Pop Mart holding above 156 yuan: Is it a 'cooling of speculative fervor' or the 'end of an uptrend'?

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Currently trading at 156.900. Investors' comments are clearly divided into two camps: one side believes the speculative fever has passed, trading volume is shrinking, and it will eventually fall back to lower levels; the other side believes there is buying support near 155 yuan, even speculating on targets of 160, 170, and 200. Market focus is on three things: whether 155 to 156 yuan is genuine support, whether short sellers will be forced to cover their positions, and whether Pop Mart still has a mid-term growth story.

The most valuable aspect of these comments is that the market has simplified Pop Mart into two narratives: a 'speculative stock' and 'Duan’s buying.' The bearish side believes the craze is over, trading volume has significantly decreased, and a drop back to 70 yuan is only a matter of time; the bullish side views 155 yuan as a key support level, believing that rising short-selling costs, short covering, and major shareholder-related buying will support the stock price. Both sides show strong sentiment, but neither fully constitutes a trading signal.

The key thing to watch is whether 156.695 can hold.

Pop Mart's current price of 156.900 is above the Bollinger Band middle axis at 156.695 and the 10-day line at 157.490, showing slight improvement in the short-term rebound structure. This indicates that market support around 155-157 yuan is not just rhetoric but is backed by price action. As long as 156.695 does not break down, the claim that 'speculative fervor is dead' cannot be confirmed technically.

However, the bullish side should not hastily assume an upward trend has restarted. The current price remains below the 30-day moving average at 162.730 and the upper Bollinger Band at 167.307, with the latest trading volume shrinking, reflecting that the rebound lacks significant trading support. In other words, there is 'support,' but no 'breakout.'

The most common mistake in the market now is seeing the stock price hold above 155-156 and immediately expecting it to reach 200; or, upon noticing shrinking volume, directly projecting a drop to 70. A more reasonable assessment is that Pop Mart is testing its recovery ability between 156.695 and 162.730.

If the stock price can stabilize above 156.695 and 157.490, there is still a short-term opportunity to test 162.730; if it breaks above 162.730, previously bearish funds claiming 'the speculative phase is over' may need to reassess, with the next resistance at 167.307. Conversely, if it falls below 156.695, concerns about 146.083 will resurface, indicating the rebound structure has been disrupted.

Overall, Pop Mart's short-term risk-reward ratio is neutral. Sentiment in comments is heated, but the price has yet to confirm a full turnaround. The real trading boundary isn't the rumored support at 155 or the emotional target of 200, but whether 156.695 can hold and whether 162.730 can be broken.

Key strategy: Holding firm above 156.695 and 157.490 could lead to a rebound, breaking above 162.730 opens a path to test 167.307; if it breaks below 156.695, watch out for a retest of 146.083.

Strategy One | Hold firm above 156.695 and 157.490 for a rebound play

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike price 186.88 | 4.4x leverage | Reasonable strike price distance, suitable for short-term rebound plays after holding key supports $CTPOMRT@EC2609D.C (28018.HK)$ | Strike Price 186.78 | 5.0x Leverage | Slightly higher leverage, suitable for capturing a rebound and riding faster upward momentum after improvement $HSPOMRT@EC2609B.C (27794.HK)$ | Strike Price 189.92 | 5.0x Leverage | Higher flexibility, suitable for short-term deployment before testing 162.730

Strategy Two | Buy above 162.730 to target 167.307

$BIPOMRT@EC2609A.C (28132.HK)$ | Strike Price 202.20 | 5.5x Leverage | Higher flexibility after the breakout, suitable for following through once the resistance is confirmed broken $CTPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27704.HK)$ | Strike Price 202.00 | 5.3x Leverage | Acceptable distance to strike price, suitable for expecting an extended rebound $MBPOMRT@EC2610A.C (27756.HK)$ | Strike Price 199.92 | 5.0x Leverage | Balanced leverage, suitable for more stable follow-up after the breakout

Strategy Three | Targeting a drop below 156.695 for downside play

$UBPOMRT@EP2607A.P (22558.HK)$ | Strike Price 162.82 | 4.2x Leverage | Close to current price, suitable for capturing downside flexibility after breaking the watershed $HUPOMRT@EP2607B.P (23513.HK)$ | Strike Price 162.82 | 4.3x Leverage | Slightly higher leverage, suitable for aggressive positioning after confirming weakness $BPPOMRT@EP2607A.P (24971.HK)$ | Strike Price 162.90 | 4.2x Leverage | Flexibility and distance are balanced, suitable for targeting a retest of 146.083

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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