Geely Auto receives a buy signal, short-term focus on the breakthrough of 22.6 yuan

From the perspective of the automobile manufacturing industry, market performance was mixed on the previous day (29th). $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Surged 8.74%, $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ Rose 4.44%, $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ Rose 3.36%, $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ Rose 2.57%, $GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$ Rose 2.06%, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ Rose 1.46%, only $GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ Slightly fell.

Technical signals show significant divergence: despite a general rise in stock prices, Geely Auto’s technical indicator summary signal is “Buy.” However, peers Nio and BYD have technical signals of “Sell,” while XPeng Motors shows a “Strong Buy.” This indicates that Geely's weak adjustment is occurring amidst a sector-wide rebound but with extreme divergence in individual stock technical ratings. Its “Buy” signal diverges from its relatively weak stock price, which usually suggests an underlying technical rebound support. However, the strength and sustainability of its rebound may be constrained by sector divergence (especially BYD's bearish signal as the leader). Investors need to observe whether funds will rotate from strongly signaled stocks (such as XPeng) to lagging stocks like Geely.

Geely Auto closed at 22.340 yesterday (29th), with short-term momentum weakening. The share price is below the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, and has failed to regain the middle Bollinger Band axis at 23.539, reflecting insufficient rebound strength. The current price is close to the support level at 22.244, indicating the stock has entered a short-term defensive zone.

Sentiment in comments remains subdued, with more investors believing the downward trend has not changed and upside potential for a pullback is limited. Some also question whether earnings or positive catalysts have failed to drive the stock price higher, reflecting weak market confidence in Geely's short-term outlook. On the other hand, some investors believe strong stocks have corrected enough, and after retail selling, there might be an opportunity for further upside, showing that some capital is still waiting for a rebound at lower levels.

Common questions focus on three points:

First, whether earnings or positive catalysts have already been priced in;

Second, whether it is feasible to re-enter near 22 yuan;

Third, whether Geely is just undergoing a correction or entering a weaker phase.

Technically, 22.244 is the key short-term support. As long as this level holds, there is still a chance to retest 22.636; however, if it fails to break above 22.636 and 23.539, the upward trend will not yet be confirmed. If 22.244 is broken, watch out for downside risk towards 20.927.

For short-term strategy, it’s not advisable to prematurely conclude a bottom has formed at this stage; instead, first observe whether 22.244 can hold. If it holds firm and breaks through 22.636, there will be conditions to test 23.539 again; if support is lost, short-term weakness will deepen further.

Reply to some investors' views:

@@豬氣冲天Falls through and then enters again.

If it breaks below 22.244, the next support to watch is 20.927; it may not be suitable for immediate aggressive buying.

@能干的爱迪生 Why is it still rising when there's no profit?

In the short term, stock prices reflect not only earnings but also capital flows and expectations.

@阿福头The downtrend remains intact, with limited upside for a rebound.

Currently still below the 23.539 threshold, the upside for a rebound is indeed restricted.

Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:

Key strategy: Hold above 22.244 and break through 22.636 for a short-term target of 23.539; if it breaks below 22.244, watch for a test of 20.927.

Strategy 1 | Rebound after holding 22.244

$CIGEELY@EC2612A.C (27337.HK)$ | Strike price 22.880 | Actual leverage 3.8x | Close to current price, suitable for initial rebound after solid support

$MSGEELY@EC2611A.C (27935.HK)$ | Strike price 23.990 | Actual leverage 4.6x | Higher leverage, suitable for amplifying returns during an accelerating rebound

$HSGEELY@EC2606A.C (20773.HK)$ | Strike price 24.750 | Actual leverage 9.3x | Aggressive high-leverage choice, suitable for capturing sharp short-term rebounds

Strategy Two | Rebound after breaking through 22.636

$GJGEELY@EC2606A.C (21621.HK)$ | Strike price 24.770 | Actual leverage 9.5x | Momentum amplification with high leverage after breakout

$BIGEELY@EC2609A.C (25051.HK)$ | Strike price 19.510 | Actual leverage 4.4x | Suitable for stable follow-up after confirming the breakout

$UBGEELY@EC2609A.C (24988.HK)$ | Strike price 19.510 | Actual leverage 4.1x | Moderate leverage, suitable for phased deployment targeting a rise to 23.539

Strategy Three | Deployment upon weakening after falling below 22.244

$BPGEELY@EP2610A.P (28278.HK)$ | Strike price 18.490 | Actual leverage 4.0x | Suitable for capturing downward retracement to 20.927 after breaking support

$UBGEELY@EP2610A.P (27780.HK)$ | Strike price 16.990 | Actual leverage 4.6x | High leverage, ideal for aggressive deployment during accelerating weakness

$CIGEELY@EP2610A.P (27436.HK)$ | Strike price 17.000 | Actual leverage 4.2x | Balanced choice, suitable for bearish outlook while managing volatility

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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