Xiaomi holds above 30 yuan, but the market's real misjudgment is equating 'share repurchase + high short-selling' directly with a confirmed rebound.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Latest price at 31, up 1.71%. Investor sentiment is highly divided: some believe the bottom was seen at 28.8, share repurchases can provide support, and a high short-selling ratio could trigger a short squeeze; others think the rebound is just a dead cat bounce, with 30 being only temporary support, and some are even waiting to enter at 24, 25, or 28. Market focus is clearly on three things: whether 30 can hold, if shorts will be squeezed, and whether buybacks are truly effective.

The most valuable aspect of these comments is that bulls see 'high short positions' as a reason for a guaranteed rise, while bears see 'unable to rise' as a reason for an inevitable fall. Both sides are jumping to conclusions too early.

Xiaomi’s current price is 31, still above the lower Bollinger Band at 29.378 but below the middle Bollinger Band at 31.146, technically indicating a weak rebound without confirmation of strength. In other words, support near 30 does not confirm an upward trend; a high short-selling ratio also doesn’t guarantee an immediate short squeeze.

The market's biggest misjudgment now is equating 'not breaking below 30' with 'bottom confirmed.' What really needs to be watched are not the 30-yuan level, but 30.820 and 31.146. If Xiaomi cannot break back above these two levels, talk of share repurchases, short squeezes, and southbound capital inflows will remain at the emotional level, making it difficult to turn into a sustainable upward trend.

However, bears must not overlook one point: after the stock price nears 29.378 but still manages to recover above 30, it indicates there is still some underlying support. Comments frequently mention phrases like 'high short interest,' 'short sellers beware,' 'end-of-day buying spree,' and 'buyback floors,' which, though emotionally driven, reflect market expectations for a potential rebound below. If the price rises above 31.146, previously short or观望 (onlooking) funds might be forced to reassess, creating a short-term opportunity to retest 32.914.

Therefore, Xiaomi has neither definitively bottomed out nor is guaranteed to fall further; instead, it is in a 'psychological battle to defend the 30-level.'

The key issue lies in shrinking trading volumes. The lack of significant volume accompanying rebounds suggests insufficient support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at approximately 46.276, still below 50, indicating that momentum has yet to fully recover. This explains why the market feels Xiaomi 'can't bounce back': it’s not that there’s no buying interest, but rather that the buying power is insufficient to reverse the weak structure.

For short-term strategies, the 30-level can be viewed as an emotional boundary, while the technical inflection point remains at 31.146. If the price can first break above 30.820 and then stabilize above 31.146, a weak rebound could potentially upgrade into a short-term strengthening, with the next target being 32.914. Conversely, if the price falls below 29.378, fears of another breakdown below 28.8 will resurface, making 28.800 the next risk level.

Overall, Xiaomi's risk-reward ratio at this stage is neutral to slightly low. Comments reflect a lively market, but liveliness does not equate to strength. The true tradable signal isn't about who announces buybacks or calls for a short squeeze—it’s whether the stock price can reclaim 31.146.

Strategy 1 | Break above 30.820 and 31.146 to chase strengthening

$UBXIAMI@EC2609E.C (28195.HK)$ | Strike price 37.01 | 6.9x leverage | Not too far from the upside target, suitable for chasing gains after breaking through the inflection point $HSXIAMI@EC2609E.C (28627.HK)$ | Strike price 37.01 | 6.9x leverage | Balanced leverage, suitable for expecting further extension beyond testing 32.914 $BIXIAMI@EC2609F.C (26555.HK)$ | Strike price 36.99 | 7.1x leverage | Higher flexibility, suitable for more aggressive capture of gains after breakout confirmation

Strategy Two | Target a drop below 29.378 to test 28.800

$UBXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26121.HK)$ | Strike price 28.16 | 5.9x leverage | Close to downside target, suitable for capturing rebounds after support breaks $MSXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26086.HK)$ | Strike price 28.16 | 6.0x leverage | Suitable for targeting a short-term drop to 28.800 after falling below 29.378 $BIXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26045.HK)$ | Strike price 28.16 | 6.4x leverage | Higher leverage, suitable for aggressive positions after confirming weakness

Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

#HongKongStocks #LiveAnalysis #WarrantPicks #WarrantStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HKStocksWarrantsJenny #HangSengIndex #Xiaomi #BlueChipStocks #TechnicalAnalysis

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$

85K Views