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Weekly Outlook | US April Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate to be Released This Friday! Earnings from Palantir, Lumentum, AMD, CoreWeave and Others to be Announced

Overview of key events for the new week

– US April non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data released

The April non-farm payroll report to be released on Friday will show a robust increase of 60,000 new jobs, faster wage growth, a stable unemployment rate, and a rise in labor force participation.According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, private sector employment growth may be even stronger.This will not only mark the end of significant fluctuations in employment data during the first three months of the year but also signal that the job market is returning to a state better than the norm in 2025,when the average monthly private sector job growth was only 25,000.

So far, the US economy has proven resilient to oil shocks, with certain sectors even benefiting from the war – for instance, trade data will show a significant rise in US energy exports in April. One reason for the resilience in economic activity is that labor market conditions seem to be stabilizing and may even be improving. Job openings have remained steady overall, large companies are still hiring, though small businesses have not expanded their workforce.” Bloomberg analysts stated.

– Earnings reports released by Palantir, Lumentum, Coherent, AMD

The US earnings season will continue next week, with 121 companies in the S&P 500 set to release their reports.

Next week, market attention will shift toAMD, Palantir, Lumentum, Coreweaveand other companies' earnings reports.So far this earnings season, about 82% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded earnings expectations, up from 77% for the entire previous earnings season a year ago.

Tajinder Dhillon of LSEG Data & Analytics said that as of Friday,the overall earnings growth of the S&P 500 index is expected to increase by 27.8% year-over-year. This would be the highest profit growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021.

Chris Senyek, Chief Investment Strategist at Wolfe, wrote in a report on Friday: "As large-cap tech earnings show solid performance, adding more momentum to the AI theme, we believe investors may continue to chase areas such as semiconductors and memory seen as tech winners."

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi of UBS Group’s Chief Investment Office stated: "Both results and forward guidance have been good. The tech sector is leading the way, but earnings growth is broadening, supported by resilient consumer spending and signs of cyclical recovery."

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– Uncertainty looms over the Middle East! Trump mentioned the possibility of restarting airstrikes.

Eastern Time on the evening of the 2nd, Trump, during aninterview, stated that there is a possibility of the U.S. resuming airstrikes on Iran. He posted on social media, saying he would soon review Iran's latest proposal but 'can't imagine' it being 'acceptable,' and threatened that Iran 'has not paid a high enough price.'

Earlier in the day, before boarding Air Force One, Trump indicated he would provide clarification on Iran’s latest proposal later. Previously, Iranian sources suggested that Iran had submitted a plan containing 14items through Pakistan, as a response to the nine proposals put forward by the U.S.

– Trump: A 25% tariff on EU cars and trucks imported into the U.S.

According to CCTV News, on May 1 local time, U.S. President Trump stated that due to the EU’s failure to comply with the trade agreement reached between both parties, the United States will impose additional tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the EU starting next week (the week of May 4), raising the tax rate to 25%. Trump mentioned that companies producing locally in the U.S. would be exempt from the tariff.

– During Golden Week, Japan may intervene again in the yen exchange rate

During Golden Week (May 3 to 5), Japanese markets are closed, leading to significantly reduced liquidity, which has historically caused sharp currency fluctuations. Analysts warn that this period may again become a target for speculators or trigger further intervention by authorities in the foreign exchange market. On April 30, Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market for the first time in nearly two years, spending over $90 billion to buy yen, resulting in a 3% surge — the largest gain in four years. After the intervention ended, Japanese officials hinted at readiness to re-enter the market during Golden Week, keeping the market highly alert for another round of intervention.

– Following the interest rate decision meeting, permanent FOMC voter Williams and several other Federal Reserve officials will make public statements

At the policy meeting held on April 28-29, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected. Following the interest rate decision meeting, permanent FOMC voter Williams and several other Federal Reserve officials will speak publicly.

Nick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal reporter and 'Fed whisperer,' stated thatThe debate within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates has reached a critical turning point; officials are no longer arguing about when to resume rate cuts but have begun discussing the conditions under which rate hikes would be necessary.This shift is driven by the Fed’s realization that the energy shock caused by the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz differs from previous supply disruptions that could resolve themselves — months of high oil prices are enough to seep into broader price systems and shape inflation expectations among households and businesses, making the current accommodative stance difficult to sustain.

Key earnings calendar for the new week.

