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Inflation heats up, central banks turn hawkish! Is the wind changing for gold prices?
港股窩輪Jenny
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Zijin Mining fell close to 35 yuan. The market isn't doubting the earnings performance, but short-term concerns are starting to emerge regarding whether there's enough buying support.

From the perspective of gold mining peers, the market performance was mixed on the previous day (5th).， $CHIFENG GOLD (06693.HK)$ Up 2.53%， $ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$ A slight drop of 0.36%, $SD GOLD (01787.HK)$ A decrease of 1.34%. Technical signals showed a significant contrast: despite generally volatile stock prices, the technical indicator summary signals for Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and Chifeng Gold were all 'Strong Buy'.
In comparison, $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$
The technical signal is 'Neutral.' This indicates that Zijin Mining’s weak adjustment occurred in an environment where peers had generally extremely optimistic technical aspects and strong system ratings. Its 'neutral' signal contrasts sharply with its peers' 'strong buy,' precisely explaining from a technical perspective the market's confusion — 'Why is the stock price weak when the performance is not bad?' This divergence may imply that its fundamental strengths have not yet translated into synchronized strength on the technical side; funds are relatively cautious about it in the short term, or a clearer catalyst might be needed to reverse this situation.
From the perspective of gold mining peers, the market performance was mixed on the previous day (5th).， $CHIFENG GOLD (06693.HK)$ Up 2.53%， $ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$ A slight drop of 0.36%, $SD GOLD (01787.HK)$ A decrease of 1.34%. Technical signals showed a significant contrast: despite generally volatile stock prices, the technical indicator summary signals for Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and Chifeng Gold were all 'Strong Buy'. In comparison, $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ The technical signal is 'Neutral.' This indicates that Zijin Mining’s weak adjustment occurred in an environment where peers had generally extremely optimistic technical aspects and strong system ratings. Its 'neutral' signal contrasts sharply with its peers' 'strong buy,' precisely explaining from a technical perspective the market's confusion — 'Why is the stock price weak when the performance is not bad?' This divergence may imply that its fundamental strengths have not yet translated into synchronized strength on the technical side; funds are relatively cautious about it in the short term, or a clearer catalyst might be needed to reverse this situation. Zijin Mining closed at 35.500 on the previous day (5th), down 0.84%. Investors’ comments focused significantly on one question: the gold price remains high, and the performance is not bad, so why is the stock price still persistently weak? Market sentiment is not simply bearish but rather dominated by disappointment. Some investors think Zijin has 'fallen more than its peers' or 'has good performance but the stock price is falling,' and some even questioned whether the speculation on resource stocks has already...
Zijin Mining closed at 35.500 on the previous day (5th), down 0.84%. Investors’ comments focused significantly on one question: the gold price remains high, and the performance is not bad, so why is the stock price still persistently weak?
From the perspective of gold mining peers, the market performance was mixed on the previous day (5th).， $CHIFENG GOLD (06693.HK)$ Up 2.53%， $ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$ A slight drop of 0.36%, $SD GOLD (01787.HK)$ A decrease of 1.34%. Technical signals showed a significant contrast: despite generally volatile stock prices, the technical indicator summary signals for Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and Chifeng Gold were all 'Strong Buy'. In comparison, $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ The technical signal is 'Neutral.' This indicates that Zijin Mining’s weak adjustment occurred in an environment where peers had generally extremely optimistic technical aspects and strong system ratings. Its 'neutral' signal contrasts sharply with its peers' 'strong buy,' precisely explaining from a technical perspective the market's confusion — 'Why is the stock price weak when the performance is not bad?' This divergence may imply that its fundamental strengths have not yet translated into synchronized strength on the technical side; funds are relatively cautious about it in the short term, or a clearer catalyst might be needed to reverse this situation. Zijin Mining closed at 35.500 on the previous day (5th), down 0.84%. Investors’ comments focused significantly on one question: the gold price remains high, and the performance is not bad, so why is the stock price still persistently weak? Market sentiment is not simply bearish but rather dominated by disappointment. Some investors think Zijin has 'fallen more than its peers' or 'has good performance but the stock price is falling,' and some even questioned whether the speculation on resource stocks has already...
Market sentiment isn't simply bearish; it's more driven by disappointment. Some investors feel that Zijin 'has fallen more than its peers,' or 'despite good earnings, the stock price dropped.' Some even question whether the speculative momentum in resource stocks has started to fade. This reflects that investors aren’t denying the company’s fundamentals, but are questioning whether short-term capital is still willing to chase resource stocks higher.
