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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a post · Apr 29 11:00

Tencent is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, with 471.675 becoming the short-term stop-loss level

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The current price is 477.600, below the 5-day line at 489.000, the 10-day line at 501.300, the 20-day line at 498.100, and the 30-day line at 506.767. The short-term trend is clearly weak. The current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band at 471.675. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 24.746, nearing the oversold zone, a rebound cannot be confirmed until the price rises above 489.000.
Comments mainly focus on whether it will fall below 400, whether 450 will be reached, excessive bullish warrants, quantitative trading suppression, and whether there are funds buying up shares. Overall sentiment is clearly pessimistic, with many investors believing that the stock price will continue to drop, even expressing feelings of despair such as 'it's hopeless' or 'can't break even.' However, a few comments mention buy-ups, mysterious forces, and the possibility that Tencent could still support Hong Kong stocks.
Market sentiment is weak, with a strong sense of panic. The bearish side focuses on excessive bullish warrants, an early sharp decline, new lows in stock prices, and testing 450. The bullish side primarily hopes for capital inflows and a rebound from oversold conditions. However, the technical trend has not yet strengthened, and 489.000 remains the true short-term recovery point.
Common questions center around three points: First, whether 471.675 can hold; second, whether breaking below this level will test 465, 450, or even lower; third, whether it’s possible to go short or accumulate at a low point now. From a technical perspective, the current price is already close to the lower band, so blindly chasing the sell-off in the short term isn’t advisable. However, sufficient confirmation of a rebound isn’t present until the price rises back above 489.000.
Technically, Tencent needs to break back above 489.000 to have the conditions for a short-term technical rebound, with initial resistance seen at 498.100; if it fails to hold above 471.675, downward pressure will increase further, and there is a risk of falling to near 463 or lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold levels, indicating a possible rebound at any time, but the bearish trend has not yet reversed.
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The current price is 477.600, below the 5-day line at 489.000, the 10-day line at 501.300, the 20-day line at 498.100, and the 30-day line at 506.767. The short-term trend is clearly weak. The current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band at 471.675. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 24.746, nearing the oversold zone, a rebound cannot be confirmed until the price rises above 489.000. Comments mainly focus on whether it will fall below 400, whether 450 will be reached, excessive bullish warrants, quantitative trading suppression, and whether there are funds buying up shares. Overall sentiment is clearly pessimistic, with many investors believing that the stock price will continue to drop, even expressing feelings of despair such as 'it's hopeless' or 'can't break even.' However, a few comments mention buy-ups, mysterious forces, and the possibility that Tencent could still support Hong Kong stocks. Market sentiment is weak, with a strong sense of panic. The bearish side focuses on excessive bullish warrants, an early sharp decline, new lows in stock prices, and testing 450. The bullish side primarily hopes for capital inflows and a rebound from oversold conditions. However, the technical trend has not yet strengthened, and 489.000 remains the true short-term recovery point. Common questions center around three points: First, whether 471.675 can hold; second, whether breaking below this level will test 465, 450, or even lower; third, whether it’s possible to go short or accumulate at a low point now. From a technical perspective, the current price is already close to the lower band, so blindly chasing the sell-off in the short term isn’t advisable. However, sufficient confirmation of a rebound isn’t present until the price rises back above 489.000...
Key strategy: A break back above 489.000 is needed for a technical rebound, with initial upside seen at 498.100; if it falls below 471.675, be prepared for a further drop to near 463.
Call warrants: If you are optimistic about Tencent’s future performance, you may consider options with relatively higher leverage. Among them, $UBTENCT@EC2606A.C (14490.HK)$ the strike price is 500.5 yuan, offering about 13.5x leverage, suitable for investors looking to capture potential gains with higher leverage. Another option, $BITENCT@EC2606B.C (16242.HK)$ also has a strike price of 500.5 yuan, with leverage around 13.9x, also featuring higher leverage characteristics, and can serve as a reference for aggressive positioning.
For put warrants, if you are pessimistic or want to hedge risks, $UBTENCT@EP2608B.P (26702.HK)$ the strike price is 428.68 yuan, with leverage around 8.5x, notable for having the lowest premium and ideal implied volatility and leverage levels, balancing cost and effectiveness. $JPTENCT@EP2608B.P (27020.HK)$ The strike price is also 428.68 yuan, with leverage around 8.4x, relatively high leverage, making it suitable for investors seeking greater defensive amplification effects.
For bull contracts, , if you believe Tencent will rebound and want to control premium costs, $UB#TENCTRC2607U.C (58837.HK)$ The redemption price is 440 yuan, leverage is about 12.8 times, with the lowest premium and relatively higher actual leverage, effectively tracking the underlying stock movement. $JP#TENCTRC2609U.C (64229.HK)$ The redemption price is also 440 yuan, leverage is about 12.8 times, with high actual leverage and low premium, making it a highly efficient bullish tool.
For bear certificates, , if you expect Tencent to face adjustments, $SG#TENCTRP2811G.P (62250.HK)$ The redemption price is 506 yuan, leverage is about 14.6 times, with high actual leverage and low premium, suitable for bearish deployment. $JP#TENCTRP2811J.P (62157.HK)$ The redemption price is 508 yuan, leverage is about 13.7 times, with the lowest premium and relatively higher actual leverage, offering cost advantages as a choice in a weak market strategy.
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The current price is 477.600, below the 5-day line at 489.000, the 10-day line at 501.300, the 20-day line at 498.100, and the 30-day line at 506.767. The short-term trend is clearly weak. The current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band at 471.675. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 24.746, nearing the oversold zone, a rebound cannot be confirmed until the price rises above 489.000. Comments mainly focus on whether it will fall below 400, whether 450 will be reached, excessive bullish warrants, quantitative trading suppression, and whether there are funds buying up shares. Overall sentiment is clearly pessimistic, with many investors believing that the stock price will continue to drop, even expressing feelings of despair such as 'it's hopeless' or 'can't break even.' However, a few comments mention buy-ups, mysterious forces, and the possibility that Tencent could still support Hong Kong stocks. Market sentiment is weak, with a strong sense of panic. The bearish side focuses on excessive bullish warrants, an early sharp decline, new lows in stock prices, and testing 450. The bullish side primarily hopes for capital inflows and a rebound from oversold conditions. However, the technical trend has not yet strengthened, and 489.000 remains the true short-term recovery point. Common questions center around three points: First, whether 471.675 can hold; second, whether breaking below this level will test 465, 450, or even lower; third, whether it’s possible to go short or accumulate at a low point now. From a technical perspective, the current price is already close to the lower band, so blindly chasing the sell-off in the short term isn’t advisable. However, sufficient confirmation of a rebound isn’t present until the price rises back above 489.000...
Reply to some investors' views:
@5494929Breaking below 400 would require breaking through multiple support levels; for now, focus on whether 471.675 can hold.
@KennyLeungIf there is capital inflow, it still depends on whether the stock price can stabilize again at 489.000 for confirmation.
@抓时机做波段Tencent remains the core weight in Hong Kong stocks, but its short-term technical trend is currently weak.
@Quod Tango MutoIf it breaks below 471.675, the market will start focusing on risks near 450-460.
@Lam GorShorting on a rebound requires attention as it is approaching the oversold zone; the risk-reward ratio for chasing shorts may not be favorable.
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HKStocks #Real-TimeAnalysis #WarrantPick #WarrantGuide #DerivativesHedging #HKWarrantsJenny #TencentHoldings #00700 #Blue-ChipStocks #TechnicalAnalysis$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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