CATL rebounded strongly to RMB 655, but the market's focus is not on the target price, but whether it can reclaim 666.
CATL closed at 655 yuan yesterday (August 5), up 3.72%. On the surface, this day's movement was a rebound, but from the perspective of investor sentiment, the market is not simply optimistic. Instead, there is strong optimism, skepticism, and short-term观望 (wait-and-see). This sentiment structure usually indicates that the stock price is near a critical turning point rather than having already chosen a direction. Today (August 6), the stock price is at 655.5 yuan.
Among investor comments, the most prominent voice is strongly optimistic. Some predict targets of 700, 750, 815, or even higher. Others believe factors such as major institutions increasing holdings, raising target prices, new product cycles, sodium-ion batteries, and condensed-state batteries are sufficient to support CATL’s upward trajectory. These views reflect that the market still believes in CATL's leading position and its medium-to-long-term growth story.
However, the issue is that these mid-to-long-term positives do not equate to short-term strength. The current price of 655.000 remains below the 10-day moving average of 665.900 and the middle Bollinger Band axis at 666.193, meaning technically this is still just a high-volume rebound after a pullback from highs, not confirmation of a renewed uptrend. In other words, while the market may first buy into the story, the price must first reclaim the area around 666 for the story to potentially translate into a short-term upward move.
Another group of comments reflects clear skepticism. Some believe institutions are talking up the stock while selling off, while others worry about increased selling pressure once southbound capital returns, even viewing today’s rebound as an exit opportunity. These opinions aren’t entirely baseless since the current price hasn’t yet broken through the inflection point, and if the rally is driven solely by news without breaking resistance, it could easily retreat again after the bounce.
However, the bearish side might also be making another mistake, which is prematurely dismissing the support around 650 to 655. CATL rebounded today with trading volume support and managed to close near 655, indicating that there is still buying interest in the market. Especially since the current price is close to the 30-day moving average at 655.317, whether this level can hold will directly determine if today's rebound is a short-term recovery or just an emotional pullback.
What’s really worth noting is that many investors are actually watching the same level—around 666. Some mention filling the gap, others say surpassing 666 is necessary for confirmation, while some view 666 as a key level near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. This aligns perfectly with technical analysis. At 666.193, this is currently the watershed. Until it breaks above, CATL hasn’t completed its transition to strength; once it does break through, the market will regain a basis for imagining prices above 700.
Therefore, the easiest mistake to make at this stage is being misled by target prices. Targets like 700, 750, 815, or even 1000 are emotional goals, not immediate trading signals. The truly useful levels are at 665.900 and 666.193. If the stock price can rise above these two levels again, there may be a chance to retest 738.029 in the short term. If it fails to break through, today's volume-driven rebound should still only be considered a bounce—not confirmation of an uptrend.
On the flip side, the level at 655.317 is also crucial. If the stock price falls below 655.317, it means the support near the current price has weakened, and concerns about 594.356 will resurface. At that point, the more optimistic voices today could easily turn into short-term profit-taking pressure.
Overall, CATL is not a weak stock right now, but it hasn't fully strengthened either. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 50.447, which has just returned to neutral territory, and momentum isn’t particularly strong. Increased trading volume is a positive sign, indicating market participation, but the volume surge must coincide with a breakout to have real trading value.
For short-term strategy, CATL should use 666.193 as the confirmation level for strengthening and 655.317 as the short-term defensive line. Before breaking through 666.193, chasing the stock offers limited reward; if it does break through and stabilizes, then 738.029 becomes a potential target. If it falls below 655.317, one should guard against a retest of 594.356.
The conclusion is, for CATL now it's not about the story but the positioning. Market sentiment is already heated enough; what truly lacks is price confirmation.
Key strategy for CATL (03750): Maintain above 655.317 for a rebound recovery. A breakout above 665.900 and 666.193 could lead to testing 738.029; if it falls below 655.317, be cautious of a retracement to 594.356.
Strategy 1 | Hold above 655.317 for a rebound
15872 | Strike Price 629.38 | 4.6x Leverage | Strike price slightly below current price, suitable for holding support before aiming for a rebound recovery
13229 | Strike Price 629.38 | 5.1x Leverage | Higher leverage, suitable for capturing faster gains after improved rebound momentum
16117 | Strike price 629.38 | 4.9x leverage | Balanced elasticity and defense, suitable for betting on a rebound before a breakout
Strategy Two | Buy on breakout above 666.193
28561 | Strike price 835.85 | 4.1x leverage | Farther from the upside target, suitable for viewing rebound extension after a breakout
28459 | Strike price 799.50 | 4.7x leverage | Strike price closer to extended target, suitable for following the trend after breaking through the watershed
28251 | Strike price 788.50 | 4.9x leverage | Slightly higher leverage, suitable for aggressive capture of upward movement after breakout confirmation
Strategy Three | Bet on pullback if it breaks below 655.317
27083 | Strike price 550.88 | 2.4x leverage | Closer to pullback target, suitable for betting on a test down to 594.356 after breaking support
27289 | Strike price 551.38 | 2.7x leverage | Slightly higher elasticity, suitable for capturing pullbacks after weakness confirmation
27504 | Strike price 551.38 | 2.7x leverage | Similar leverage, suitable for bearish outlook but not wanting to choose deep out-of-the-money products
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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