Pop Mart rebounds from the bottom, what is the risk-reward ratio for chasing in?

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Today's low touched 153.700 before rebounding, surging to a high of 160.200 yuan during trading; currently at 158.200, it has moved back above the 5-day line (155.500), but remains below the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines, indicating that the short-term trend is still weak. The current price is slightly above the middle axis of the Bollinger Band at 155.600, suggesting the stock price is moving from a weak zone toward a neutral region.

Comment highlights mainly focus on whether the price can stabilize near 150 yuan, whether there will be a major rebound, Duan Yongping’s interest in buying, and whether the price might fall further toward 140 or even 130. Some investors believe the current price represents a 'buy when others discard' opportunity or a phase of consolidation, with some choosing to add positions; however, others fear an accelerated decline if the price falls below 150, with targets as low as 108.

Market sentiment remains divided, but overall strength has yet to return. Optimists are focused on large buyers entering, support near 150, and hopes for a rebound to 170; pessimists, on the other hand, argue that upward movement is difficult, valuation remains controversial, and a break below 150 may lead to further tests down to 140 or 130.

Common questions focus on three points: whether 150 has support, whether the current price is worth adding positions, and whether there will be a short-term rebound back to 170. Technically, although the current price is close to the psychological level of 150, a true strengthening would require breaking back above 154.610 and 156.320; otherwise, it's just a weak rebound.

Technically, 155.610 is the short-term watershed. If Pop Mart can break back above 155.610 and 156.320, there may be a chance to retest 159.410, and if that level is breached, the next target would be 168.000. If 141.312 is lost, watch for a test near the low of 140.100. The Relative Strength Index is at 34.623, indicating weak short-term momentum, making the risk-reward ratio at current levels less favorable.

Key Deployment: A rebound can only be considered if 155.610 and 156.320 are reclaimed, with a potential test up to 159.410; if 141.312 is breached, caution is needed for a potential drop towards 140.100.

Strategy One | Rebound Deployment After Retaking 155.610

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike Price 186.88 | Actual Leverage 4.4x | Moderately Out-of-the-Money, Suitable for Following After Confirmation of Rebound $CTPOMRT@EC2609D.C (28018.HK)$ | Strike Price 186.78 | Actual Leverage 5.1x | Higher Flexibility, Suitable for Short-Term Accelerated Rebounds $HUPOMRT@EC2609B.C (28008.HK)$ | Strike Price 190.02 | Actual Leverage 5.6x | Higher Leverage, Suitable for Capturing Faster Upside Once Resistance Is Overcome

Strategy Two | Breakthrough 156.320 Targeting 159.410

$UBPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27929.HK)$ | Strike Price 180.10 | Actual Leverage 1.8x | Longer Tenor, Suitable for Trend-Following Deployment to Reduce Time Decay Pressure $GJPOMRT@EC2610B.C (27787.HK)$ | Strike Price 193.00 | Actual Leverage 5.0x | Larger Out-of-the-Money Space, Suitable for Extended Rebound After Breakthrough $BPPOMRT@EC2610C.C (27978.HK)$ ｜Strike price 193.10｜Actual leverage 5.1x｜Higher elasticity in the same range, suitable for short-term momentum trading after confirming a breakout

Strategy 3｜If 141.312 is breached, watch out for pullbacks

$UBPOMRT@EP2610A.P (28116.HK)$ ｜Strike price 138.88｜Actual leverage 3.0x｜Close to lower support levels, suitable for capturing pullbacks after support breaks $HUPOMRT@EP2609B.P (27726.HK)$ ｜Strike price 135.00｜Actual leverage 4.0x｜Higher leverage, suitable for enhancing defense once a downtrend is confirmed $GJPOMRT@EP2609B.P (28043.HK)$ ｜Strike price 116.78｜Actual leverage 4.0x｜Further away, suitable for targeting a continuation of the downtrend to lower levels

Reply to some investors' views:

@231771040To rebound to 170, it needs to first break through the resistance zone between 154.610 and 159.410

@西多士加可樂At this stage, no clear strengthening has occurred; hedging strategies are more prudent than single-sided trades

@NicerWeiIf 141.312 is breached, downside risks towards 140 or even lower will increase

@7528135For a short squeeze, it needs to reclaim 154.610 and 156.320; otherwise, upward momentum will be insufficient

@香港工人阶级If the decline continues, first check if there’s support at 141.312 and 140.100

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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