April 29 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 1 - Hang Seng Index, Meituan, China Mobile

1. Hang Seng Index: Investors expressed holding bullish certificates overnight with a stop-loss level at 25,650 points, anticipating post-May Day market movements. Bearish investors believe adding positions near the bearish zone is low-cost and consider 26,200 as the top resistance.

The current price of the Hang Seng Index (April 29) is 26,106.98, still above the moving averages overall, but facing short-term resistance at the 10-day line of 26,117.21, entering a phase of high-level consolidation. The index remains above the middle axis of the Bollinger Band at 25,807.05, with structure not weakening, but upward momentum needs confirmation before a breakout.

Technically, 25,807.05 serves as the short-term watershed; as long as it holds steady, the overall trend remains stable. Above this, 26,117.21 acts as the first key level. A re-breakthrough and stabilization above that would set the stage for further testing of the resistance zone at 26,754.11. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55.893, indicating neutral momentum without overheating, reflecting that there is still some upward potential in the market, though no clear breakthrough has formed yet.

In terms of short-term strategy, the tendency is to wait for a breakout confirmation. Stabilizing above 25807.05 and breaking through 26117.21 would be a sign of strengthening; if it falls below 25807.05, there is a need to guard against a retest of 25420.11, at which point the trend will turn weaker.

Some investors mentioned holding small long positions overnight with a stop-loss level at 25650 points, positioning for potential May Day market movements. Based on the current technical structure, the 25650 level is below the pivotal level of 25807.05, and once the index breaks below this level, the long position will face higher risk. Therefore, the key lies in whether the index can continue to stabilize above 25807.05; otherwise, the attractiveness of overnight positions will decline.

There are also bearish investors who see 26200 as the top pressure level and choose to deploy near bear certificates to reduce costs. From a technical perspective, the range between 26117.21 and 26200 indeed represents short-term resistance. Before an effective breakout occurs, taking a bearish stance has its logic. However, if the index successfully breaks out and stabilizes above this area, short sellers need to be more cautious to avoid the risk of a rebound squeeze. $BI#HSI RC28099.C (69160.HK)$$BI#HSI RC2809H.C (54679.HK)$

2. Meituan-W (03690.HK): Investors are asking how much more upside potential there is in the rebound? Some investors holding bearish warrants with a stop-loss price at 89 believe the rebound is over. Other investors holding bullish warrants have set a stop-loss price at 66.

Meituan-W’s current price is 83.150, and the short-term trend still appears to be consolidating weakly. Although the share price is above the 5-day line at 82.170, it remains below the 10-day line at 84.195, the 20-day line at 84.663, the 30-day line at 83.662, and the 60-day line at 84.104, indicating that the strength of the rebound has not yet been confirmed.

Technically, 84.663 is the short-term pivot and also the midpoint of the Bollinger Band. If the stock price can break through and stabilize above 84.663, the rebound target could extend to 89.777; if it fails to break through, the current situation should still be considered weak consolidation. The Relative Strength Index stands at 47.765, indicating momentum is not too weak but is still insufficient to confirm a strong reversal.

In terms of short-term strategy, 82.170 is the first support level. If it holds above 82.170 and breaks through 84.663, there is a chance to test 89.777 in the short term; if it falls below 82.170, one needs to be aware of the risk of testing 79.548.

Some investors are asking how much more upside potential there is in the rebound. Based on the current position, the key for the rebound lies at 84.663, and only after surpassing this level can we consider targeting 89.777; if it fails to break through 84.663, the upside potential remains limited.

Some investors hold bearish warrants with a stop-loss price at 89, believing that the rebound is over. Since 89.777 is the main resistance level above, the stop-loss level of 89 for bearish warrants is relatively close to the resistance zone. If the stock price breaks through 84.663 and continues to rebound, the associated risk for these bearish warrants will increase significantly.

Other investors hold bullish warrants with a stop-loss price at 66. Compared to the current price of 83.150, the distance from 66 offers relatively lower stop-loss risk. However, in the short term, attention should still be paid to the support level at 82.170, and if it falls below this level, the stock price may test 79.548. $BIMTUAN@EC2608B.C (25814.HK)$$UB#MTUANRC2701A.C (60462.HK)$$HSMTUAN@EC2608B.C (26109.HK)$$JP#MTUANRC2609G.C (63797.HK)$

3. China Mobile (00941.HK): Gradually moving upward, can it break through the target price of 100 dollars? Some investors hold bull certificates with a call price at 70 dollars.

China Mobile's current price is 85.450, showing strong short-term momentum. The stock price is above the 5-day line at 84.480, the 10-day line at 83.435, the 20-day line at 81.920, the 30-day line at 80.865, the 60-day line at 79.936, and the 250-day line at 83.053, maintaining a complete upward structure.

Technically, 85.733 represents the upper Bollinger Band, which is also the nearest short-term resistance level. If the price can break through 85.733 and stabilize above it, the uptrend may continue; otherwise, the stock price might consolidate at high levels in the short term. Immediate support is seen at 84.480, followed by 83.435, with a key pivot point set at 84.480.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 90.132, indicating overheating conditions. This reflects strong upward momentum but offers a low risk-reward ratio for chasing the stock higher in the short term, warranting caution over profit-taking risks at elevated levels.

Some investors are asking whether the gradual upward movement can break through the target price of 100 dollars. Based on the current technical position, the stock price must first break through 85.733 and remain above the 5-day line at 84.480 to sustain the upward trend; as for 100 dollars, it remains far from the current price and should not be considered a short-term target for now.

Some investors hold bull certificates with a call price at 70 dollars. Compared to the current price of 85.450, the 70-dollar level is relatively distant, posing a lower risk of being called away; however, since the Relative Strength Index already shows overheating, if the stock price falls below 84.480, short-term downward pressure could increase. $UB#C MOBRC2709B.C (60834.HK)$$BP#C MOBRC2809A.C (63847.HK)$$BI-CMOB@EC2609A.C (24413.HK)$$CI-CMOB@EC2607A.C (24937.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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