuation expectations to Geely Auto, but at the same time...
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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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