Another clear divergence lies between long-term and short-term investor mindsets. Long-term investors continue to focus on factors such as gold prices, profitability, copper-lithium operations, and China-US tensions, while short-term holders are more concerned about whether they can defend the current price, whether averaging down is needed, and whether bull certificates should be held. This divergence shows that Zijin Mining still has fundamental support, but short-term trading confidence is declining.
Technically, Zijin Mining closed at 35.500 yesterday, below the middle Bollinger Band at 36.702, the 10-day moving average at 36.476, and the 20-day moving average at 36.702, indicating a short-term structure that remains weak. More importantly, the stock price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band at 34.953, suggesting that downside support is not far away, but no clear rebound confirmation has been seen yet.
In terms of trading volume, recent turnover has contracted, with no heavy selling pressure observed during the pullback. However, rebounds also lack strong trading volume support, indicating that funds have not significantly returned to the market. This explains why the market might feel 'good earnings but unable to rise': while fundamentals still hold potential, short-term funds are reluctant to confirm a direction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 37.595, still in the weak zone. Until it moves back above 50, any rebound should only be considered as technical recovery, not a trend reversal.
The key short-term level is 36.702. A break above this could restore some strength and test resistance at 38.451. Conversely, if it breaks below 34.953, market disappointment may intensify, and the stock could test further downside at 34.660.
Overall, Zijin Mining’s situation is not due to deteriorating fundamentals but reflects resource stocks testing investor confidence at higher levels. The short-term reward-to-risk ratio is low, and a defensive stance is recommended until 36.702 is reclaimed. Only by regaining the central axis will funds have reason to believe in a rebound.
Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:
$SG#ZIJINRC2609F.C (54977.HK)$$UB#ZIJINRP2812L.P (56727.HK)$
$CIZIJIN@EC2607B.C (27524.HK)$$UBZIJIN@EP2607A.P (25237.HK)$
From the perspective of gold mining peers, the market performance was mixed on the previous day (5th).， $CHIFENG GOLD (06693.HK)$ Up 2.53%， $ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$ A slight drop of 0.36%, $SD GOLD (01787.HK)$ A decrease of 1.34%. Technical signals showed a significant contrast: despite generally volatile stock prices, the technical indicator summary signals for Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and Chifeng Gold were all 'Strong Buy'. In comparison, $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ The technical signal is 'Neutral.' This indicates that Zijin Mining’s weak adjustment occurred in an environment where peers had generally extremely optimistic technical aspects and strong system ratings. Its 'neutral' signal contrasts sharply with its peers' 'strong buy,' precisely explaining from a technical perspective the market's confusion — 'Why is the stock price weak when the performance is not bad?' This divergence may imply that its fundamental strengths have not yet translated into synchronized strength on the technical side; funds are relatively cautious about it in the short term, or a clearer catalyst might be needed to reverse this situation. Zijin Mining closed at 35.500 on the previous day (5th), down 0.84%. Investors’ comments focused significantly on one question: the gold price remains high, and the performance is not bad, so why is the stock price still persistently weak? Market sentiment is not simply bearish but rather dominated by disappointment. Some investors think Zijin has 'fallen more than its peers' or 'has good performance but the stock price is falling,' and some even questioned whether the speculation on resource stocks has already...
From the perspective of gold mining peers, the market performance was mixed on the previous day (5th).， $CHIFENG GOLD (06693.HK)$ Up 2.53%， $ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$ A slight drop of 0.36%, $SD GOLD (01787.HK)$ A decrease of 1.34%. Technical signals showed a significant contrast: despite generally volatile stock prices, the technical indicator summary signals for Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and Chifeng Gold were all 'Strong Buy'. In comparison, $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ The technical signal is 'Neutral.' This indicates that Zijin Mining’s weak adjustment occurred in an environment where peers had generally extremely optimistic technical aspects and strong system ratings. Its 'neutral' signal contrasts sharply with its peers' 'strong buy,' precisely explaining from a technical perspective the market's confusion — 'Why is the stock price weak when the performance is not bad?' This divergence may imply that its fundamental strengths have not yet translated into synchronized strength on the technical side; funds are relatively cautious about it in the short term, or a clearer catalyst might be needed to reverse this situation. Zijin Mining closed at 35.500 on the previous day (5th), down 0.84%. Investors’ comments focused significantly on one question: the gold price remains high, and the performance is not bad, so why is the stock price still persistently weak? Market sentiment is not simply bearish but rather dominated by disappointment. Some investors think Zijin has 'fallen more than its peers' or 'has good performance but the stock price is falling,' and some even questioned whether the speculation on resource stocks has already...
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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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