Alpha Call Episode 6 Live Broadcast Review | Asset Repricing Amid Global Changes: Where Are the Opportunities for Chinese Assets?

Guests for this episode:

Anping Lu | Founder of Radiant Investment

Hongchang Huang | Senior Industry Analyst at Futu Securities

Live broadcast review:

1 Will non-commercial disruptions like war undermine long-term investment logic? 01:28 - 11:15

Historical evidence shows that wars (such as the recent US-Iran conflict) have far less impact on major countries' stock markets than the economic and bull-bear cycles of the market itself, often causing only a short-term pullback of 10%-30%.

Judgment:The returns from long-term asset allocation will definitely come from commercial factors, and short-term declines caused by non-commercial disruptions should be seen as opportunities to increase positions; we cannot throw the baby out with the bathwater.

2 China's macro tone-setting: Why is 2026 seen as moving out of deflation? 11:16 - 19:54

Currently, most regions outside of China are either in stagflation or high inflation (e.g., the US, EU, Japan). China is almost the only major economy without an inflation constraint, possessing the most ample monetary policy space.

Core growth drivers:

- Demand side: Over the past five years, household savings deposits have surged by nearly 100 trillion yuan, and as expectations stabilize, purchasing power will gradually be released.

- Supply side: After prolonged losses across industries, the supply side has naturally cleared out.

3 Global asset repricing: The start of a long-term bull market or a century-high peak? 19:55 - 37:23

The long-term real return of stocks generally hovers around 5%, and with an inflation rate of 3%, the nominal long-term return typically falls between 8% and 10%.A bull market often marks the beginning of losses, while true excess returns come from taking significant positions at market bottoms.

Structural Opportunities in A-shares: How to Find the Real Dragon in the 'One-Nine Effect'? 40:41 - 50:30

Search forA select group of outstanding companies with global capabilities, pricing power, or significant cost advantages.Avoid companies with poor governance, reckless diversification, high debt ratios, and reliance solely on saturated domestic markets.

Conclusion: Among the 5,500 companies listed in the A-share market, only about 500 truly possess long-term investment value. The strategy should focus onheavily investing in these few quality companies at market bottoms and decisively reducing positions during periods of speculative bubbles.

Q&A Highlights

Q1: The recent positive turn in CPI/PPI— is it due to imported inflation caused by war, or does it reflect sustainable intrinsic momentum? 50:31 - 57:01

While the war-induced rise in oil prices has accelerated inflation, the fundamental driver remains intrinsic.However, industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, which are highly competitive, still face challenges in consolidation and may be among the last sectors to recover.

Q2: When will the AI bubble of US tech giants (M7) be disproven? 57:02 - 01:00:27

These giants' capital expenditures this year have reached 600 billion US dollars, and some companies' cash flow statements have already started to deteriorate. It is expected that by next year, substantial depreciation pressure will significantly weigh on income statements.

Q3: How to view the impact of domestic population aging on investment? 01:01:04 - 01:04:13

Investment must highly value whether its business model is excellent.Be cautious about companies heavily reliant on the domestic population base and only focused on domestic essential goods.

Q4: Which sectors in the A-share market are still in the 'first stage (valuation recovery)' of a bull market? 01:04:14 - 01:06:23

As overall economic expectations recover, some stocks that have not risen due to profit declines may present opportunities for valuation recovery.

Q5: Can the AI empowerment of US stock giants (such as improving ad conversion rates) offset huge depreciation costs? 01:06:24 - 01:09:50

Currently, AI lacks a mature commercial closed loop, differing from the 'low expenditure, high growth' model of the mobile internet era, whether on the consumer or enterprise side,revenue scale is far behind the explosive growth of capital expenditures.。

The above content was compiled by AI, based on the live broadcast transcript of the sixth episode of Golden Stock Insight Alpha Call.

$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03032.HK)$

212K Views