Monday (May 4)

Keywords: Monthly factory orders; Palantir; Tianxing Healthcare gray market

In terms of economic data,The US March factory orders month-over-month figure will be released.

22:00 US March factory orders month-over-month

In terms of earnings reports, $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ Earnings reports will be released after the US stock market closes.

In terms of new stocks, $STAR SPORTS MED (01609.HK)$ It will start on16:15Begin grey market trading.

Regarding market holidays,The Hong Kong stock market will operate as usual, while the A-share market will be closed. Both southbound and northbound trading will be suspended.

Tuesday (May 5)

Keywords: HSBC Holdings; AMD; Lumentum; US PMI; Tianxing Medical; Kefu Medical

In terms of economic data,Australia's central bank interest rate decision up to May 5, US March trade balance,Final value of S&P Global US Services PMI for April, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April, US JOLTs job openings for March, and annualized total new home sales in the US for March will be announced.

12:30 Australia's RBA interest rate decision up to May 5

20:30 US trade balance for March

21:45 US S&P Global Services PMI final reading for April

22:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April, US JOLTs job openings for March, US annualized new home sales total for March

In terms of major events, at 0:50,Permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech.

Regarding earnings reports, $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ Hong Kong stocks released earnings reports at noon, $Pfizer (PFE.US)$ 、 $PayPal (PYPL.US)$ US stocks released earnings reports before the market opened, $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ 、 $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ 、 $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ 、 $Tempus AI (TEM.US)$ 、 $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ 、 $Pan American Silver (PAAS.US)$ US stocks released earnings reports after the market closed.

In terms of new stocks, $STAR SPORTS MED (01609.HK)$ will officially go public.$COFOE MEDICAL (01187.HK)$ The after-hours trading session has started.

Regarding market holidays,Hong Kong stocks are trading as usual, while the A-share market is closed. Southbound and northbound trading links are shut down.

Wednesday (May 6)

Keywords: Crude oil; China PMI; ADP; Novo-Nordisk A/S; Applovin; Coherent; Keen Medical Devices

In terms of economic data,US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1, China's RatingDog services PMI for April, US ADP employment figures for April, and the US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 will be released.

4:30 AM - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1

9:45 AM - China's RatingDog services PMI for April

8:15 PM - US ADP employment figures for April

10:30 PM - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1

In terms of major events, at 21:30, Mussallem, a 2028 FOMC voter and President of the St. Louis Fed, will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

In terms of earnings reports, $Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$ 、 $Disney (DIS.US)$ 、 $Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ Earnings reports will be released before the US stock market opens. $Coherent (COHR.US)$ 、 $Applovin (APP.US)$ 、 $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$ 、 $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$ 、 $Albemarle (ALB.US)$ Earnings reports will be released after the US stock market closes.

In terms of new stocks, $COFOE MEDICAL (01187.HK)$ Officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Thursday (May 7)

Keywords: unemployment benefits; Rocket Lab; Coinbase; Applied Optoelectronics; CoreWeave

In terms of economic data,The number of US Challenger job cuts in April, the initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, the monthly construction spending rate for March, the EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending May 1, and the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectation for April will be released.

At 19:30, the number of US Challenger job cuts in April will be announced.

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 2

22:00 US Monthly Construction Spending for March

22:30 US EIA Natural Gas Inventory (in billion cubic feet) for the week ending May 1

23:00 New York Fed's 1-Year Inflation Expectation for April

On the major events front, 1:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference.

In terms of earnings, $Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ 、 $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI.US)$ 、 $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ 、 $IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ 、 $MP Materials (MP.US)$ 、 $Red Cat Holdings (RCAT.US)$ 、 $SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ will release its earnings report after the US stock market closes.

Friday (May 8)

Keywords: Non-farm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate; University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; LeDong Robotics

In terms of economic data,The US April non-farm payroll, unemployment rate, initial reading of the one-year inflation expectation for May, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May will be released as key data.

20:30 - US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (in ten thousand people), US April unemployment rate

22:00 - Initial reading of the US May one-year inflation expectation, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May, and US March wholesale sales month-over-month rate

In terms of major events, at 2:05,Hamarck, Cleveland Fed President and 2026 FOMC voter, will deliver a speech;3:30，Williams, permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President, will deliver a speech.

In terms of new stocks, $LDROBOT (01236.HK)$ After-hours trading begins.

Stay ahead on major financial events and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Financial Calendar/Selected macroeconomic data, seize the investment opportunity!

For a new week, wish all fellow investors successful investments!

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