Can Alibaba hold the critical level of 127.3 as its rebound momentum weakens?

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Currently trading at 128.2, after briefly breaking below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, the rebound momentum has significantly weakened. The market sentiment is shifting from earlier bullish enthusiasm to观望 (wait-and-see) or even分歧 (disagreement). Although the stock price remains above the 20-day and 30-day moving averages, indicating that the mid-term structure hasn't completely deteriorated, until the resistance zone between 132.040 and 132.250 is reclaimed, the overall trend still reflects a consolidation pattern at higher levels.

Based on comments, market sentiment shows clear signs of分化 (divergence). Some investors believe there is support around 130, and as long as it doesn’t break below this level, there’s potential for another upward move, possibly testing 135 in the short term. However, others think the rally is over, even questioning the fundamentals, believing the current rise is more due to speculative capital rather than actual business improvement. Some funds have begun positioning themselves to buy on dips, waiting for entry points at 129, 119, or even 110, showing expectations about potential support levels.

Common questions focus on three aspects: First, whether 130 is a key support level and if a breakdown would lead to an accelerated decline; second, whether the short-term trend can challenge 135 or higher; third, whether fundamentals and themes like AI and cloud services can continue to support further upside.

Technically, 127.345 serves as a short-term分水岭 (watershed), also coinciding with the midpoint of the Bollinger Band. A breakdown below this level would signal weakening in the entire rebound structure, potentially leading to tests of lower levels like 124.8 or even lower. Conversely, if the price can reclaim 132.250, it may扭转 (reverse) the short-term weakness and retest the resistance zone around 139.092. Therefore, the risk-reward ratio is currently neutral, with the focus being on突破 (breakouts) or breakdowns within the range, rather than chasing entries in the middle.

Key Deployment: 127.345 is the watershed; holding steady could lead to a rebound, breaking through 132.250 would allow testing of 139.092, while a breach below would weaken and retest the range between 124.8 and 119.6.

Strategy One | Rebound Deployment After Holding Steady at 127.345

$UBALIBA@EC2607E.C (26541.HK)$ | Strike Price 137.09 | Actual Leverage 8.3x | Close to current price above, high elasticity, suitable for short-term rebound operations after stabilization.

$UBALIBA@EC2609E.C (27406.HK)$ | Strike Price 150.98 | Actual Leverage 6.4x | Mid-distance out-of-the-money, suitable for holding during extended rebounds. $UBALIBA@EC2609B.C (26544.HK)$ | Strike Price 145.98 | Actual Leverage 5.9x | Balanced leverage and distance, suitable for stable rebound deployment.

Strategy Two | Chasing Momentum After Breaking Through 132.250

$UBALIBA@EC2607E.C (26541.HK)$ | Strike Price 137.09 | Actual Leverage 8.3x | High sensitivity momentum chasing after a breakout, capturing the first phase of upward movement. $GJALIBA@EC2608C.C (26552.HK)$ | Strike Price 150.09 | Actual Leverage 7.3x | Mid-to-high leverage configuration, suitable for acceleration phase post-breakout. $UBALIBA@EC2608F.C (26538.HK)$ | Strike Price 150.09 | Actual Leverage 6.8x | More stable structure, suitable for holding until resistance zone post-breakout.

Strategy Three | Weakening Deployment After Falling Below 127.345

$UBALIBA@EP2607A.P (20367.HK)$｜Strike Price 130｜Actual Leverage 6.0x｜Close to the current price area, suitable for capturing early pullbacks after a breakdown$UBALIBA@EP2607B.P (24646.HK)$｜Strike Price 122.78｜Actual Leverage 5.9x｜Mid-distance out-of-the-money, suitable for deploying on an extended downtrend$BPALIBA@EP2608A.P (24449.HK)$｜Strike Price 122.88｜Actual Leverage 5.9x｜More stable structure, suitable for expecting deeper pullbacks and reducing volatility risks

Reply to some investors

@AICryptoYJDouyin's large model and chips; the focus has temporarily shifted to chips, with noticeable capital rotation, which is also one of the reasons for Alibaba's recent loss of momentum.

@Wait 1123If 130 holds, it will surge towards 130, a psychological level, but the real key is 127.345; only holding above that can create conditions for a rebound.

@草堂先生Need to observe whether 127.345 can hold; otherwise, risks will begin to rise.

@我最孤独How many shorts have been placed in this wave? It’s difficult to buy continuously. Selling pressure is heavy in the resistance zone; a sustained upward trend cannot form until a breakout occurs.

@税将军Is it about to change direction? The key lies at 127.345; a breakdown signals weakening momentum.

Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

#HKStocks #Real-TimeAnalysis #WarrantPick #WarrantGuide #DerivativesHedging #HKWarrantsJenny #Alibaba #09988 #Blue-ChipStocks #TechnicalAnalysis$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$

136K Views